Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS St. Louis, MO

182 
WWUS53 KLSX 190924
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
424 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

MOC151-190934-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170519T0945Z/
Osage MO-
424 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3874 9165 3877 9157 3887 9102 3887 9099
      3855 9097 3791 9064 3795 9134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 261DEG 52KT 3866 9133 3798 9102 

$$

MOC055-071-073-139-219-221-190945-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170519T0945Z/
Crawford MO-Montgomery MO-Washington MO-Franklin MO-Warren MO-
Gasconade MO-
424 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON...FRANKLIN...WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 424 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southeast of Hermann to 8 miles southeast of
Anthonies Mill, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Union, Warrenton, Sullivan, St. Clair, Cuba, Wright City,
Owensville, Potosi, Hermann, New Haven, Steelville, Bourbon,
Anthonies Mill, Gerald, Marthasville, Truesdale, Innsbrook, Parkway
and Rosebud.

This also includes  Onondaga Cave State Park, Deutschheim Historic
Site, and Meramec State Park.
 
This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 210 and 247.
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 193 and 200.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9165 3877 9157 3887 9102 3887 9099
      3855 9097 3791 9064 3795 9134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 261DEG 52KT 3866 9133 3798 9102 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Tilly

106 
WWUS53 KLSX 190944
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
444 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

MOC055-071-073-139-219-221-190953-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170519T0945Z/
Crawford MO-Montgomery MO-Washington MO-Franklin MO-Warren MO-
Gasconade MO-
444 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...FRANKLIN...WARREN AND
NORTHEASTERN GASCONADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 AM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds are still possible with
these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Missouri.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
eastern portions of Warren, Franklin and Washington counties. 

LAT...LON 3874 9165 3877 9157 3887 9102 3887 9099
      3855 9097 3791 9064 3795 9134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 261DEG 52KT 3870 9100 3802 9069 

$$

Tilly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
352 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Severe potential remains the main forecast issue for today and
tonight. As of 08z, storms along warm front continue to lift
northward into northeast MO/west central IL while MCS over western
MO has moved into central MO. Complex to track eastward, reaching
metro area between 5 am and 8 am, then out of forecast area by mid
morning. Still feel that there will be a bit of a break in the
activity from mid morning through early afternoon. Only concern is
will the atmosphere recover from this activity. Models still giving
mixed signals with some indicating MU CAPES well over 2500 J/kg,
while others now show little or no atmospheric recovery. For now
will go with low end chance pops for areas along and north of I-70,
higher pops south.

By mid afternoon, storms to refire to our west and southwest,
eventually increasing in coverage and tracking northeast through
forecast area through tonight. A few strong to severe storms are
still possible during this period with the main focus along the warm
front which will remain stalled over I-70 corridor.

As for temperatures today, will be dependent on cloud cover,
precipitation and location of warm front. For now they will range
from the mid 60s far north to the low 80s along and south of I-70.
Lows tonight will be mild once again, in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

(Saturday through Sunday)

Period begins with convection most likely exiting, or soon to exit,
the CWA as the leading s/w lifts out of the area. At the sfc, a low
shud be somewhere over nwrn MO or nern KS. Aloft, a slightly
negatively tilted trof is expected from Saskatchewan swd into the
Great Plains region. The sfc low is projected to lift nnewd into WI
by the evening with the cdfnt pushing ewd thru the area as the
system begins to occlude.

A number of questions still exist regarding evolution of convection
during the day. Would expect at least a short lull period after the
morning convection with another round later in the day. However,
with stronger forcing further west, this lull may be very short
lived. Any severe potential still appears to remain east of the
Mississippi River where the effective fnt shud reside. Regardless,
the cdfnt shud push all precip east of the CWA by Midnight Sunday.

Behind the fnt, a much cooler sfc ridge will build into the region
for Sun. This ridge will keep the area dry with temps struggling to
reach the 70s. Have still trended twd the warmer guidance for Sun
given ample insolation and deep mixing.

(Monday through Thursday)

Mdls begin the period in fairly good agreement. By the middle of
next week, differences appear, tho mainly timing issues. After the
sfc ridge pushes east out of the area during the day Mon, a s/w
rounding the base of the upper trof is expected to bring a chance of
rain ahead of a fast moving clipper system.

With the region under persistent NW flow and a strong sfc ridge
likely settling south of the region, expect temps to be well below
seasonal avg for much of next week.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Main TAF concern will be convective trends overnight into Friday.
We continue to watch two main lines of convection, one across
northwest MO and another entering southwest MO. These lines should
slowly weaken with time, but will likely hold together enough to
bring a round of showers/storms to all terminals overnight into
Friday morning. IFR vsbys and locally gusty winds will be the main
impact as these storms move through. How exactly convection
evolves tonight will affect the forecast today, but latest
guidance suggests today may end up being a bit drier than
previously forecast, so have trended the TAFs drier for the
afternoon hours. Outside of any convection, UIN looks to be on
the cool side of a warm front bisecting the state, thus some MVFR
cigs appear likely. COU/SUS/STL/CPS will remain to the south of
the synoptic boundary, thus VFR cigs are expected through the
period outside of convection.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
We continue to watch convection across western MO. Latest
indications are this convection will weaken as it approaches STL,
but should still hold together enough to bring a period of -TSRA
and MVFR/IFR vsbys early this morning. Any convection should taper
off to showers by late this morning, with the afternoon trending
drier. Any cigs outside of convection will be VFR with ESE winds
expected through the period.

KD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     82  68  81  56 /  70  80  60  50
Quincy          70  62  78  51 /  80  90  60  30
Columbia        80  64  76  50 /  70  90  50  20
Jefferson City  82  65  78  51 /  70  90  50  20
Salem           81  67  82  59 /  70  60  70  70
Farmington      82  68  80  56 /  70  80  60  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
332 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
332 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across much of
the area. The primary threat is large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe storms are possible Friday morning through Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight. Spotters are encouraged
to report any severe weather, if observed, to the National
Weather Service.

Gosselin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 AM     HAIL             CALIFORNIA              38.63N  92.57W
05/19/2017  E0.88 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700396

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
326 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     HAIL             JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N  92.19W
05/19/2017  E0.70 INCH       COLE               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700397

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
328 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     HAIL             JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N  92.19W
05/19/2017  E1.00 INCH       COLE               MO   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700398

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE JEFFERSON CITY     38.59N  92.16W
05/19/2017  M43 MPH          CALLAWAY           MO   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700399

BYRD