Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS St. Louis, MO

763 
WWUS53 KLSX 282233
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
433 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

ILC133-157-MOC186-282243-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170228T2245Z/
Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Ste. Genevieve MO-
433 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MONROE...NORTHWESTERN
RANDOLPH AND NORTH CENTRAL STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southwestern
Illinois...and southeastern and east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3801 9020 3809 9022 3811 9026 3812 9025
      3816 9028 3818 9030 3818 9033 3821 9035
      3828 8996 3803 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 255DEG 40KT 3819 8990 

$$

Kanofsky

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
302 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Cold front extends from a surface low over southeastern IA southwest
into the OK Panhandle.  A wind advisory is in effect across parts of
northeast and central MO and west central IL where very strong wind
gusts were occurring due to a tight surface pressure gradient and
momentum transfer to the surface underneath a strong southwest low
level jet.  Tornado watches have been issued for our forecast area
for the rest of the afternoon into the early evening hours.
Sufficient wind shear/instability exists for scattered supercells in
the warm sector capable of large hail, damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes late this afternoon and early this evening.  As an upper
level trough over the Plains approaches, the cold front will drop
southeastward through our forecast area tonight.  A greater coverage
of storms is expected along this front with the potential for more
severe storms late this evening and into the overnight hours.  The
primary threat with this second round of storms will be damaging
winds.  The threat of severe storms should end by early Wednesday
morning with lingering showers and a few storms across southeast MO
and southwest IL until late morning. Colder temperatures can be
expected tonight across northeast MO due to cold air advection
behind the cold front, then colder conditions for the entire area on
Wednesday with only a small diurnal rise in temperatures expected.
The sky should gradually clear out from southwest to northeast late
Tuesday morning and afternoon as a surface ridge builds
southeastward into our area behind the cold front, and as the upper
level trough begins to shift northeast of our area.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

(Wednesday night - Next Monday night)

High pressure over the area begins to push east Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning ahead an approaching short wave trough. The
short wave trough will swing through NE MO/WC IL but will likely be
a dry passage. The dry weather will persist till late Sunday night
into Monday as another frontal boundary passes through the region
providing chances of showers and thunderstorms. The front departs
the area on Monday night and high pressure slides into the region
from the Northern Plains.

Temperatures will return to seasonal values on Thursday and Friday,
then once again go above seasonal norms for the reminder of the
forecast period.

Kelly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Convection timing and coverage will be the main focus of this TAF
period. MVFR stratus continues to mix out late this morning, and
expect all cigs to be VFR in the next one to two hours. As the low
cigs are lost, southerly winds will become rather gusty (gusts of
30+ knots possible at times). As a system approaches from the
west, scattered convection is expected to break out across
portions of western and central MO late this afternoon, spreading
eastward through this evening. This convection will bring strong
gusty winds along with reduced cigs/vsbys if it happens to pass
over any site. More widespread thunderstorm activity is then
expected overnight along a cold front sweeping through the region.
Any passing storm will likely drop cigs/vsbys to IFR thresholds.
Otherwise, expect a wind shift to westerly by Wednesday morning as
the front pushes through, along with the potential for some
additional MVFR cigs behind the front.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Convection timing and coverage will be the main focus of this TAF
period. MVFR stratus continues to mix out late this morning, and
expect cigs to be VFR in the next one to two hours. As the low
cigs are lost, southerly winds will become rather gusty (gusts of
around 30 knots possible at times). As a system approaches from
the west, scattered convection is expected to break out across
portions of western and central MO late this afternoon, spreading
eastward toward STL around 00Z. This convection will bring strong
gusty winds along with reduced cigs/vsbys if it happens to pass
over the terminal. Another round of more widespread thunderstorm
activity is then expected overnight along a cold front sweeping
through the region. Any passing storm will likely drop cigs/vsbys
to IFR thresholds. Otherwise, expect a wind shift to westerly by
Wednesday morning as the front pushes through, along with the
potential for some additional MVFR cigs behind the front.

KD

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Temperatures For Tuesday 2/28

Record Highs    Record High Lows

STL 80/1972     STL 54/1895
COU 75/1972     COU 52/1895
UIN 68/1932     UIN 40/1987

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
     Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Adams IL-Brown IL-
     Pike IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
333 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
333 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely across the region. The greatest
risk is across southeast and east-central Missouri northeastward
into southwest and central Illinois. Severe weather threats
include very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Several
strong, long track tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a heightened fire danger for much of the area north of
Interstate 70 on Thursday afternoon due to low relative humidity
values, dry fuels, and gusty westerly winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and tonight.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
254 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             7 S STEELVILLE          37.87N  91.36W
02/28/2017  M1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700121

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 NW CADET              38.00N  90.70W
02/28/2017  M1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700122

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             7 WNW POTOSI            37.97N  90.90W
02/28/2017  M1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700123

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 SE CADET              37.93N  90.61W
02/28/2017                   ST. FRANCOIS       MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVED FROM THE ENTRANCE TO TERRE DU LAC
            LAKE...LOOKING DUE NORTH

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700124

MILLER