River Flood Warning 83, NWS St. Louis, MO

957 
WGUS83 KLSX 010248
FLSLSX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
948 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Missouri River at Jefferson City

  Missouri River near Chamois

  Missouri River at Hermann

  Osage River near St. Thomas

  Missouri River at Gasconade

  Missouri River at Washington

  Missouri River at St. Charles

.This Flood Warning is a result of very heavy rainfall the past 
few days and less than a tenth of an inch forecast in the next 
24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC019-027-051-135-020248-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-170503T0712Z/
/JFFM7.1.ER.170430T1537Z.170501T0145Z.170502T0712Z.NO/
948 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Jefferson City
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 24.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early Tuesday morning.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...The levee protecting McBaine is breached 
  near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Missouri River
  Jefferson City  23.0   24.78      24.4   22.6   20.3   17.9   16.1

&&

LAT...LON 3899 9255 3890 9260 3853 9222 3855 9192
      3864 9198                       
      
$$

MOC027-151-020248-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-170506T1047Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170501T1800Z.170504T2247Z.NO/
948 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* until late Friday night.
* At 7:00 AM Sunday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 25.7 feet by Monday 
  early afternoon, then fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 26.0 feet...Highway 100 between St. Aubert and Chamois 
  begins flooding due to creek backwater.  Near this height, Missouri
  Highway 94 will be closed from Route PP to Bluffton.  The Jacobs 
  and Tebbetts East levees near Tebbetts are overtopped near this 
  level.
* Impact:  At 25.7 feet...The Chamois levee just west of Chamois is 
  overtopped near this height.
* Impact:  At 25.6 feet...Highway 100 just west of Chamois begins 
  flooding near this level.
* Impact:  At 25.5 feet...Levee A-1 just east of Chamois is overtopped
  near this level.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...Both sections of the Chamois levee system 
  just upstream of Chamois are overtopped near this level.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   22.10      25.6   24.7   20.9   17.9   16.2

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3868 9164 3873 9164
      3871 9185                       

$$

MOC073-139-020248-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.170429T0827Z.170501T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* until further notice.
* At 7:10 AM Sunday the stage was 29.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 33.5 feet by 
  Monday early afternoon. Additional rises may be possible 
  thereafter.
* Impact:  At 33.0 feet...The Diermann levee about 4 miles upstream of
  Gasconade will overtop near this height.
* Impact:  At 32.5 feet...Highway 100 between Morrison and State Route
  Z begins flooding near this level.
* Impact:  At 32.0 feet...The east end of Oak Street in Gasconade 
  begins flooding near this level.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   29.70      33.4   33.3   30.6   27.0   24.8

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       

$$

MOC073-139-020248-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170507T1200Z/
/HRNM7.2.ER.170430T0220Z.170501T1800Z.170506T1200Z.NO/
948 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann
* until Sunday May 7.
* At 8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 30.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 32.1 feet by Monday early 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact:  At 32.5 feet...Hermann Ford and a vacant grocery store on 
  6th Street begin flooding near this level.
* Impact:  At 32.3 feet...Market Street (Highway 19) begins flooding 
  near the bridge over Frene Creek.
* Impact:  At 31.5 feet...Just northeast of Morrison, the Morrison 
  Lower levee is overtopped near this height.
* Impact:  At 30.8 feet...Near this height, Missouri State Highway 94 
  between Missouri Highway 19 and Route B will be closed in both 
  directions.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   30.25      31.8   32.1   32.1   29.8   26.1

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3861 9123 3866 9119
      3875 9136                       

$$

MOC071-219-020248-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WHGM7.2.ER.170430T0639Z.170501T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Washington
* until further notice.
* At 8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 27.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 29.4 feet by Monday evening.
* Impact:  At 29.5 feet...The Labadie Bottoms Section Five levee just 
  downstream of the Ameren UE Labadie Power Plant is overtopped near 
  this height.
* Impact:  At 29.4 feet...West Main and Tiemannn Drive begins flooding
  near this height.
* Impact:  At 29.0 feet...State Highway 47 begins to flood near 
  Augusta Bottom Road and at Lake Creek Bridge near the Highway 94 
  turnoff to Dutzow.
* Impact:  At 28.5 feet...Near this height...Missouri Highway 94 is 
  closed 1.5 miles southwest of Matson.
* Impact:  At 28.3 feet...The railroad crossing at Lafayette Street 
  floods near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Missouri River
  Washington      20.0   27.15      29.3   29.3   29.1   28.2   24.6

&&

LAT...LON 3866 9119 3861 9123 3851 9089 3859 9072
      3865 9078                       

$$

MOC183-189-020247-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCLM7.2.ER.170430T1120Z.170502T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
948 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at St. Charles
* until further notice.
* At 9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 29.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 34.7 feet by early Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact:  At 35.0 feet...The levee at the Highway 370 bridge overtops
  near this height.  Missouri State Route F northwest of Defiance 
  along Femme Osage Creek will be closed near this height.
* Impact:  At 34.5 feet...Missouri Highway 94 near Route H will be 
  closed in both directions near this height.
* Impact:  At 33.9 feet...MK&T Railroad tracks flood.
* Impact:  At 33.5 feet...Highway 94 floods downstream of St Charles.
* Impact:  At 33.0 feet...Up to 7 non-Federal levees are overtopped.  
  (USACE)
* Impact:  At 32.5 feet...The west end of Greens Bottom Road floods.  
  This road connects Pittman Hill Road and Jungs Station Road south 
  of 94.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Missouri River
  St. Charles     25.0   29.69      33.9   34.7   34.3   33.7   30.3

&&

LAT...LON 3865 9078 3859 9072 3881 9017 3886 9018
      3891 9033                       

$$

MOC051-020247-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170503T0736Z/
/STTM7.1.ER.170430T1935Z.170501T0600Z.170502T0736Z.NO/
948 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Osage River near St. Thomas
* until late Tuesday night.
* At  8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 24.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 25.3 feet by Monday morning, 
  then fall below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Near this height, Route W in Cole County 
  will be closed in both directions.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Osage River
  St. Thomas      23.0   24.46      25.3   21.9   17.2   16.9   16.8

&&

LAT...LON 3823 9262 3815 9262 3829 9213 3855 9194
      3854 9207                       

$$

623 
WGUS83 KLSX 011542
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1042 AM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Osage River near St. Thomas

.This Flood Warning is a result of up to a tenth of an inch 
of rainfall the past 24 hours and up to a tenth of an  inch
forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC051-021542-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170503T1054Z/
/STTM7.1.ER.170430T1935Z.170501T1400Z.170502T1054Z.NO/
1042 AM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Osage River near St. Thomas
* until late Tuesday night.
* At  9:45 AM Monday the stage was 25.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Near this height, Route W in Cole County 
  will be closed in both directions.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...At least two farm houses become cut off by 
  the rising water near the mouth of Profits Creek.
* Impact:  At 17.0 feet...At least 5 acres of farmland are flooded 
  near the mouth of Profits Creek downstream of the gauge.
* Impact:  At 16.5 feet...Water begins flooding the bank near Profits 
  Creek mouth downstream of the gauge.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Osage River
  St. Thomas      23.0   25.31      22.6   17.2   16.9   16.8   16.8


&&


LAT...LON 3823 9262 3815 9262 3829 9213 3855 9194
      3854 9207                       



$$

374 
WGUS83 KLSX 020158
FLSLSX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
858 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Missouri River at Jefferson City

  Missouri River near Chamois

  Missouri River at Hermann

  Missouri River at Washington

  Missouri River at St. Charles

  Osage River near St. Thomas

  Missouri River at Gasconade

.This Flood Warning is a result of very heavy rainfall the past
few days and zero forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC019-027-051-135-030158-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-170506T0130Z/
/JFFM7.2.ER.170430T1537Z.170502T1200Z.170505T0130Z.NO/
858 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Jefferson City
* until Friday evening.
* At 7:45 PM Monday the stage was 26.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 27.1 feet by Tuesday morning, 
  then fall below flood stage Thursday evening.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...Near this height, Highway 94 near Portland 
  begin flooding.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Missouri River
  Jefferson City  23.0   26.67      27.1   25.5   23.6   22.3   20.3

&&

LAT...LON 3899 9255 3890 9260 3853 9222 3855 9192
      3864 9198                       

$$

MOC027-151-030157-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-170507T1930Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170501T2200Z.170506T0730Z.NO/
858 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 5:00 PM Monday the stage was 26.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early Saturday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   26.30      25.6   22.5   19.5   18.1   16.7

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3868 9164 3873 9164
      3871 9185                       

$$

MOC073-139-030157-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GSCM7.2.ER.170429T0827Z.170502T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
858 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* until further notice.
* At 6:34 AM Monday the stage was 34.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 34.1 feet early 
  Tuesday morning.  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   34.00      33.9   32.3   28.7   26.9   25.4

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       

$$

MOC073-139-030157-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170507T1948Z/
/HRNM7.2.ER.170430T0220Z.170503T0600Z.170506T1948Z.NO/
858 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 7:30 PM Monday the stage was 32.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 32.8 feet by early Wednesday 
  morning, then fall below flood stage Saturday early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 32.5 feet...Hermann Ford and a vacant grocery store on 
  6th Street begin flooding near this level.
* Impact:  At 32.3 feet...Market Street (Highway 19) begins flooding 
  near the bridge over Frene Creek.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   32.04      32.3   32.7   30.0   27.2   22.6

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3861 9123 3866 9119
      3875 9136                       

$$

MOC071-219-030157-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-170508T0100Z/
/WHGM7.2.ER.170430T0639Z.170503T1200Z.170506T1300Z.NO/
858 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Washington
* until Sunday evening.
* At 7:45 PM Monday the stage was 28.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 28.8 feet by Wednesday morning,
  then fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact:  At 28.5 feet...Near this height...Missouri Highway 94 is 
  closed 1.5 miles southwest of Matson.
* Impact:  At 28.3 feet...The railroad crossing at Lafayette Street 
  floods near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Missouri River
  Washington      20.0   27.99      28.2   28.8   26.8   23.8   20.2

&&

LAT...LON 3866 9119 3861 9123 3851 9089 3859 9072
      3865 9078                       

$$

MOC183-189-030157-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-170507T2212Z/
/SCLM7.2.ER.170430T1120Z.170504T0000Z.170506T2212Z.NO/
858 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at St. Charles
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 8:30 PM Monday the stage was 31.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 33.2 feet by Wednesday evening,
  then fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 33.0 feet...Up to 7 non-Federal levees are overtopped.  
  (USACE)
* Impact:  At 32.5 feet...The west end of Greens Bottom Road floods.  
  This road connects Pittman Hill Road and Jungs Station Road south 
  of 94.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Missouri River
  St. Charles     25.0   31.78      32.2   32.9   32.7   29.4   26.6

&&

LAT...LON 3865 9078 3859 9072 3881 9017 3886 9018
      3891 9033                       

$$

MOC051-030157-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170503T0807Z/
/STTM7.1.ER.170430T1935Z.170501T1400Z.170502T0807Z.NO/
858 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Osage River near St. Thomas
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 7:45 PM Monday the stage was 24.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  midday Tuesday.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Osage River
  St. Thomas      23.0   24.90      21.0   13.7   13.7   14.5   14.5

&&

LAT...LON 3823 9262 3815 9262 3829 9213 3855 9194
      3854 9207                       

$$

191 
WGUS83 KLSX 021024
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
524 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Osage River near St. Thomas

.This Flood Warning is a result of very heavy rainfall over the last few days. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC051-031024-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170503T1426Z/
/STTM7.1.ER.170430T1935Z.170501T1400Z.170502T1426Z.NO/
524 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Osage River near St. Thomas
* until Wednesday morning.
* At  4:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 24.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late this morning.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Near this height, Route W in Cole County 
  will be closed in both directions.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06  05/07

Osage River
  St. Thomas      23.0   24.34      24.1   13.7   13.7   14.5   14.5


&&


LAT...LON 3823 9262 3815 9262 3829 9213 3855 9194
      3854 9207                       



$$

738 
WGUS83 KLSX 021930
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Osage River near St. Thomas



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC051-022000-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170503T1426Z/
/STTM7.1.ER.170430T1935Z.170501T1400Z.170502T1800Z.NO/
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Osage River near St. Thomas.
* At  1:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 22.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  1:00 PM Tuesday.
* The river will continue falling to 17.3 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Near this height, Route W in Cole County 
  will be closed in both directions.

                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06  05/07

Osage River
  St. Thomas      23.0   22.53      17.3   15.8   16.8   15.6   15.0


&&


LAT...LON 3823 9262 3815 9262 3829 9213 3855 9194
      3854 9207                       



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
441 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Periods of SHRA/TSRA with heavy rain will continue across the area
today, and severe thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half
of the CWA this afternoon.

The stalled boundary which has been responsible for the widespread
heavy rain across the region will finally move out of the area this
afternoon and tonight. The eastern portion of the boundary will lift
northward as a warm front and pivot about the surface low while the
western portion of the boundary moves eastward as a N-S oriented
cold front. A persistent southerly LLJ will continue to funnel
moisture over the warm front this morning, resulting in continued
SHRA/TSRA today which should gradually shift northward/northwestward
with the movement of the surface boundary. Precipitation should
finally begin to taper off tonight once the occluding system has
moved away from the region. Forecast PW values remain at +3SD for
April, therefore the threat for heavy rainfall will continue
today/tonight.

Even with limited warm sector instability due to cloud cover and
precipitation, there are several factors which would still support
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon across the eastern
half of the CWA. These factors include steep H7-H5 lapse rates due
to cold air aloft, large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper
low, forcing associated with the cold front, timing of the cold
frontal passage during peak heating, and 0-6km shear values of 30-
60+kts.

Temperature trends today will follow complex rising/falling patterns
due to the lifting warm front across the northern CWA, the
approaching cold front across the western CWA, and influences from
ongoing precipitation and cloud cover. In general, highs today will
range from around 60 to the mid-70s, but the daily high temperature
will occur at different times for different locations. Temperatures
should fall into the 40s areawide tonight within the cooler post-
frontal air mass.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Lingering light rain can be expected on Monday, mainly across
northeast MO and west central IL, associated with the deformation
zone/wrap-around moisture on the backside of the upper level and
associated surface low moving northeastward into the Great Lakes
region.  It will also be windy on Monday due to the tight surface
pressure gradient.  High temperatures on Monday will be around 15
degrees below normal due to cold 850 mb temperatures below zero
degrees C during the morning hours, along with low level cloud cover
hindering solar insolation.  Any rain should shift northeast of the
forecast area by Monday evening as the upper level and associated
surface low move well northeast of the region. Warmer, more normal
high temperatures are expected on Tuesday with well deserved
sunshine and dry conditions.  The dry weather will be fairly short
lived though as showers will spread eastward into our forecast area
by late Tuesday night, particularly across central and southeast MO
and southwest IL as low-mid level warm air advection increases
across this area over an 850 mb front and north of a surface front
as well as ahead of an approaching upper level trough.  Upper level
divergence will also increase over this area ahead of the
approaching upper level trough.  Showers will continue on Wednesday
with the highest pops and QPF still across central and southeast MO
and southwest IL as the deepening upper level trough approaches with
at least a weak surface wave developing along the surface front
south of the forecast area.  The model solutions begin to diverge
after Wednesday with the ECMWF model being more progressive with the
upper level trough causing much of the precipitation to shift
southeast of our forecast area by late Wednesday night with only
some patchy light rain Thursday on the backside of the deep upper
level trough.  The GFS model is less progressive as it closes off an
upper level low in the base of the upper level trough by Thursday
and keeps precipitation going across southeast MO and southwest IL
as late as Friday evening.  With model uncertainty and differences
for now will gradually reduce pops beginning Wednesday night and
begin shifting them southeast with time down to only slight chance
pops across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL by Thursday
evening, then finally totally ending any pops across the entire
forecast area by Friday evening.  Should see warmer temperatures by
Saturday due to gradually rising upper level heights as the upper
level trough shifts east of the region coupled with more sunshine on
Saturday with surface ridging over the area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The warm front remains across southeast MO and southern IL at
midday and is slowly lifting northward. There is now a temporary
lull in showers and thunderstorms across the metro St. Louis
region, while showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
central MO including KCOU and west central MO including KUIN. I
don't foresee any big changes for KCOU and KUIN as showers and
thunderstorms will continue to impact those terminals with
predominately IFR flight conditions through the remainder of the
afternoon. Pending unforeseen earlier development, the next round
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact the metro St.
Louis terminals around 21Z. I think the overall amount of thunder
will diminish through the evening, with predominately rain/showers
late evening and overnight. Several waves of thunderstorms will
then be possible again on Sunday. Flight conditions will continue
to vary from MVFR to IFR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Anticipating a lull in thunderstorms until around 21z, then
another round of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and high
winds will impact the terminal. Thunderstorms should last into the
early evening and then steady showers/rain will continue from the
later evening through the overnight hours. Several waves of thunderstorms
will then be possible again on Sunday. Flight conditions will
continue to vary from MVFR to IFR.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     72  48  57  48 /  90  20  20   5
Quincy          68  45  51  43 /  80  40  40   5
Columbia        67  43  56  45 /  70  30  30   5
Jefferson City  69  44  58  47 /  70  20  30   5
Salem           75  50  56  46 /  90  50  10   5
Farmington      71  46  59  47 /  90  20  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
     MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
439 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-010945-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
439 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms are possible today and this evening,
mainly across east central and southeast Missouri and west central
and southwest Illinois. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threat, although isolated tornadoes will be possible as
well. Heavy rain is also expected through this evening and a
flash flood watch continues for most of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today into this evening. Spotters
are encouraged to report any severe weather or significant rainfall
amounts and flooding, if observed, to the National Weather Service.

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
654 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LESTERVILLE             37.46N  90.83W
04/30/2017  M5.40 INCH       REYNOLDS           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24HR TOTAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700386

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
735 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 S PLEASANT HILL       39.37N  90.87W
04/30/2017  M5.00 INCH       CALHOUN            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700387

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
829 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WATERLOO                38.33N  90.16W
04/30/2017  M4.79 INCH       MONROE             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. 1.06 SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX1700389

BRITT