River Flood Warning 52, NWS St. Louis, MO

421 
WGUS83 KLSX 291418
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
918 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Maries River near Westphalia
  Moreau River near Jefferson City


.This Flood Warning is a result of between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall the 
past 24 hours and 4 to 6 inches forecast in the next 48 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC151-301418-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0052.170430T0000Z-170502T0630Z/
/WPHM7.2.ER.170430T0000Z.170430T1200Z.170501T0630Z.NO/
918 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maries River near Westphalia
* from this evening to late Monday night.
* At  8:00 AM Saturday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  to crest near 15.5 feet by tomorrow morning. The river is forecast 
  to fall below flood stage by early Monday morning.
* Impact:  At 14.3 feet...County Road 608 north of the bridge begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...County Road 512 just south of Westphalia 
  begins flooding near a small creek bridge near this height.
* Impact:  At 13.9 feet...County Road 615 just north of the U.S. 
  Highway 63 bridge begins flooding at this height.
* Impact:  At 12.1 feet...The north end of County Road 521 begins 
  flooding adjacent to the river near this height.
* Impact:  At 9.0 feet...County Road 610 begins flooding near the 
  Indian Creek bridge near this height.
* Impact:  At 8.2 feet...The Sestak Slab bridge along the south 
  portion of County Road 521 (near County Road 522) begins flooding 
  near this height.  This bridge flooded during the crest of 
  1/30/2013 of 9.76 feet.  It is 11.5 river miles upstream from the 
  gage.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/30  05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04

Maries River
  Westphalia      10.0    5.01      15.5    7.8    4.3    3.4    3.0


&&


LAT...LON 3827 9202 3827 9194 3846 9194 3850 9197
      3840 9205                       



$$

MOC051-301417-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0050.170430T0325Z-170502T2004Z/
/JCMM7.2.ER.170430T0325Z.170501T0000Z.170501T2004Z.NO/
918 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Moreau River near Jefferson City
* from this evening to Tuesday afternoon.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 4.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and to 
  crest near 28.0 feet by tomorrow evening. The river is forecast to 
  fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Near this height, Walnut Acres Road near 
  North Moreau Creek will likely need to be closed.  This road is 
  18.3 river miles upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Near this height, Buffalo Road will be 
  closed.  This road is about 8.7 river miles upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 19.0 feet...Near this height, Zion Road will be closed.
  This road is about 12 river miles upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 18.0 feet...Near this height, both Bainer Road and 
  Loesch Road will be closed.  These roads are about 15.5 to 16 river
  miles upstream of the gage.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/30  05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04

Moreau River
  Jefferson City  17.0    3.99      24.1   23.6    7.3    3.5    2.7


&&


LAT...LON 3853 9231 3848 9231 3849 9211 3854 9207
      3855 9214                       



$$

768 
WGUS83 KLSX 300131
FLSLSX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
831 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Maries River near Westphalia

.This Flood Warning is a result of 3 to 4 inches of precipitation the 
past 24 hours and 1 to 2 inches forecast in the next 48 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC151-010131-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170502T1100Z/
/WPHM7.2.ER.170429T1904Z.170430T1200Z.170501T1100Z.NO/
831 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maries River near Westphalia
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 17.5 feet by tomorrow morning, 
  then fall below flood stage Monday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/30  05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04

Maries River
  Westphalia      10.0   14.86      17.5    9.6    4.4    3.3    3.0

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9202 3827 9194 3846 9194 3850 9197
      3840 9205                       

$$

537 
WGUS43 KLSX 301155
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
655 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the 
following rivers in Missouri...

  Maries River near Westphalia

.This Flood Warning is a result of up to 4 inches of rainfall the 
past 24 hours and up to an inch forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC151-011155-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170502T1426Z/
/WPHM7.3.ER.170429T1904Z.170430T1200Z.170501T1426Z.NO/
655 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Maries River near Westphalia* At  6:00 AM Sunday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* The river is forecast to crest near 20.3 feet by this morning. The 
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage tomorrow late morning.
* Impact:  At 20.4 feet...County Road 611 just west of the bridge 
  begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...State Highway T will begin flooding 
  southwest of the bridge near this height.
* Impact:  At 14.3 feet...County Road 608 north of the bridge begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...County Road 512 just south of Westphalia 
  begins flooding near a small creek bridge near this height.
* Impact:  At 13.9 feet...County Road 615 just north of the U.S. 
  Highway 63 bridge begins flooding at this height.
* Impact:  At 12.1 feet...The north end of County Road 521 begins 
  flooding adjacent to the river near this height.
* Impact:  At 9.0 feet...County Road 610 begins flooding near the 
  Indian Creek bridge near this height.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Maries River
  Westphalia      10.0   20.11      11.1    4.7    3.4    3.0       


&&


LAT...LON 3827 9202 3827 9194 3846 9194 3850 9197
      3840 9205                       



$$

799 
WGUS83 KLSX 301920
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
220 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Maries River near Westphalia

.This Flood Warning is a result of over 3 inches of rainfall the 
past 24 hours and up to an inch forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC151-011920-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170502T2028Z/
/WPHM7.3.ER.170429T1904Z.170430T1847Z.170501T2028Z.NO/
220 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maries River near Westphalia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  2:00 PM Sunday the stage was 20.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact:  At 20.4 feet...County Road 611 just west of the bridge 
  begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...State Highway T will begin flooding 
  southwest of the bridge near this height.
* Impact:  At 14.3 feet...County Road 608 north of the bridge begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...County Road 512 just south of Westphalia 
  begins flooding near a small creek bridge near this height.
* Impact:  At 13.9 feet...County Road 615 just north of the U.S. 
  Highway 63 bridge begins flooding at this height.
* Impact:  At 12.1 feet...The north end of County Road 521 begins 
  flooding adjacent to the river near this height.
* Impact:  At 9.0 feet...County Road 610 begins flooding near the 
  Indian Creek bridge near this height.
* Impact:  At 8.2 feet...The Sestak Slab bridge along the south 
  portion of County Road 521 (near County Road 522) begins flooding 
  near this height.  This bridge flooded during the crest of 
  1/30/2013 of 9.76 feet.  It is 11.5 river miles upstream from the 
  gage.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Maries River
  Westphalia      10.0   20.91      14.2    5.1    3.3    2.9    2.8


&&


LAT...LON 3827 9202 3827 9194 3846 9194 3850 9197
      3840 9205                       



$$

350 
WGUS83 KLSX 010223
FLSLSX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
923 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Maries River near Westphalia

  Moreau River near Jefferson City

.This Flood Warning is a result of very heavy rainfall the past 
few days and less than a tenth of an inch forecast in the next 
24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC051-020223-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170503T0806Z/
/JCMM7.3.ER.170429T2232Z.170501T0600Z.170502T0806Z.NR/
923 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Moreau River near Jefferson City
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 32.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 32.8 feet by early Monday
  morning, then fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Impact:  At 29.3 feet...Water level reaches the low steel of the 
  Tanner Bridge.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Moreau River
  Jefferson City  17.0   32.53      31.2   13.3    5.4    3.4    3.0

&&

LAT...LON 3853 9231 3848 9231 3849 9211 3854 9207
      3855 9214                       

$$

MOC151-020223-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170502T1951Z/
/WPHM7.3.ER.170429T1904Z.170430T2100Z.170501T1951Z.NO/
923 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maries River near Westphalia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  9:01 PM Sunday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Monday early afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/01  05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05

Maries River
  Westphalia      10.0   19.02      13.9    5.0    3.3    2.9    2.7

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9202 3827 9194 3846 9194 3850 9197
      3840 9205                       

$$

637 
WGUS83 KLSX 011332
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
832 AM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Maries River near Westphalia


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC151-011402-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170502T1951Z/
/WPHM7.3.ER.170429T1904Z.170430T2100Z.170501T0858Z.NO/
832 AM CDT MON MAY 1 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Maries River near Westphalia.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  3:58 AM Monday.
* The river will continue falling to 4.5 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/02  05/03  05/04  05/05  05/06

Maries River
  Westphalia      10.0    6.63       4.5    3.2    2.8    2.7       


&&


LAT...LON 3827 9202 3827 9194 3846 9194 3850 9197
      3840 9205                       



$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Showers and thunderstorms that are ongoing over southwest and
south central IL are occurring in association with a region of
elevated CAPE, and lift via a south-southwesterly LLJ and
migratory impulse in the southwest flow aloft. Present indications
are this activity will continue to move east and exit the CWA
before 00Z in association with continued eastward motion of the
upper level disturbance. Thereafter there may be a rather tranquil
period until late this evening. The wavy warm front currently
extends from western KY through the bootheel curving southwest
through AR into eastern OK. This front is expected to lift slowly
northward and become better defined across the far southern CWA -
southeast MO and southern IL tonight. Late this evening, another
impulse currently located in KS will translate across the region
providing some large scale ascent. More importantly the broad and
stout southwesterly LLJ is expected to result in strong lift along
the broad frontal zone, with the ascent primarily focused along
the front and into the cool sector. This is expected to result in
widespread thunderstorm development from 03-06Z across southern MO
and southern IL. Attendant with these storms will be a threat of
large hail, as well as heavy rainfall/flash flooding giving there
west-east alignment and high rainfall rate and training potential.
The axis of storms and the northward and growing adjoining
stratiform rain region should then gradually spread northward
through the overnight hours with the strongest storms shifting to
the east into the OH Valley region.

A stormy and volatile period is expected on Saturday with potential
for both severe weather as well as heavy rain and flash flooding.
There remains uncertainty in the specifics that we probably won't be
able to nail down until as we get much closer. The overall scenario
has the mid/upper flow continuing to back and become more south-
southwesterly as the upper low/trof shift across the
southern/central Rockies into the Plains. The next result is the
warm front will lift northward through central/eastern MO and
southern IL during the day as a surface low tracks into eastern OK.
The result will be an expanding unstable warm sector and therefore
risk of surface-based storms with attendant hail and damaging wind
threats. Complicating the whole scenario is an ongoing MCS will move
from western MO and into central MO during the late morning and then
across the remainder of the CWA during the afternoon hours. Current
thinking is that while WAA generated showers and storms will be
possible at just about anytime, this anticipated MCS will re-
energize by afternoon and pose a greater severe weather threat as it
taps the instability of the expanding warm sector. A very moist air
mass with PWs greater than 200% of normal will promote high rainfall
rates and any locations seeing longevity of storms and training will
have a heightened flash flood threat.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Saturday night, upper low to continue lifting northeast out of
southern Plains into region, which will begin to lift warm front
back to the north inconjunction with deepening surface low. Strong
low level jet will pull in plenty of moisture, so continue to see
PWs in excess of 1.5 inches, with some models indicating close to
PWs around 2 inches. Will see several rounds of showers and storms
Saturday night through Sunday. Model differences on location of main
axis of highest qpf still a problem with NAM the furthest north.
Will keep superblend solution, which is a bit further north than
yesterday and a bit less than the WPC qpf. As for chances of severe
weather, strong to severe storms possible, especially over east
central/southeast MO and southwestern IL Saturday night.

By Sunday as surface low moves due north over western MO, warm front
to slide north of forecast area, while surface low drags cold front
through region during the afternoon and early evening hours. So dry
slot to move in behind cold front with precipitation tapering off
towards Midnight Sunday. Strong to severe chances look best over
southeast MO and far southern IL.

Storm total qpf still looks to be between 3 and 5 inches with the
highest amounts extending along the I-44 corridor in MO and I-55
corridor in IL. This could lead to a significant hydrologic event
with moderate to major flooding occurring on a number of river
basins. Flash flood watch to remain in effect through 06z Monday,
though have added a few more counties along the northern side of the
watch.

Will see wrap around showers on backside of system late Sunday night
through Monday. Beyond that, another brief break in the
precipitation before next system moves Tuesday night through
Thursday night. Extended models having differences in timing and
placement with this system, so went with a blend for now. Otherwise,
coolest temps will be on Monday with highs in the 50 to 60 degree
range, then moderate back into the 60s for the remainder of the
forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

IFR conditions are expected to prevail for the TAF sites for much
of the valid period, especially as a frontal boundary digs in to
the southeast and allows low CIGs to become more widespread and
lower. Rain will increase from the south later tonight and, once
it moves in, will be difficult to completely dislodge from the
area and as a result was very difficult to find a break for the
TAFs. Looks like the best opportunity for a break from the rain
will be for the STL metro sites from late morning until late
afternoon as the frontal boundary lifts northward and should also
allow for an improvement in conditions to MVFR or perhaps VFR.
Surface winds will be NE north of the front and will begin to
become oriented this way this evening and will veer southerly when
the front pushes north thru STL metro later on Saturday. Winds
will also become gusty later tonight and Saturday as the storm
system to the west winds up.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
     MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
407 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-291200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
407 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late this evening
into the overnight hours. The region with the greatest threat is
across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threat. Heavy rain is also
possible tonight and a flash flood watch begins this evening
across much of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday through Sunday
evening, mainly across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

A heavy rainfall event will persist through Sunday evening. A
flash flood watch continues in effect for most of the forecast
area. A total of 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is forecast with
locally higher amounts possible, especially along Interstate 44 in
Missouri and Interstate 55 in Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight. Spotters are encouraged
to report any severe weather or significant rainfall amounts and
flooding, if observed, to the National Weather Service.

Byrd