Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Los Angeles, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
752 PM PDT Fri Jun 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure aloft will dive southward into the Great Basin this
weekend bringing well below normal temperatures to the interior.
High pressure aloft will build into the region through mid-week,
supporting a prolonged warming trend. Night to morning low clouds
will become suppressed to coastal areas during this time.

&&

.UPDATE...

Its going to a pretty random cloud night across the area. The weak
frontal boundary that passed over weakened the inversion and
there has not been enough time for it to strengthen much. There
was an initial surge of daytime clouds but now the clouds are
collapsing as the solar heating ends. An eddy will spin up tonight
but not too sure how strong it will be. Hard to imagine it not
being strong enough to bring clouds to the LA coast but everything
else there is in doubt. Will keep the idea of clouds over the LA
coasts and lower vly as well as the VTA coast and coastal vlys.
North winds will keep the VTA interior vlys clear and probably
most of the San Fernando vly. The NW winds will likely keep the
SLO county coast clear as well.

Wind advisory across the SBA south coast (esp the western
portion)looks good as the strong Central Coast winds funnel
through the passes and canyons.

Will issue a forecast update soon to account for the clearer
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRI-MON)

Assuming we do get a more solid low cloud coverage tonight we'll
likely see a slow clearing Saturday and even slower, if any,
clearing Sunday. In fact Sunday there could be some drizzle or
even light rain up against the foothills. So a better chance than
not of a cool/cloudy weekend for coast/valleys, especially
Ventura/LA Counties with limited afternoon clearing. Northerly
flow will continue the next couple nights across SB/SLO counties,
generating some gusty advisory level Sundowner winds and limiting
the low cloud development there. Gusty west winds expected in the
Antelope Valley this weekend that may border on advisory level
each afternoon.

The trough axis will pass through early Monday and should lead to
much earlier clearing and warmer temps but also continued gusty
north winds in the SB area.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

The warming trend that will begin Monday will continue right on
through the week as heights slowly rise each day, peaking next
Saturday. Tuesday should be noticeably warmer with some valley
areas back into the lower 90s. Then a degree or two of warming
each day through Friday, likely getting close to triple digits in
the warmer valleys as 950mb temps reach the low to mid 30s
celcius. In addition, it looks like a long stretch of daily gusty
Sundowner winds in the SB area, probably strongest Thu/Fri
nights. The combination of those north winds and the very warm
low lvl temps we could see some late afternoon/evening spikes into
the 90s in srn SB county late next week. The marine lyr will be
shrinking in depth and areal coverage each day, likely confined to
LA/Ventura counties through mid week and possibly just srn LA
County by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

10/0020Z

At 23Z at KLAX, the marine layer 1200 feet deep. The top of the
inversion was 2200 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.

Low confidence in all coastal and vly TAFs. Cigs will likely
arrive at some places and then dissipate and then reform. Cig hgts
will likely fall overnight. There is a 40 percent KOXR and KCMA
will stay cloudy all Saturday afternoon.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of SCT
conds 00Z-07Z. There is a 20 percent chc of SCT conds 22Z-01Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs could arrive at 008 or 012 or
025. Cigs could arrive anytime between 08Z-12Z. There is a 20
percent of no cigs at all.

&&

.MARINE...

09/100 PM.

High confidence in increasing northwest winds through at least
Monday...and likely through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions likely by tonight over the Outer Waters (Central Coast
to San Nicolas Island)...likely going to Gale by Sunday and
possibly as early as Saturday night. There is a 60 percent chance
for SCA conditions over the Inner Waters (Santa Barbara Channel
and Santa Monica Basin) tonight for either winds are steep seas
(4-6 ft at 6-8 seconds). Similar conditions are expected on
Saturday, with stronger winds on Sunday and Monday...where Gale
Force winds are possible over the Santa Barbara Channel. Daily
lulls are expected each morning however mainly over the Inner
Waters where light SE winds will form. Choppy short period seas
however will be common as the winds just offshore persist.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
      Sunday night for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late
      Sunday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(MON-FRI)
Gusty Sundowner winds expected next week in southern SB County,
strongest Monday night and Thu/Fri nights.

&&

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles