Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Los Angeles, CA

604 
WWUS86 KLOX 201745
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
945 AM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE SANTA 
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...

.A strong low pressure trough will push into the Great Basin today
with a weak cold front passing through the fire district through
this evening. A moderate to strong Sundowner will develop across 
the wind prone areas of southern Santa Barbara County by early 
evening, including the Thomas Fire. While humidities start off 
rather high, they will drop to the 20 to 35 percent range when 
winds are strongest which could produce erratic fire behavior. The
flow will turn northeasterly on Thursday and continue into early 
Friday, which will focus the winds over Los Angeles and Ventura 
Counties. Humidities will quickly dry into the teens and local 
single digits on Thursday along with poor overnight recoveries 
Thursday night, then winds will decrease on Friday. 

CAZ239-252-210145-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0012.171221T0200Z-171221T1800Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-Santa Barbara County Mountains-
945 AM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST...

* Winds...Northwest to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50
  mph. Isolated gusts to 60 mph possible in the hills.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 20 to 35 percent.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ253-254-210145-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0013.171221T1400Z-171222T1700Z/
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
945 AM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor
  overnight recoveries of 25 to 50 percent. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244>246-288-547-210145-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0013.171221T1400Z-171222T1700Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
945 AM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
MOST VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES AND THE VENTURA
COAST...

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor 
  overnight recoveries of 25 to 50 percent. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ241-210145-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0013.171221T1400Z-171222T1700Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
945 AM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
CANYONS AND HILLS OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST...

* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the
  canyons and hills mainly from Malibu to west Hollywood.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor
  overnight recoveries of 25 to 40 percent.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

367 
WWUS86 KLOX 202223
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
223 PM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 
MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MUCH OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...

.A strong low pressure trough pushing across the Great Basin 
and a cold front over the fire district will bring gusty northwest
winds this evening, then transition to a Sundowner and strong
north winds down the I-5 corridor to the Santa Monica Mountains
overnight. This will bring significant wind gusts of 40-60 mph to
the Thomas Fire this evening into Thursday morning. While 
humidities start off above 50 percent in most areas, they will
drop to the 20-35 percent range later this evening and overnight.
The flow will turn northeasterly early Thursday morning and 
continue into early Friday, which will focus the winds over Los 
Angeles and Ventura Counties. Humidities will quickly dry into the
teens and local single digits on Thursday along with poor 
overnight recoveries Thursday night, then winds will decrease on 
Friday.

CAZ253-254-211800-
/O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0013.171221T1400Z-171222T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KLOX.FW.W.0012.171221T1400Z-171222T1800Z/
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
223 PM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Red Flag Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in
effect from 6 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday. The Fire Weather
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor
  overnight recoveries of 20 to 35 percent. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244>246-288-547-211800-
/O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0013.171221T1400Z-171222T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KLOX.FW.W.0012.171221T1400Z-171222T1800Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
223 PM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Red Flag Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in
effect from 6 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday. The Fire Weather
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor
  overnight recoveries of 20 to 35 percent. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ241-211800-
/O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0013.171221T1400Z-171222T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KLOX.FW.W.0012.171221T1400Z-171222T1800Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
223 PM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MALIBU TO WEST
HOLLYWOOD HILLS ALONG THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Red Flag Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in
effect from 6 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday. The Fire Weather
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph mainly from 
  Malibu to the west Hollywood hills.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor
  overnight recoveries of 20 to 35 percent. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ239-252-211800-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0012.171221T0200Z-171221T1800Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-Santa Barbara County Mountains-
223 PM PST Wed Dec 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST...

* Winds...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Isolated gusts
  to 60 mph possible in the foothills above Montecito. 

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 20 to 35 percent overnight.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

393 
WWUS86 KLOX 211558
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
758 AM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY 
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND 
VENTURA COUNTIES...

.A cold and dry Santa Ana will continue to drop humidities across
the windier corridors of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties today
with wind gusts to 50 mph in the mountains and 35-40 mph in the
valleys and coasts. Humidities are expected to drop into the teens
and locally single digits this afternoon and again on Friday.
Overnight recoveries will only be 20-35 percent for many areas. 

Winds continue to decrease across Santa Barbara County this
morning and humidities will start to rise as winds shift back
onshore by midday. The red flag warning will be canceled for this
area. 

CAZ239-252-211700-
/O.CAN.KLOX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171221T1800Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-Santa Barbara County Mountains-
758 AM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
COAST...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has cancelled
the Red Flag Warning.

Locally gusty northeast winds of 20-25 mph this morning will 
weaken and reverse to onshore by midday across the coast and
southern Santa Ynez Range. This will help increase humidities 
into the 40-60 percent range as well, therefore, the red flag 
warning is canceled. 

$$

CAZ253-254-220000-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171222T1800Z/
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
758 AM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor
  overnight recoveries of 20 to 35 percent.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244>246-288-547-220000-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171222T1800Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
758 AM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor
  overnight recoveries of 25 to 35 percent.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ241-220000-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171222T1800Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
758 AM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MALIBU TO WEST HOLLYWOOD
HILLS ALONG THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST...

* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph mainly from
  Malibu to the west Hollywood Hills.

* Relative Humidity...Lowering to 8 to 15 percent with poor
  overnight recoveries of 25 to 35 percent.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

497 
WWUS86 KLOX 212217
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
217 PM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES...

.A cold and dry Santa Ana will continue to drop humidities across
the windier corridors of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties with 
wind gusts to 50 mph in the mountains and 35-40 mph in the valleys
and coasts. Humidities will lower into the teens and single 
digits this afternoon and again on Friday. Overnight recoveries 
will be minimal in the 15 to 30 percent range for many areas.

Winds are expected to subside late Friday morning across Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties, but it will remain very dry through
the entire holiday weekend. 

CAZ253-254-221800-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171222T1800Z/
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
217 PM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...ranging from 8 to 15 percent with very poor
  overnight recoveries. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244>246-288-547-221800-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171222T1800Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
217 PM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...

* Winds...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...ranging from 8 to 15 percent with very poor
  overnight recoveries. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ241-221800-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171222T1800Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
217 PM PST Thu Dec 21 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MALIBU TO WEST HOLLYWOOD
HILLS ALONG THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST...

* Winds...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph mainly from
  Malibu to the west Hollywood Hills.

* Relative Humidity...ranging from 8 to 15 percent with very poor
  overnight recoveries. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. Use extreme caution with potential fire ignition 
  sources.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

841 
WWUS86 KLOX 221712
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
912 AM PST Fri Dec 22 2017


CAZ240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-221815-
/O.CAN.KLOX.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171222T1800Z/
Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys-
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
912 AM PST Fri Dec 22 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR ALL AREAS...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has cancelled
the Red Flag Warning.

Winds have decreased below 25 mph in most areas and are not
expected to increase through early next week. However, humidities
will remain very dry, dropping into the teens and single digits in
the afternoon with very poor overnight recoveries. 

$$

MW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
201 PM PST Tue Dec 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny skies today will give way to increasing clouds tonight
and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area along with
possible showers for northern areas. Gusty offshore winds with
clearing skies and below normal temperatures will affect the area
Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Fair and milder conditions can
be expected Saturday, followed by another gusty offshore wind event
Sunday into Christmas Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI)

A cold front pushing onshore across the Pac NW is turning
gradients onshore and resulting in a 3-6 degree cooling trend in
most areas today. Marine layer clouds are holding off the Central
Coast but should push inland and south overnight and reach all
coast and some coastal valleys by early Wednesday.

That front will slide south into northern CA later today and tonight
and into the Central Coast Wednesday. Models show it holding
together well enough to bring a decent shot of very light rain to
SLO county but decreasing chances going south into nrn SB County
and minimal chances south and east of there after crossing the
transverse range. The bigger impact aside from the oddity of
hydrometeors falling from the sky will be the expected increase in
northwest and north winds following the front Wednesday afternoon
and night, with the potential for 50 mph winds along the ridges
of the Santa Ynez Range Wednesday night. Current forecast
gradients during the evening there aren't impressive, only 2-3mb,
but stronger from the north later that night which would be a
bigger impact to the Thomas fire area east of San Marcos pass.
Also, winds aloft are 30-40 kt so with the subsidence there we
should see those stronger winds surfacing at least near the
ridges. Another day of cooling tomorrow with most lower elevation
areas in the low to mid 60s.

By Thursday and Friday we're back into a Santa Ana pattern with
the strongest northeast winds expected Thursday morning into early
afternoon. Wind advisories should suffice as gradients and upper
support aren't there for warning level winds. Temps will be
climbing with the coastal areas warmer than the valleys at least
for Thursday and less differential Friday as the air mass
moderates. But still mostly in the 60s. Overnight temperatures
however will be downright cold, especially in wind protected
areas. Portions of the Antelope Valley expected to drop into the
teens and as low as 10 degrees Thu/Fri mornings while some colder
mountain valleys drop into the single digits. Parts of the Central
Coast and the Ojai Valley will likely require freeze watches by
Friday morning with lows in the 20s as the winds drop off.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

Pretty quiet day Saturday with a strong ridge along the West
Coast and weak gradients. Temps should warm up most areas but
especially inland.

Models have been bouncing around with the upper level pattern for
Sun/Mon, sometimes showing a much more coast-hugging trajectory of
the next trough. Today however both the GFS and ECMWF solutions
are favoring a much farther inland path which provides us with
much less upper support but still a sizable offshore gradient.
With the ensemble mean solution also favoring this scenario it
seems probable that the resulting offshore gradient won't be as
strong as the -9mb gradient the GFS is currently showing. Either
way, without the upper support Santa Ana winds will likely be
limited to advisory levels. However this would be a much warmer
event with the ridge aloft so temps expected to push 80 degrees by
Christmas Day.

Some cooling expected by Tuesday as gradients trend onshore but
still well above normal and dry. Longer range projections
(throwing out the goofy EC solution at 240hr) are favoring a
December shutout of precip across much of the southern portion of
our forecast area with the high pressure ridge remaining in place
through the end of 2017.

&&

.AVIATION...19/1800Z.

At 1645Z, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based
inversion with the top of the inversion around 1800 feet with a
temperature of 13 degrees C.

Clear skies across the region this morning. Some low clouds were
just off the Central Coast. Otherwise, expect VFR conds through
this evening. Expect widespread LIFR to IFR conds in coastal
sections tonight, reaching the lower valleys by Wed morning.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 04Z
Wed. There is a 20-30% percent chance that LIFR to IFR conds
will push into the airport as early as 06Z.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the
period. There is a 20% chance of MVFR vsbys after 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...19/200 PM.

High confidence in winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels thru early Wed, with NW winds increasing rapidly Wed
afternoon across the outer waters and the northern inner waters.
SCA level winds are likely in these areas Wed afternoon thru late
Wed night, except into Thu morning across the southern two thirds
of the outer waters. There is a 40% chance of Gale Force winds
across the outer waters, so Gale Watches have been continued there
for Wed afternoon thru late Wed night. Later shfts can watch the
evolution of the models to make a final determination if gales are
necessary. Across the northern inner waters, there is a 20% of
gale force winds. Seas will likely also approach hazardous levels
during this time across the Outer Waters.

Across the SBA Channel and the southern inner waters, SCA level W
to NW winds are likely Wed evening, likely beginning in the afternoon
across the SBA Channel. Locally gusty NE winds are expected late
Wed night thru Thu morning across the eastern sections of the
southern inner waters and the SCA Channel. There is a 20-30%
chance of SCA level NE winds Thu morning.

Patchy dense fog with visibility one nautical mile or less is
possible across the coastal waters tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...19/100 PM.

The Fire Weather Watch for the Santa Barbara County Mountains and
South Coast has been UPGRADED to a Red Flag Warning. It is in
effect from 6 pm Wednesday to 10 am Thursday. The Fire Weather
Watch for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties from 6 am
Thursday to 9 am Friday. A watch means that a Red Flag Warning
will likely be issued as we get closer to the event.

By Wednesday afternoon and evening, confident that the flow will
shift to northerly and strengthen over the wind prone areas
including the Santa Ynez Range and the Thomas Fire, as well as the
I-5 Corridor. Peak wind gusts will likely exceed 40 mph, with
gusts to around 60 mph possible which would be similar to
Saturday. While humidities will be above 15 percent Wednesday
night, dry fuels will remain. A Fire Weather Watch will remain for
much of Santa Barbara County as a result, especially in
consideration of the Thomas Fire. Portions of Ventura and Los
Angeles County south of the interior mountains may also approach
critical Wednesday night.

The winds will become northeasterly Thursday and Friday and shift
focus to Los Angeles and Ventura Counties and out of Santa Barbara
County. Significant drying will occur during this time and Red Flag
conditions are likely, resulting in a Fire Weather Watch. High
uncertainty remains for the Christmas weekend, but strong offshore
flow and very dry conditions are possible around Christmas Eve.

People need to be extremely cautious with potential ignition
sources, such as cigarettes, lawn/brush clearing equipment,
campfires, and welding torches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 239-252. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday morning through
      Friday morning for zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late
      Wednesday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(FRI-TUE)
Critical fire weather conditions are possible with gusty
gusty Santa Ana winds Friday. Frosts and freezes will be possible
in sheltered areas Friday morning. Another round of widespread
strong and gusty offshore winds will be possible Sat night into
Mon morning, with critical fire weather conditions possible.

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
FIRE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles