High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Los Angeles, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
127 PM PST Wed Jan 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to be well below normal across southwestern
California for at least another day then will warm to above normal
by Sunday. Gusty offshore winds will develop on Friday and will
continue through Monday. The next chance of rain comes next Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

A trough will drop south through the Great Basin Thursday with a
reinforcing shot of cooler air, keeping temps in the area below
normal at least through Friday. It will also initiate a moderate
Santa Ana wind event late Thursday and Friday, mainly for
LA/Ventura counties. Upper support for the winds is by far the
strongest on Friday while gradients peak Saturday. In most cases
this scenario results in mostly advisory level winds peaking on
the first day, then generally weaker winds the second day, though
in certain areas, especially those with more easterly exposure,
winds can be a little stronger. We may see a couple isolated
mountain stations around the Santa Clarita Valley get a gust to
around 60mph Friday morning but at this point would favor an
advisory overall.

Another round of cold temps expected tonight. Many valley and
Central Coast locations should drop to near or slightly below
freezing. Thursday night winds will moderate temps somewhat but in
wind protected locations temps will be similar if not colder. Same
on Saturday morning.

As the trough exits to the east Saturday ridging will rapidly
develop behind it with much warmer temps.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

Warming trend to continue through Monday before the ridge starts
to weaken Tue. By Wednesday a cold front will push across the
eastern Pacific but weaken as it bumps into the departing ridge.
Timing still a bit uncertain but it looks like most areas should
see at least some precip from it by Wednesday night which is just
outside the current forecast window. Central Coast has a decent
shot of some rain as early as Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z.

At 1624Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF package as skies are expected
to remain VFR through the period.

KLAX...high confidence in 18Z TAF as conditions are expected to
remain VFR through the period. Any east winds Thursday morning
will remain below 7 knots.

KBUR...high confidence in 18Z TAF as conditions are expected to
remain VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the
period, although there is a 30% chance of Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds on Thursday and Friday. As for seas, seas will
subside through the day, dropping below SCA levels this afternoon.
Seas will remain below SCA levels tonight, but will likely
increase to SCA levels Thursday.

For the Inner Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of Point Sal, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels through Thursday. For Thursday night and
Friday, winds and seas may increase to SCA levels, but will drop
below SCA levels Saturday/Sunday. For the waters south of Point
Conception, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Thursday night. On Friday, moderate confidence in
northeast winds reaching SCA speeds from Ventura south to Santa
Monica and possibly over the San Pedro Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Frost Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 34-35-45-46-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zone 40. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Freeze Warning in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Thursday for
      zone 44. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SAT-WED)
Gusty Santa Ana winds expected Saturday.

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Kj

weather.gov/losangeles