Gale Warning 7, NWS Chicago, IL

517 
WHUS73 KLOT 071531
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
931 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

LMZ080-671-673-675-777-779-872-874-876-878-072345-
/O.CON.KLOT.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170207T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0007.170208T0200Z-170208T0900Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
931 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST GALES TO 35 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 11 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 14 FT.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-868-870-072345-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0007.170208T0200Z-170208T0900Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN HOLLAND TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO MID-
LINE OF LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
931 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST GALES TO 35 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 10 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 13 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ740>743-072345-
/O.CON.KLOT.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170207T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0012.170207T2000Z-170208T1500Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
931 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
  THIS EVENING. 

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 5 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 7 FT.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ744-745-072345-
/O.CON.KLOT.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170207T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0012.170207T1700Z-170208T2100Z/
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
931 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST NORTHWEST TO 30 KT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 
  KT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. 

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 8 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 10 FT.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

910 
WHUS73 KLOT 072111
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
311 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

LMZ080-671-673-675-777-779-872-874-876-878-080515-
/O.EXP.KLOT.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170207T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0007.170208T0200Z-170208T0900Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
311 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST GALES TO 35 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 11 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 14 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ740>743-080515-
/O.EXP.KLOT.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170207T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170208T1500Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
311 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
  THIS EVENING.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 5 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 7 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ744-745-080515-
/O.EXP.KLOT.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170207T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KLOT.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170209T1500Z/
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
311 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...WEST NORTHWEST TO 30 KT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35  
  KT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 8 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 10 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-868-870-080515-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0007.170208T0200Z-170208T0900Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN HOLLAND TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO MID-
LINE OF LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
311 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 10 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 13 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

744 
WHUS73 KLOT 080259
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
859 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017


LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-080900-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170208T0900Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN HOLLAND TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO MID-
LINE OF LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
859 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST GALES TO 35 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 10 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 13 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ740>743-081100-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170208T1500Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
859 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 5 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 7 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ744-745-081100-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-170209T1500Z/
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
859 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...TO 8 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 10 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MTF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
349 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...
333 AM CST

Through tonight...

First concerns in the short term include fog, precip trends, and
temps. Sfc low along the MO/IA border will move east across
northern IL this morning. Fairly strong warm front will continue
to advance north ahead of the low with a surge of warm and
unseasonably humid air advancing north into the CWA. Sfc low looks
to track ENE from the Quad Cities to the northern suburbs, with
areas south of the track of the low likely to make it into the
warm sector with temps and dewpoints surging into the 50s. To the
north of the warm front, easterly winds will keep temps chilly
with at least the potential for dense for through the morning.
Will take a last minute look at trends for any possible
adjustments to going fog advisory prior to forecast issuance.

Strong WAA has supported scattered showers and thunderstorms early
this morning. The threat of thunder should gradually wane toward
and especially after sunrise as LLJ shifts east and warm front
lift north. Will probably continue to see showers into the morning
hours, ending from the west by mid-late morning as upper trough
passes and forcing weakens. As the surface low moves east of the
area by early afternoon winds will shift to west and drier air
will filter in with any lingering fog rapidly dissipating and
shower threat quickly abating. Temperatures will also begin to
fall this afternoon. Large bank of stratus upstream suggests
little hope of any clearing today or tonight. Have nudged low
temps tonight up a degree or two tonight, but worried this may
still be a bit too cold with cloudiness hanging around.

Izzi

&&

.LONG TERM...
333 AM CST

Wednesday through Monday...

Attention Wednesday will quickly turn to snow potential over the
area. Guidance has been in good agreement in showing a low
amplitude shortwave/shear vort zipping across the region, but
there has been run to run variability in the models on the track
and intensity of this feature. Pretty strong model agreement on
this feature with the 00z model suite, with the general idea of
some back of the low/mid level flow resulting in a band of
strengthening frontogenesis, particularly in the 850-700mb layer.
The associated f-gen circulation looks to be enough to produce a
east-west swath of accumulating snow across the state. There is
some model variability on where the swath of snow will set up, but
general consensus looks to be south of I-80.

Forecast x-sections and soundings show some fairly impressive
upper level lapse rates and decent deep layers of negative
saturated EPV, indicative of potential instability. While the
depth of the f-gen circulation isn't great, am concerned that the
stronger ascent could tap into the instability and there be a band
of potentially heavier snow than what most model suggest. In
collaboration with neighboring offices have bumped up pops to
likely southern CWA and also increased snow accums in grids to
just over an inch. Will need to at least monitor as there does
appear to be some potential for some banded heavier snowfall.

Brief shot of cold air in the wake of this wave, though it looks
like models are clearing out skies too quickly again. Have raised
lows a bit above guidance for Wednesday night, but these could
still be too cold assuming stratus hangs on as I suspect it might.
Thursday and Thurs night look to be cold, before upper ridge
rapidly builds in and warm front blast through sending temps very
quickly rebounding Friday.

Wave passing to our north Friday night should allow front to sag
back south and possibly "back door" in off Lake Michigan early
Saturday. Only made a small downward adjustment to model blended
guidance highs for Saturday, but could be much cooler, especially
near the lake if this front does indeed settle south.

Front will stall out and southern stream s/w is then forecast to
drive a sfc low up the front into the area with renewed shower and
perhaps thunderstorm chances over the weekend late Saturday and
Saturday night. Another weaker and shorter-lived shot of cold air
arrives Sunday behind the system but temps should remain
near/slightly above average behind that system.

Izzi

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Impactful weather to continue for the area into Tuesday. The main
forecast challenges continue to be:

1.) Fog tonight, and timing of any improvements.
2.) Rain and Thunderstorms developing over the area overnight.
3.) gusty westerly winds Tuesday afternoon/evening.

CIGs and VSBY's are in the LIFR to VLIFR category across much of
the area. These conditions are likely to continue at times through
early Tuesday morning. However, there may be some brief periods of
slightly improvement overnight as rain begins to develop over the
area. In addition to the rain, thunderstorms will also be a decent
possibility over the area later tonight into early Tuesday
morning as a potent mid-level disturbance moves over the area.
Shower and storm chances may continue a bit past the 12 to 13z
hour on Tuesday morning, but should be ending shortly thereafter.
CIGS and VSBYs could remain quiet low across the area early in the
morning as the surface low moves overhead. As a result, real
improvement may not occur until either late Tuesday morning or
early Tuesday afternoon.

Finally, following the eastward passage of the surface low
Tuesday afternoon, expect the winds to pick up out of the west,
and become gusty up to around 30 KT by early Tuesday evening.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
349 AM CST

Gradually deepening low pressure over the Mid MS Valley early this
morning will move over the southern portion of the lake around mid
day. East winds up to 30 kt are likely through mid day on the
northern portion of the lake, with lighter east southeast winds
on the southern and central portions of the lake. The lighter
winds and mild moist air mass will favor dense fog over the south
and central through mid day, so may need to cancel Dense Fog
Advisory early. There will be a period of variable wind direction
as the low moves over the lake, with east-northeast over the
central portion of the lake and south-southwest in the far south.

Once the low crosses the lake, winds will shift to northeast and
then north over the north and westerly over the south by the late
afternoon. With the push of colder air behind the low as the
deepening low tracks east of Lake Huron this evening, still looks
like a period of gales. With uncertainty on the computer
magnitudes regarding the top end magnitude of speeds/gusts, kept
mention at 35 kt for now. Issued a Gale Warning for the open
waters in effect from 8pm CST Tuesday through 3am CST Wednesday.

There are a few more periods of interest in the upcoming forecast.
First on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, Arctic high
pressure will spread southeast from the Plains. A stronger push
of cold air and a weak trough hanging back across the eastern
Lakes could result in a short period where northwest winds
approach gale force. Then on Friday, the high pressure will slide
to the Atlantic Coast and fast moving low pressure will approach
Lake Superior, which will likely yield a period of south-
southwest gales.

Castro

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023 UNTIL NOON Tuesday.

IN...Dense Fog Advisory...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL NOON Tuesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...2 PM
     Tuesday TO 9 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ744-LMZ745...11 AM Tuesday TO 3 PM
     Wednesday.

     Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM Tuesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ777-LMZ779...8 PM Tuesday TO 3 AM Wednesday.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
232 PM CST MON FEB 6 2017

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
072045-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
232 PM CST MON FEB 6 2017 /332 PM EST MON FEB 6 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK...WITH AN ASSOCIATED:
      LIMITED HAIL RISK...UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
      LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK...UP TO 60 MPH.
  SIGNIFICANT FOG RISK.

DISCUSSION:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS.
THE MOST FAVORED AREA WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...
AND ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD
BY THE LATE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING...
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
  SIGNIFICANT FOG RISK.
WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE COLD RISK.
  ELEVATED SNOW RISK SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THURSDAY...
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE COLD RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FOR REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS OR MORE LIKELY
FOR HAIL.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

LMZ740>745-072045-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
232 PM CST MON FEB 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...
POSSIBLY DENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-072045-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
232 PM CST MON FEB 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

KMD

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