Alert archive / Illinois / Flash Flood Warnings in 2017

Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Chicago, IL

July 12, 2017Lake County, McHenry County, Illinois

NWS Chicago, IL issued this flash flood warning at Jul 12, 2017, 1:29 AM CDT for Lake County, McHenry County, Illinois. It was in force for 10 hr. 16 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 12, 2017, 1:29 AM CDT (06:29 UTC)
Expired
Jul 12, 2017, 11:00 AM CDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Chicago, IL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Emergency
Flash flood emergency
Flood severity
None

Counties Lake County, IL, McHenry County, IL

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 12, 2:00 AM CDTFLASH FLOODLibertyville, ILREPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WITH NUMERIOUS ROADS IMPASSABLE.
Jul 12, 3:34 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 4.21 Nnw Lindenhurst, IL
Jul 12, 4:00 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 5.42 W Gurnee, IL
Jul 12, 5:06 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 5.17Libertyville, IL
Jul 12, 5:15 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 5.381 W Lake Bluff, IL
Jul 12, 5:26 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 3.42Gurnee, IL
Jul 12, 5:30 AM CDTFLASH FLOOD2 Sw North Chicago, ILHIGH FLOOD WATERS AT US-41 AND IL-137
Jul 12, 5:45 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 5.311 Ssw Lake Villa, IL
Jul 12, 5:57 AM CDTFLASH FLOODGurnee, ILIL-132 CLOSED BETWEEN OPLAINE RD AND FIRST ST DUE TO FLOODING
Jul 12, 6:00 AM CDTFLASH FLOODLibertyville, ILNORTHBOUND 45 BLOCKED AT IL-137 DUE TO HIGH STANDING WATER. BUTTERFIELD/VIRGINIA BLOCKED PETERSON RD BLOCKED BY INDEPENDENCE RT 21 BLOCKED NORTH OF IL-60
Jul 12, 6:00 AM CDTFLASH FLOODMundelein, ILWATER AT LEAST 8-10 INCHES DEEP AT LINCOLN AND DIVISION. NUMEROUS HOUSES FLOODED AND PEOPLE RESCUED BY RAFTS.
Jul 12, 6:33 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 2.422 Se Lakemoor, IL
Jul 12, 6:38 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 4.463 Se Fox Lake, IL
Jul 12, 6:48 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 6.75Mundelein, IL
Jul 12, 6:57 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 7.13Round Lake Park, IL
Jul 12, 8:25 AM CDTHEAVY RAIN 1.022 W Gurnee, ILRAIN FELL IN THE PAST 1 HOUR.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 31 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2017-07-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1096 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2017-07-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 268 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1096 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-33 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
755 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
268 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
315 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.5
Supercell composite
7.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

941 
WGUS53 KLOT 120629
FFWLOT
ILC097-111-121000-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FF.W.0007.170712T0629Z-170712T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
129 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Lake County in northeastern Illinois...
  Northeastern McHenry County in northeastern Illinois...

* Until 500 AM CDT

* At 127 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Radar estimates indicate that 
  between two and three inches of rain has fallen. Flash flooding is 
  expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Waukegan, North Chicago, Gurnee, Mundelein, McHenry, Vernon Hills,
  Zion, Grayslake, Libertyville, Lake Forest, Round Lake, Antioch,
  Beach Park, Wauconda, Fox Lake, Lake Villa, Island Lake, Long
  Grove, Park City and Wonder Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8780 4238 8781 4236 8782 4237 8782
      4233 8783 4231 8782 4230 8783 4225 8782
      4224 8828 4249 8853

$$

RATZER
5 follow-up statements
863 
WGUS73 KLOT 120724
FFSLOT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
224 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC097-111-121000-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lake IL-McHenry IL-
224 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES...

At 220 AM CDT, Doppler radar continued to indicate thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Radar rainfall 
estimates indicate that up to 4 inches of rain has fallen across 
portions of Lake County. Additional rainfall of one and a half to 
two inches is possible across the warned area early this morning.

Some locations that will experience flooding include... Waukegan, 
North Chicago, Gurnee, Mundelein, McHenry, Vernon Hills, Zion, 
Grayslake, Libertyville, Lake Forest, Round Lake, Antioch, Beach 
Park, Wauconda, Fox Lake, Lake Villa, Island Lake, Long Grove, Park 
City and Wonder Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8780 4238 8781 4236 8782 4237 8782
      4233 8783 4231 8782 4230 8783 4225 8782
      4224 8828 4249 8853

$$

RATZER
015 
WGUS53 KLOT 120917
FFWLOT
ILC097-111-121600-
/O.EXT.KLOT.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
417 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

The National Weather Service in Chicago has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Lake County in northeastern Illinois...
  Northeastern McHenry County in northeastern Illinois...

* Until 1100 AM CDT Wednesday

* At 413 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated that the thunderstorms 
  producing very heavy rain across the warned area was begging to 
  abate. However, radar rainfall estimates indicate that 5 to 6 
  inches of rain has fallen across portions of Lake County. 
  
  Significant flooding has been reported across much of the county 
with several roads impassible. Runoff from this very heavy rainfall 
will continue to result in flooding across the area this morning. 


* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Waukegan, North Chicago, Gurnee, Mundelein, McHenry, Vernon Hills,
  Zion, Grayslake, Libertyville, Lake Forest, Round Lake, Antioch,
  Beach Park, Wauconda, Fox Lake, Lake Villa, Island Lake, Long
  Grove, Park City and Wonder Lake.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8780 4238 8781 4236 8782 4237 8782
      4233 8783 4231 8782 4230 8783 4225 8782
      4224 8828 4249 8853

$$

BIRK
620 
WGUS73 KLOT 121221
FFSLOT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
721 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC097-111-121600-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lake IL-McHenry IL-
721 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES...

At 715 AM CDT, thunderstorms producing heavy rain were moving across 
the warned area and will likely cause additional flash flooding and 
very dangerous travel. Five to seven inches of rain have fallen and 
additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding will continue this morning.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Waukegan, North Chicago, Gurnee, Mundelein, McHenry, Vernon Hills,
Zion, Grayslake, Libertyville, Lake Forest, Round Lake, Antioch,
Beach Park, Wauconda, Fox Lake, Lake Villa, Island Lake, Long Grove,
Park City and Wonder Lake.

Including the following interstates...
 I-94 between mile markers 1 and 18.
 I-294 between mile markers 1 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.


&&

LAT...LON 4249 8780 4238 8781 4236 8782 4237 8782
      4233 8783 4231 8782 4230 8783 4225 8782
      4224 8828 4249 8853

$$

RODRIGUEZ
589 
WGUS73 KLOT 121248
FFSLOT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
748 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC097-111-121600-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lake IL-McHenry IL-
748 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Lake and northeastern McHenry 
counties in Illinois...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES...

At 742 AM CDT, thunderstorms producing very heavy rain were moving 
across the warned area and will likely cause additional flash 
flooding and very dangerous travel. Five to eight inches of rain has 
fallen and additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches are 
likely in the warned area.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Lake county and northeastern 
McHenry county in Illinois. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Waukegan, North Chicago, Gurnee, Mundelein, McHenry, Vernon Hills,
Zion, Grayslake, Libertyville, Lake Forest, Round Lake, Antioch,
Beach Park, Wauconda, Fox Lake, Lake Villa, Island Lake, Long Grove,
Park City and Wonder Lake.

Including the following interstates...
 I-94 between mile markers 1 and 18.
 I-294 between mile markers 1 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8780 4238 8781 4236 8782 4237 8782
      4233 8783 4231 8782 4230 8783 4225 8782
      4224 8828 4249 8853

$$

RODRIGUEZ
650 
WGUS73 KLOT 121401
FFSLOT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
901 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC097-111-121600-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lake IL-McHenry IL-
901 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Lake and northeastern McHenry 
counties in Illinois...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES...

At 857 AM CDT, additional thunderstorms producing very heavy rain 
were moving across the warned area and will likely cause additional 
flash flooding and very dangerous travel. Five to eight inches of 
rain has fallen and additional rainfall amounts of around one inch 
are likely in the warned area.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Lake county and northeastern 
McHenry county in Illinois. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Waukegan, North Chicago, Gurnee, Mundelein, McHenry, Vernon Hills,
Zion, Grayslake, Libertyville, Lake Forest, Round Lake, Antioch,
Beach Park, Wauconda, Fox Lake, Lake Villa, Island Lake, Long Grove,
Park City and Wonder Lake.

Including the following interstates...
 I-94 between mile markers 1 and 18.
 I-294 between mile markers 1 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8780 4238 8781 4236 8782 4237 8782
      4233 8783 4231 8782 4230 8783 4225 8782
      4224 8828 4249 8853

$$

RODRIGUEZ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 12, 1:03 AM CDT, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 1:03 AM CDT, 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
103 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.UPDATE...
858 PM CDT

Evening Update...

Some adjustments to going forecast this evening primarily to
tighten up gradient in pops with focus mainly across far north and
northeast IL, and also bumped overnight mins, Wednesday maxes and
dew point temps a bit.

Surface analysis depicts warm front/old outflow boundary from
central Iowa into central IL this evening. Wind fields are fairly
light as would be expected this time of year however, with an
overall lack of strong convergence along this boundary leading
only to some isolated convection west of the Quad Cities late this
afternoon. It appears the better focus for convection overnight
will focus along the elevated baroclinic zone further north, where
new convection has developed over the past 1-2 hours over
northeastern IA. Convection allowing models (CAMs) are not doing
real well with this activity overall, though the 23-00Z RAP runs
seem to best capture the location of the northeastern IA storms,
and have generally based overnight convective trends on its
depiction, which develops storms northeast into southern WI and
far northern IL, and eventually east-southeast across the lake.
This would mainly affect northern tier of counties and the
northern Chicago suburbs into the early morning hours, so have
generally tightened up the pop gradient depicted in our hourly
gridded forecast to go drier south/central portions of the cwa,
with a tighter gradient to higher pops along the IL/WI border
area. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-45 kt effective bulk
shear would support well-organized updrafts which could present a
hail threat from the strongest cores, though the greater concern
will likely be the potential for locally heavy rainfall given the
west/northwest to east/southeast orientation line of storms and
potential for training within near 2" pwat atmosphere. Should be
some northeastward drift of the elevated warm front overnight so
threat may be more of a southern WI issue.

Surface obs since this afternoon indicate pool of high dew point
air across the region, generally in the low-mid 70's, though with
upper 70's just upstream along the surface warm front. With moist
low levels, south winds, and mid-high clouds from convection to
our west/northwest, expect overnight temps will be slow to cool
and have raised a category in most areas to mid-70's. Wednesday
appears to have the potential to be fairly hot and humid, with
model 925 mb temps +26/27C. This would likely support highs in the
mid-90's in some spots, though morning convective and outflow
issues decrease confidence a bit. Did warm Wednesday max temps and
dew points a little more solidly into the 93-ish range, which also
yields some heat index readings tagging 105. Would prefer to defer
to mid-shift for any potential heat advisory headline however,
given uncertain somewhat MCS trends at this time.

Ratzer

&&

.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT

Through Wednesday...

Main forecast concerns/challenges are with shower and
thunderstorm chances this afternoon through this evening, and
possible lingering thunderstorms Wednesday morning with hot/humid
conditions still expected.

In the near term, upstream shortwave energy continuing to
progress overhead and can be noted with additional thicker cloud
cover and weak returns beginning to show up on latest radar
imagery. At this time, thunder is not being observed and think
this will likely continue over the next 1-2 hours as large scale
ascent is weaker along with weaker surface focus. However, forcing
will increase slightly and latest RAP analysis is depicting
weakening CIN within this instability axis across far northern
Illinois. This could support isolated thunder in this area later
this afternoon but with forcing to remain weak and lapse rates
weak, any development should remain weak as well. Whatever
develops will exit by late afternoon/early evening, with a dry
period then likely.

Turn attention toward additional thunderstorm chances by mid to
late evening mainly across northern Illinois, with the highest
chances along/north of I-88. Guidance is struggling with
convective trends later this evening into the overnight hours.
Have continued the trend from the previous forecast though, with
scattered thunderstorm development possible along lifting surface
boundary later this evening into tonight. Increasing LLJ will help
support development along this boundary by mid/late evening,
primary along and north of I-88. Although a general easterly
movement will be in place, additional development through the
night will shift further to the north. So at this time, don't
anticipate thunderstorm development all night. Will need to
continue monitoring overall trends this afternoon into the
evening, as a couple of other scenarios could occur. One scenario
is that the additional development late this evening could develop
just to the north, and then stay to the north through the night.
Another scenario would be for thunderstorms to develop along this
boundary later this evening, and then possibly train over portions
of northern Illinois. Once again, more probable solution would be
for scattered thunderstorms to develop over northern this
evening, and then shift north with time. Given the elevated
instability in place, there would be a severe wind and hail threat
with any storm. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also
continue to be concerns.

Have likely pops over far northern Illinois this evening, then
lower then to chance pops through the overnight hours. However, do
keep chance pops on Wednesday morning as its possible that
remnant MCS could clip the area. With possible cloud cover and
precip in the morning, high temps could be highly variable. At
this time, have maintained current forecast of highs around 90 as
it wouldn't take much for conditions to quickly heat up. High
dewpoint axis looks to still be in place and support heat indices
of 100-105.

Rodriguez

&&

.LONG TERM...
209 PM CDT

Wednesday night through Tuesday...

Initial focus is on stormy conditions to begin the period. The
shortwave trough axis across the upper Midwest Wednesday will
shift east toward Lake Superior in the evening, with a belt of
stronger mid level flow and low amplitude shortwaves on the
southern fringe of this stronger wind field. Earlier development
across IA/MN will be driven by convergence on a cold front ahead
of these waves. Steering flow would suggest that this activity
would advect east across northern Illinois in the evening and
overnight hours, possibly in the form of an MCS or complex of
thunderstorms. The main threat period appears to be overnight. The
MUCAPE and increasing shear do support the threat maintaining
itself across the area during this time, with damaging winds and
possibly hail the main severe threats, but depending on previous
days rain, a flooding threat would be a concern given the 2"+
PWATs and very muggy airmass in place. A portion of the cold
front will help to scour out some of the humidity and instability
on Thursday. Where the front sets up on Thursday, additional
storms may again fire along in in the afternoon, but at this point
the focus area would be our southern area or points farther
south.

The occasionally wet pattern and the westerly weak shortwave
train will finally end as upper level low pressure across southern
Canada will shift east across the northern Great Lakes Thursday
night. As this occurs, high pressure at the surface will build
south across the upper midwest. This will help to shunt existing
frontal boundaries south of the area. The last wave is Thursday
night, and therefore there may be some lingering precip well south
before midnight. High pressure over MN/IA early Friday will move
east over the Mississippi Valley.

The upper level pattern will amplify this weekend as the big heat
dome across the west will build while troughing heads to the
eastern United States. A shortwave trough emanating from the
Pacific will dive south in this pattern Saturday night. As this
occurs, surface high pressure will sink south and allow a cold
front to also move south across the lake late Saturday into early
Sunday. Many guidance sources are dry, but the GFS/GFS ensembles
do paint some showers and storms overnight into early Sunday,
before reigniting on the front south of the area Sunday afternoon.

It appears beyond that the upper ridge in the west will finally
make its way in our direction, making for dry conditions, and
depending on the degree the ridge builds may allow to really heat
things up again the temperature department.

KMD

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across nrn IL and
spread into nrn Indiana over the next few hours. Expect that much
of the thunder over nern IL will move away from the Chicago area
terminals by arnd 08Z and linger arnd the GYY area through arnd
10Z.  There is some concern over additional thunderstorms moving
into far nwrn IL/swrn WI moving into ncntrl IL, and possibly
impacting the RFD terminal area. While the high res model guidance
has a poor handle on the trends of this activity, will keep a
mention of vcts arnd RFD and monitor for any possible updates.

Tomorrow has some potential for renewed thunderstorm development
later in the day. The general trend should be for gusty swly winds
to develop by late morning, gusting up to 20-25 kt. Latest
guidance suggests that the greatest convective potential will be
tomorrow evening and overnight as a weak cold front sagging sewd,
reaching the RFD area by early evening and slowly progressing sewd
through the area. Timing and coverage remain a concern, but the
environment will be warm/moist/unstable and adding the sfc focus
of the cold front warrants at least a prob30 for TS for the
evening hours. The longer range guidance suggests that the push
behind the front will be relatively slow and there is the
potential that some thunder could linger over the region
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
209 PM CDT

There are no major periods of concern on Lake Michigan,
but winds will be varying a bit over the next few days. Gusty
northerly winds may build waves a little on the south half Sunday
into early Monday.

A stationary front on the southern tip of the lake
will shift north as a warm front tonight over a portion of Lake
Michigan before meandering back south later Thursday into Friday
as low pressure will spread from Iowa late today to Lake Huron by
early Friday. High pressure will build behind this low bringing a
brief period of northerly winds on Friday. The high will dip south
of the lake Saturday as another weak low will move east to
northern Lake Michigan Saturday, setting up a period of increased
southerly winds. This low will quickly move to the eastern Great
lakes by Sunday, as another high pressure area will shift to the
upper Great Lakes. Northerly winds return Sunday and Monday ahead
of the high that will sink south and spread over the lake late
Monday.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 3:37 PM CDT, 9 hours 52 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
337 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
122045-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake Illinois-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-
DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-
Iroquois-Ford-Lake Indiana-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
337 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 /437 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
      Elevated Hail Risk...up to quarter size.
      Elevated Thunderstorm Wind Damage Risk...up to 60 MPH.
  Elevated Flooding Risk.

DISCUSSION:

Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a warm front over northwestern
Illinois late this evening, before shifting east-northeastward
across portions of north central and far northeastern Illinois later
overnight. Along with a hail and wind threat, these storms
will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall. The Interstate 88
corridor northward is favored at this time. It is possible the greater
threat may stay north of the Wisconsin border until very late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
  Elevated Flooding Risk.
  Elevated Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
  Elevated Excessive Heat Risk.
Thursday...
  Limited Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
  Limited Excessive Heat Risk.
Friday through Sunday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION:

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are likely through
Thursday. Very heavy rainfall will be possible with these
thunderstorms. There is also a risk of severe thunderstorms,
particularly late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected on
Wednesday.

In addition...flooding is expected along portions of the Des
Plaines River in Lake County, Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Moving to the east at around 30 mph.

&&

LMZ740>745-122045-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor-Calumet Harbor to Gary-
Gary to Burns Harbor-Burns Harbor to Michigan City-
337 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk.
Thursday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Saturday night into early Sunday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-122045-
Lake Michigan from Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5 NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and north of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5 NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5 NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5 NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5 NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5 NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5 NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5 NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5 NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5 NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5 NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor IL to Michigan City IN 5 NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5 NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5 NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5 NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5 NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5 NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from St. Joseph to South Haven MI 5 NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
337 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible through Thursday, with a smaller chance
on Saturday night.

&&

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 11, 11:24 PM CDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     TSTM WND GST     PINGREE GROVE           42.07N 88.41W
07/11/2017  M78 MPH          KANE               IL   MESONET

            MEASURED ON HOME WEATHER STATION

&&

IZZI
Local storm report, Jul 11, 11:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1131 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S CARPENTERSVILLE     42.06N 88.26W
07/11/2017  M2.01 INCH       KANE               IL   COCORAHS

            FELL IN AN HOUR AND 40 MINUTES ENDING AT 1125 PM.

&&

IZZI
Special weather statement, Jul 11, 11:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

ILZ012>014-120500-
Kane IL-Cook IL-DuPage IL-
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KANE...NORTHWESTERN
DUPAGE AND NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1137 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elgin, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elgin, Schaumburg, Palatine, Hoffman Estates, Carol Stream, St.
Charles, West Chicago, Roselle, East Dundee, Bartlett, Streamwood,
Hanover Park, Inverness, Wayne, Bloomingdale, South Elgin and South
Barrington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4196 8836 4207 8833 4209 8807 4190 8813
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 274DEG 20KT 4200 8826

RATZER
Local storm report, Jul 11, 11:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/11/2017                   KANE               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMERIOUS ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. BASEMENTS ACROSS
            THE AREA ALSO FLOODED.

&&

KBIRK
Local storm report, Jul 12, 12:20 AM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1220 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PINGREE GROVE           42.07N 88.41W
07/11/2017                   KANE               IL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF MULTIPLE CARS STUCK IN WATER NEAR ROUTE
            47 AND ROUTE 72 NEAR PINGREE GROVE. MANY ROADS WEST OF
            ELGIN NOT PASSIBLE. VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

RATZER
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 12:57 AM CDT, 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
1257 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILZ005-006-120630-
Lake IL-McHenry IL-
1257 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAKE AND
NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ringwood, or over Wonder Lake, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McHenry, Round Lake, Wauconda, Fox Lake, Lake Villa, Island Lake,
Wonder Lake, Pistakee Highlands, Long Lake, Johnsburg, Lakemoor,
Spring Grove, Volo, Prairie Grove, Richmond, Bull Valley, McCullom
Lake, Ringwood, Holiday Hills and Greenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4225 8810 4232 8840 4250 8839 4249 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 279DEG 27KT 4240 8833

RATZER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Chicago, IL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 9:26 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLOTKane19 min
Jul 11, 10:27 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLOTKane18 min
Jul 11, 10:32 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT88 min
Jul 11, 10:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTKane33 min
Jul 11, 10:44 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTCook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry16 hr
Jul 11, 11:37 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLOTKane23 min
Jul 12, 12:57 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLOTMcHenry33 min
Jul 12, 1:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLake, McHenry40 min
Jul 12, 1:21 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT84 min
Jul 12, 1:51 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook, Lake28 min
Jul 12, 1:53 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT67 min
Jul 12, 3:14 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLOTLake46 min
Jul 12, 3:21 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT84 min
Jul 12, 3:39 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLOTLake15 days
Jul 12, 3:41 AM CDTHeat AdvisoryLOTFord, Grundy, LaSalle, Livingston12 hr
Jul 12, 4:15 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLOTLake14 days
Jul 12, 4:15 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLOTCook14 days
Jul 12, 4:38 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT97 min
Jul 12, 7:04 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLake, McHenry71 min
Jul 12, 7:23 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT97 min
Jul 12, 7:32 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLOTKane, Kendall19 days
Jul 12, 8:38 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLOTCook, DuPage52 min
Jul 12, 8:59 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLOT2 hr
Jul 12, 9:24 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook, DuPage, Lake21 min
Jul 12, 10:14 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTCook, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Will6 hr
Jul 12, 10:29 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryLOTCook36 hr
Jul 12, 10:57 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTLake, McHenry3 hr
Jul 12, 11:44 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLOTCook5 days
Jul 12, 11:44 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLOTKane, McHenry21 days
Jul 12, 11:44 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLOTCook4 days
Jul 12, 11:46 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLOTCook20 hr
Jul 12, 2:06 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningLOTCook, Kane, Lake, McHenry3 hr
Jul 12, 2:32 PM CDTFlash Flood WatchLOTBoone, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy, Iroquois and 10 more12 hr
Jul 12, 5:05 PM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryLOTCook4 days

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2017Every flash flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.