Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
809 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 808 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Storms across Indiana and Ohio are congealing into a QLCS as they
drop to the south. Best theta-e ridging is to the west where new
cells have been sprouting above pool of 70-75 degree dew points
ahead of the advancing cold front.

Still plenty of surface instability and sufficient shear ahead of
the storms. However mid-level lapse rates are not very steep and
AMDAR soundings out of SDF show some possible capping. Radars show
that the storms are becoming outflow-dominated, and mesoanalysis
shows CIN beginning to increase as the sun sets. So while storms
are expected to continue their southward push into Kentucky,
severe chances should slowly start to diminish as the evening
progresses.

.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...Strong to Severe Storms More Likely Late This Afternoon and
Evening...

Still on track for strong to severe storms to come through at least
our northern zones, south central IN, north central KY, late this
afternoon to this evening. How fast the line pushes southward will
determine how far south that threat gets, as we start to lose
daytime heating. As of this writing, it still looks like 4-8 is the
prime period for southern IN, 6-10 for north central KY, and 10-2 AM
for south central KY.

Airmass ahead of these storms will have plenty of energy to give.
Latest RAP analysis has CAPEs around 3000 J/kg with Downdraft CAPES
in the 1500-2000 J/kg range...likely because of some mid-level dry
air ahead of the line. A timely special sounding from ILN, at 18Z
and ahead of the outflow boundary in OH, indicates 4000 CAPE, though
quite a bit of dry air, 1.2 inch precipitable water. Based on wind
shear, expect supercell structures still are possible as elements
within the lines of storms dropping down from the north, and cannot
rule out an isolated tornado, but the main threat will be damaging
wind gusts with some hail.

A little similar to last night, behind the rains we may have to deal
with some patches of fog. Unlike last night though, the cold front
may bring slightly more winds to keep us better mixed. We may have a
few pockets of dense fog, but do not think it will be as widespread
as this morning.

Northwest surface winds Saturday will bring in drier and cooler
weather. Still looking at temperatures below normal. With high
pressure right over us Saturday night, we should see temperatures
cool into the 50s in some locations.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Nice weather will continue for Sunday, though after a cool start, we
should warmup to a little warmer than Saturday. A few models
continue to hint at some precip getting into southern IN late Sunday
afternoon, possibly as a result of a weak warm front lifting north
over the region or just as a result of instability in the warming
airmass. Superblend came in with dry pops for the day period and
slight chances in the north Sun. night.

Overall synoptic pattern for the next work week will have ridging
out west and northwest flow over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Small
disturbances riding within this flow will determine our rain chances
through the week as well as temperatures. Models have a difficult
time resolving these systems, which can either pass by to our north
in the morning, but leave outflow boundaries for afternoon storms to
focus on, or blast the system through here, bringing morning storms
and drier but cloudy afternoons. Will continue the practice we've
had over the last few days of capping the blended model rain chances
in the chance range because of this uncertainty. One thing we have
some confidence in is we'll be back to a humid pattern again, so any
days that do warm up significantly we could see heat indices get
into the mid/upper 90s.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Storms over Indiana will drop south and cross the SDF and LEX
airfields this evening. These storms may pack a wallop with strong
gusty winds, very heavy rain, and small hail. Things will calm down
behind the storms, with some patchy fog possibly developing toward
morning.

Quiet weather for the weekend.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
438 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

INZ077>079-090>092-KYZ029>043-048-049-082045-
Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Bullitt-Oldham-
Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Jessamine-
Including the cities of Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Corydon,
New Albany, Jeffersonville, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange,
Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown,
Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris,
Carlisle, Nicholasville, and Winchester
438 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front will move southeast across southern Indiana late this
afternoon and central Kentucky this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms
will accompany the front. A few storms could be severe with damaging
wind gusts and hail. Considerable lightning also is likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few rounds of thunderstorms are possible next week as a series of
weather disturbances aloft move southeast across the Ohio Valley. It
is too early to determine exact timing and location of storms.
However, any time from Monday through Thursday will feature a chance
of storms over parts of the Ohio Valley. A few strong storms could
occur during this time period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of strong winds, wind
damage, and large hail through tonight.

INZ076-083-084-089-KYZ023>028-045>047-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-082045-
Orange-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-
Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Jasper, English, Tell City,
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford,
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
438 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 /338 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold front will move southeast across southern Indiana late this
afternoon and central Kentucky this evening and overnight. Scattered
thunderstorms will accompany the front. A few of the storms could be
strong and considerable lightning also is likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few rounds of thunderstorms are possible next week as a series of
weather disturbances aloft move southeast across the Ohio Valley. It
is too early to determine exact timing and location of storms.
However, any time from Monday through Thursday will feature a chance
of storms over parts of the Ohio Valley. A few strong storms could
occur during this time period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of strong winds and
hail tonight.

13

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
910 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW SAINT MATTHEWS     38.27N 85.67W
07/07/2017                   JEFFERSON          KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN.

&&

RL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
913 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

KYZ029-034-038-039-045-046-080145-
Shelby-Bullitt-Spencer-Washington-Nelson-Anderson-
913 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SPENCER...SOUTH CENTRAL
SHELBY...NELSON...SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON...NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
CENTRAL BULLITT COUNTIES...

At 913 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Shelbyville to
Taylorsville to near Shepherdsville. Movement was southeast at 40
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. The
highest winds will be along the gust front ahead of the storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bardstown, Shepherdsville, Taylorsville, Mount Washington, Lebanon
Junction, Hebron Estates, Bloomfield, Fox Chase, Willisburg and
Yoder.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3811 8510 3790 8502 3788 8503 3785 8500
      3784 8500 3783 8501 3782 8501 3776 8518
      3773 8566 3804 8578 3807 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 331DEG 35KT 3807 8514 3801 8534 3801 8575

EER