Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
256 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

Surface analysis reveals a couple of fronts/boundaries across the
CWA at this hour. The first is a weak cold front across southern
Indiana that is slowly pushing to the southeast. A few showers and
storms are already firing up along portions of the front. The second
is a left-over outflow boundary from convection early this morning
that is draped across western and south-central Kentucky. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have already started developing along and
ahead of the boundary. Instability and shear along and ahead of the
boundary will support some strong to low-end severe storms.
Additionally, storm movement has generally been west to east,
suggesting potential for training storms along and ahead of the
boundary. PWATs are fairly high, with SPC mesoanalysis showing 1.5"-
1.7" across most of south-central Kentucky. FFG 1hr/3hr rates are
fairly high, though, so while not anticipating a big flash flood
threat, there could certainly be some isolated flash flood issues.

Showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon should push south and
east of the region early this evening. Clearing skies, light winds,
and saturated soils from recent rainfalls will allow fog to develop
overnight into the morning hours. Some of the latest guidance
suggests dense fog will be possible, but overall coverage of dense
fog is a bit uncertain at this time. Looks like southern Kentucky
would have the best shot of seeing some dense fog overnight into the
morning. Will highlight potential in the HWO, and if overall
confidence in coverage increases, a dense fog advisory may be needed
in subsequent forecast updates.

Weak frontal boundary will be near the Tennessee border by Sunday.
Drier air north of the frontal boundary should keep most locations
dry, with the exception of extreme south-central Kentucky where
their proximity to the boundary and higher dewpoints/moisture will
keep precipitation chances up. Convective activity should begin to
die down around sunset as afternoon heat source is lost. Patchy
dense fog could be possible again Sunday night into Monday morning
as skies clear and winds remain light.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

The long term period will feature an upper level ridge building in
across the Rocky Mountain range and High Plains region of the US,
and intensifying toward the end of the week, setting up a quasi-
omega block pattern. This will result in westerly to northwesterly
flow aloft and generally unsettled weather for our region next week,
as several waves are forecast to be embedded within the flow aloft.

While most days next week will feature isolated to scattered showers
and storms, the best chance of widespread precipitation looks to
come in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe as a strong shortwave
trough impacts the region. Subsidence behind the wave should keep
most of Friday dry.

Warm and humid conditions can also be expected next week, with highs
generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, and dewpoints around the 70
degree mark.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

Scattered convection will be possible across the region this
afternoon.  The best chances look to be at KBWG and KLEX this
afternoon.  Much of the activity will end by sunset with skies
becoming clear overnight. For now, plan on keeping VCSH in at KSDF
for some light showers moving through at the beginning of the period
and VCTS at KBWG and KLEX.  Ceilings and visibilities look to remain
VFR outside of any storm, with temporary drops to IFR if a storm
goes through the terminal.

For the overnight period, VFR conditions are expected, but there
remains a decent signal within the model data that patchy fog could
develop at the terminals overnight.  The fog may impact KBWG and
KLEX the most depending on how much rain falls this afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
Aviation...MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
302 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-021915-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
302 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 /202 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong to severe storms may be possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly across south central Kentucky. The main threat with
these storms will be damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Locally dense fog will be possible Sunday morning, especially across
areas that received rainfall on Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and
evening next week, including Independence Day. Severe weather is not
likely Monday or Tuesday, but Wednesday and Thursday may have more
organized storms as a cold front passes through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are welcome to report any strong to severe thunderstorms
they encounter.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

DM

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