Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
802 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Storms continue to drop south through central Kentucky along a gust
front put out by earlier storms over southern Indiana. Quick update
to the forecast to adjust PoPs in southern and middle Kentucky to
account for these storms.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Ridge over us showing signs of losing its cap, as cumulus field
grows early this afternoon.  Still expect scattered storms through
the afternoon, for all but our counties around Bowling Green, where
coverage should be more isolated. Heat indices outside of those
briefly cooling showers will be well into the 90s.

Next up will be storm chances for overnight. A subtle wave now over
the KS/MO border will shift eastward.  This system may bring just
enough instability to weaken the cap over us and allow for more
development late tonight. Flow aloft will continue to be relatively
weak.  A recent AMDAR sounding verified this with less than 20 knots
all the way up the column.

Boundaries in the area combined with a juicy airmass remaining in
place should aid in more areal coverage of storms for tomorrow,
though flow aloft will remain weak. So storms will be slow-moving
and will have to watch for localized flooding.  Temperatures may be
a degree lower for highs, as we get a little fewer breaks between
storms...but it still will be quite muggy with heat indices again
well into the 90s.

Additional disturbances aloft will move in Wed. night, maintaining a
threat for additional storms. Lows both tonight and Wed. night will
be several degrees above normal given the moist airmass in place.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

A stronger disturbance aloft looks to cross the region Thursday,
which will combine with that airmass in place to produce numerous
showers and storms. Again temperatures should be a little cooler for
highs, given the additional cloud cover. In the wake of that
disturbance we dry out briefly, with lower precipitable waters.
However, models bring yet another disturbance into the area on
progressive flow aloft. As just said though it won't have as much
moisture to work with, so expect isolated to widely scattered
afternoon storms.

Temperatures won't get cooler behind the Thursday system, as any
sort of drying and insolation will bring us back to around 90
Friday.

The pattern really doesn't change much for the weekend, with
continued disturbances and above normal temperatures making for rain
chances each day. Sunday's got another stronger disturbance, which
hopefully kicks this moisture out of the area and allows for a cool
down as a longer wave trough sets up over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move south out of Indiana and
through central Kentucky. SDF, LEX, and BWG are clearing out but
could still see a pop up shower or thunderstorm over the next hour
or two.

Overnight, skies should start to clear before rain chances increase
from the northeast. In the hours before daybreak, LEX's chance of a
shower or thunderstorm will increase. SDF's chances will soon
follow.

Wednesday morning, BWG could see some fog from all the added
moisture this evening and overnight clear skies, but this is
dependent on if temperatures can get low enough with a warm
southern wind.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
233 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-141845-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
233 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 /133 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast into the evening
hours. Storms will be slow moving and capable of torrential
rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast each day this week.
Storms will be slow-moving and capable of torrential rainfall,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds. The higher chance for more
widespread thunderstorms will be Thursday as a weak surface front
sinks into the area. Organized severe weather is not anticipated at
this time however. Another front will provide a better focus for
storms Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KYZ070>073-132345-
Warren-Logan-Simpson-Allen-
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FRANKLIN AREA...

At 619 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms from 8 miles
east of Russellville to 10 miles south of Three Springs. Movement
was east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Woodburn, Black Jack, Dennis, Rich Pond, Clare, Geddes,
Mcelroy Ford, Alonzo, and Trammel.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized minor flooding.

LAT...LON 3665 8659 3665 8682 3689 8680 3691 8644
      3664 8625 3665 8651 3663 8656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 286DEG 6KT 3681 8673 3677 8643

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KYZ061-070>072-140015-
Warren-Logan-Simpson-Butler-
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...MORE STORMS WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF BOWLING GREEN...

At 649 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms from 7 miles
south of Morgantown to near Portland. Movement was east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Auburn, Woodburn, Dimple, Black Jack, Rockland,
Geddes, Buffalo Fork, Middleton, and Sharer.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause minor localized flooding.

LAT...LON 3665 8659 3665 8676 3712 8680 3716 8654
      3665 8649 3665 8651 3664 8654 3664 8655
      3663 8656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 256DEG 6KT 3712 8670 3667 8664

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
807 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KYZ056-057-066-067-140030-
Lincoln-Madison-Garrard-Casey-
807 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN
GARRARD...MADISON...AND CASEY COUNTIES...

At 805 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms from north of
Richmond to 7 miles south of Stanford to 8 miles west of Liberty.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms. Winds of
that strength can knock over weakly rooted and unhealthy trees.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Liberty, Berea, Crab Orchard, Peytontown, Lawhorn Hill,
Teddy, Gilpin, Panola, and Broughtentown.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause minor localized flooding.

LAT...LON 3756 8416 3752 8420 3752 8426 3754 8435
      3747 8437 3748 8445 3733 8450 3735 8456
      3711 8492 3723 8506 3726 8506 3732 8516
      3745 8470 3786 8433 3772 8409 3767 8409
      3764 8413 3757 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 307DEG 19KT 3778 8426 3742 8464 3729 8509

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
734 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KYZ077-140100-
Adair-
734 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN ADAIR COUNTY...

At 733 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located northwest
of Columbia, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Pickett, Christine, Portland, Gradyville, Gadberry, Absher,
Bliss, Coburg, and Garlin.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized minor flooding.

LAT...LON 3712 8549 3717 8538 3723 8531 3724 8531
      3713 8513 3696 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 320DEG 5KT 3716 8537

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
747 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KYZ074-076-140115-
Metcalf-Barren-
747 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST OF EDMONTON...

At 746 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest
of Edmonton, drifting southeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wisdom, Center, Clarks Corner, Echo, Node, Knob Lick, Beechville,
Savoyard, Hiseville and Park.

LAT...LON 3712 8583 3717 8577 3717 8574 3714 8565
      3712 8563 3712 8561 3709 8553 3699 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 308DEG 5KT 3712 8573

13

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