Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
336 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017

...Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon and Evening...

Numerous showers and storms have erupted along a slow moving frontal
boundary this afternoon.  These storms have been slow to grow
upscale.  However, they have produced torrential rainfall and gusty
winds.  As we get into the late afternoon/evening hours, this
convection will continue to move southeast.  Given convective trends
so far this afternoon, still feel damaging winds will be a threat in
some of the stronger cells through this evening.  Also of note will
be the torrential rainfall as convection has had a tendency to train
especially near the I-64 corridor late this afternoon.  Will need to
watch convective trends throughout the evening especially along and
north of the I-64 corridor as flash flood guidance is lower in these
areas (as low as 1-1.5 inches per hr).  Isld instances of hail up to
1 inch may also be possible as a secondary threat.

After this complex of storms and the frontal boundary move southeast
through the area this evening, we may see a brief lull or less
activity by late evening or during the early morning hours.  Then
the boundary should lift back north as a low pressure moves
northeast along the boundary late tonight into Fri morning resulting
in another round of showers and perhaps some isld-sct t-storms
mainly over south central KY.  These storms should be non-severe but
may contain heavy rain which could cause some isld minor flooding
issues in areas that received t-storms this afternoon/evening.

Rain showers will diminish from NW to SE Fri during the day as the
parent low pressure system pulls away from the region.  Skies will
begin to clear Fri night.

Temperatures will be cooler post-frontal with highs dropping back
into the 60s Fri.  Lows will be in the upper 50s/lower 60s tonight
and then upper 40s/lower 50s Fri night.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017

A dry pattern looks in store for the coming weekend and the first
part of next week as an upper level ridge slowly moves into the
region.  As a result we'll see a gradual warm-up into the low 80s by
Sun and then into the upper 80s by next Tue/Wed.

By Thu, a southerly return flow with a few disturbances will setup
bringing rain/t-storm chances back into the region and at least
slightly cooler air.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017

Currently convection is redeveloping along the Ohio River and
working it's way southeast. This line will bring periods of showers
and scattered storms to all three TAF sites between 18-24z. Expect
MVFR visibility during periods of showers. As convection moves out
this evening, ceilings will lower to IFR at LEX and BWG, and SDF
will likely see MVFR during the morning hours. BWG may see another
round of showers and storms beginning 06-12z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
357 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-122000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
357 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 /257 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous storms are expected to continue through this evening.
Some of the storms could become severe with damaging winds and
torrential rainfall the main threats.  Small hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms early Friday could produce heavy rainfall
and localized minor flooding, especially over south-central
Kentucky.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
435 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

KYZ041-047>049-056-057-112130-
Mercer-Fayette-Jessamine-Clark-Madison-Garrard-
435 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MERCER...
NORTHWESTERN GARRARD...SOUTHERN CLARK...JESSAMINE...MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES from 430 to 530 pm edt...

Thunderstorms were moving east around 20 mph.

Torrential rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and winds up to 30 mph
are possible with these storms. The heavy rain may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Nicholasville, Harris Ferry, Wilmore, Peytontown, Valley
View, Jackson Ferry, Panola, Stone and Toddville.

LAT...LON 3786 8401 3787 8403 3784 8400 3783 8404
      3785 8406 3782 8407 3785 8408 3784 8410
      3782 8412 3781 8412 3782 8410 3781 8408
      3778 8411 3777 8408 3772 8410 3767 8409
      3764 8413 3770 8474 3792 8469 3792 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 274DEG 18KT 3783 8416

TWF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
441 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

KYZ067-112115-
Lincoln-
441 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

At 441 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Stanford,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanford, Crab Orchard, Hustonville, Boneyville, Milledgeville,
Jumbo, Ottenheim, Geneva, Rowland and Halls Gap.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3733 8460 3749 8484 3757 8479 3750 8448
      3749 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 300DEG 26KT 3751 8479

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
342 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

KYZ062-063-071-074-112115-
Hart-Warren-Edmonson-Barren-
342 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HART...
NORTHEASTERN WARREN...NORTHWESTERN BARREN AND EDMONSON COUNTIES...

At 342 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Brownsville to 6 miles north of Plum
Springs. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Munfordville, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Cave City,
Smiths Grove, Park City, Oakland, Chalybeate and Girkin.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3734 8580 3710 8596 3694 8616 3707 8647
      3732 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 285DEG 18KT 3727 8625 3711 8638

RJS

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