Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
351 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through this
evening in a warm, unstable environment with weak sfc boundaries.
Well removed from any major forcing mechanisms, any t-storms should
be below severe limits.  At best a t-storm may contain heavy
rainfall and gusty winds.  Convection will diminish after sunset
this evening from NW to SE.  Expect a dry period overnight tonight
with lows in the lower 60s.

For Thursday, a cold front will approach the area late in the day.
Ahead of the front, expect breezy southwest winds with gusts in the
25-30 mph range Thu afternoon.  The morning hours should be mainly
dry with precipitation chances increasing over southern Indiana
during the mid to late afternoon hours.

Clusters of storms along and just ahead of the cold front will enter
our region Thu evening and move ESE through the area Thu night.
Around 25-30 kts deep layer shear and around 1000 J/KG of CAPE
should be enough to support some strong storms Thu evening/night
with gusty winds up to 40-50 mph, small hail, and brief heavy
rainfall. Southern Indiana and north central KY will likely have the
best chance to see any stronger storms before instability really
decreases by late evening for south central/east central KY.

Highs on Thu should reach the lower 80s with lows Thu night ranging
from the lower 50s over S. Indiana to lower 60s over south central
KY.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

...Unsettled weather to continue through the weekend...

Friday...

The aforementioned cold front will settle near the KY/TN border for
Fri providing rain chances to mainly south central KY but a 20-30%
chance of rain will still be possible as far north as the Ohio River
and portions of southern IN during the day Fri. Feel that limited
instability will keep t-storm chances confined to south central KY.
The cooler post-frontal airmass will limit highs to the mid 60s to
low 70s.

Friday night rain chances will increase as a strong low pressure
system approaches the Ohio Valley.  Lows are expected to range from
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday...

Saturday confidence is increasing in a cool/rainy day for much of
the area.  Expect a couple different rounds of steady rain with
embedded isld-sct t-storms.  There is still some uncertainty as to
when the better rounds of precip will pass through our area but even
in between rounds scattered showers look likely.  With the sfc low
passing over south central KY or to the south, no severe weather is
anticipated with any storms attm.  However, this low pressure track
will also result in cool temps with many locations not making it out
of the upper 50s/low 60s for highs on Sat.  Some of the coldest
model guidance suggests highs only in the upper 40s in S. Indiana.

Rains will continue Sat evening and then begin to become lesser in
coverage Sat night after midnight.  Lows Sat night should fall into
the mid 40s to around 50.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Rains will linger into Sun morning but finally begin to exit the
area by late morning or early afternoon as the upper low finally
moves east of the region.  We'll enter a dry pattern with a warming
trend behind the weekend weather system.  Sunny skies will return
for Monday with temps warming through the 70s/low 80s for the first
portion of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Scattered showers will be possible at the front end of the forecast
period for all of the terminals.  Coverage will be widely scattered
west of I-65, but will likely be most concentrated in the Bluegrass
region of central KY (affecting KLEX).  Expect convection to wane by
early evening with skies going partially clear overnight.  It
appears that the boundary layer will stay mixed overnight precluding
fog formation.  Thursday will be mostly dry throughout the day with
gusty southwest winds expected.  Sustained winds of 10-15kts with
gusts up to 25kts will be possible at times.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
401 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-202015-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
401 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 /301 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce briefly heavy
rainfall and gusty winds this evening. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be over central Kentucky this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are expected Thursday late afternoon through the
evening as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. A few strong
storms may produce locally gusty winds, mainly in southern Indiana
and north-central Kentucky. Hail and brief heavy rainfall will also
be possible.

Another weather system will bring more rain and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday with brief
heavy rain possible at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday late afternoon and
evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
431 PM EDT WED APR 19 2017

KYZ063>065-192100-
Hart-Taylor-Green-
431 PM EDT WED APR 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREEN...EASTERN HART AND
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 431 PM EDT/331 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located near
Munfordville, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greensburg, Monroe, Bloyd, Lobb, Donansburg, Grab, Bunnell Crossing,
Whitewood, Defries and Gabe.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3719 8584 3736 8590 3742 8570 3742 8566
      3744 8566 3747 8557 3746 8556 3746 8555
      3745 8553 3747 8552 3748 8550 3723 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 255DEG 20KT 3730 8579

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
354 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

KYZ071>073-192130-
Warren-Simpson-Allen-
354 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SIMPSON...WESTERN ALLEN
AND SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 353 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 14 miles southeast of Russellville to 12
miles south of Three Springs to near Portland. Movement was northeast
at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Scottsville, Memphis Junction, Woodburn, Allen
Springs, West Fork, Rich Pond, Clare, Geddes and Greenhill.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3670 8659 3672 8674 3695 8655 3691 8624
      3668 8614 3664 8625 3665 8651 3663 8656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 233DEG 17KT 3676 8665 3675 8652 3665 8648

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
413 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

KYZ027-062-063-192145-
Hart-Grayson-Edmonson-
413 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HART...SOUTHEASTERN
GRAYSON AND NORTHEASTERN EDMONSON COUNTIES...

At 412 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Brownsville, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rock Creek, Cub Run, Lines Mill, Broadway, Broad Ford, Pearman, Snap,
Straw, Wax and Royal.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3750 8608 3727 8599 3727 8628 3735 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 249DEG 14KT 3734 8623

RJS