Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
800 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 759 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Lots going on.

Line of tornadic supercells will be exiting central Kentucky soon.
Have been shaving counties off the back of the Tornado Watch as the
line progresses.

Many Kentucky Mesonet sites have been reporting wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph behind the departing line of storms. Had an SPS out earlier,
but given the widespread nature of the winds and the possibility
that they may last for a few hours, went ahead and employed a Wind
Advisory after consulting with neighboring offices.

Issued at 605 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A broken line of severe thunderstorms has pushed east of the I-65
corridor, and individual cells continue to exhibit supercellular
characteristics as they move northeast at 55 mph. There have been
multiple reports of large hail of golf ball size and larger.

Supercell thunderstorms will continue to pose a significant risk for
large hail as they move toward Lexington, Danville, and
Campbellsville. WBZ heights are quite low, around 9,000 ft, with a
good amount of dry air in the mid levels.

Damaging winds are likely as well. DCAPE remains around 900-1000
J/kg roughly along an axis from Greensburg to Lexington. Forecast
soundings out ahead of the convection continue to show a nice
inverted V signature with the low-level dry air. There is still a
small risk for a tornado, but LCLs remain quite high at around 1250-
1500 meters.

Issued at 507 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A 5H speed max coming into western Kentucky and the Wabash Valley is
causing storms to blossom in a narrow corridor of PWAT around an
inch, deep moisture convergence, and upper level divergence. The
storms are expected to present a continuing, and possibly
increasing, wind threat as they proceed into areas east of I-65
where mid- and low-level lapse rates are steeper and DCAPE values
are higher. Large hail has been the main severe weather threat so
far with these storms, and that threat will continue.

The best tornado chances over the next few hours will be east of  I-
65 and south of the Blue Grass Parkway in area of best SRH/EHI, and
also near the warm front to the north.

.Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Severe Storms Likely this Afternoon/Evening...
...Windy Conditions Late Tonight and Thursday...

Broad area of low pressure, 999 mb, extends from central MO to
southern IL, with a warm front extending across southern IN this
hour. Sunshine warming up the warm sector quickly, but dewpoints
have stayed down according to area observations. Narrow area of
higher dewpoints over western TN this hour, but very narrow. Still
focused on potential for very large hail and damaging wind gusts as
cold pools come out of supercells. Looking at a better tornado
threat in a couple of areas, one over southern Indiana, along the
front and another across Lake Cumberland as LCL's start to fall.

Even outside of these storms, expect gusty winds because of the
pressure gradient associated with that low pressure. The gradient
will stick around overnight and Thursday. In fact, looking at very
windy conditions for the day Thursday, as much colder air pours in.
Likely we will issue a Wind Advisory later tonight for that Thursday
period, with gusts to around 40 mph.

In addition to the wind, expect showery conditions as moisture wraps
around the upper low travelling by to our north. We may see a brief
transition to rain/snow mix or just snow by daybreak Friday.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Freezing Temperatures May Return Early Saturday...

Friday morning will be near freezing, but with windy conditions not
expecting frost development. Saturday morning, high pressure will
move across the TN Valley, and that looks to be a better chance for
a freeze, especially in our normally colder locations.

High pressure then shifts east of the region and we should have
another warmup in store for the end of the weekend and the beginning
of the next work week. Our next good rain chance will come in Monday
night, as a cold front approaches.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The line of severe storms will clear LEX very quickly after the
official start of the new TAF period.

As tightly wound low pressure advances from IND to TOL tonight
winds will keep up, coming in from the WSW remaining gusty to 25-
30kt. Low clouds and spotty light rain showers will move in after
midnight with some wrap-around moisture behind the low.

Those clouds, and possibly the showers as well, will hang tough
through Thursday. Ceilings may lift into low end VFR in the
afternoon, though that may be somewhat optimistic. Winds will remain
strong and gusty from the west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Mesoscale......13/EBW
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
819 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

KYZ036-037-041>043-048-049-055>057-066-067-077-078-081-082-070030-
Scott-Harrison-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Jessamine-Clark-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Casey-Lincoln-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Cynthiana, Lexington, Paris,
Carlisle, Nicholasville, Winchester, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond,
Liberty, Stanford, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
819 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 /719 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 127 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Numerous storms are likely this evening as a cold front approaches
the region. Some of these storms will become quite vigorous with
severe weather likely until 10 PM EDT. Damaging winds, very large
hail, and a tornadoes are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Cold conditions will return to the area behind the strong cold
front. As a result, light snow may mix in with rain showers Friday
morning. Temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark Saturday
morning with frost or a freeze possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report hail of any size, strong winds or
wind damage, and any rotation in storms today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038>040-045>047-053-054-
061>065-070>076-070030-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Nelson-Mercer-Larue-Marion-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Logan-
Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin,
Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, and Edmonton
819 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 /719 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Non-thunderstorm winds will gust over 40 mph this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Cold conditions will return to the area behind the strong cold
front. As a result, light snow may mix in with rain showers Friday
morning. Temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark Saturday
morning with frost or a freeze possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report hail and damage from the storms
earlier today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

13

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