Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Louisville, KY

752 
WWUS53 KLMK 310305
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1105 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

KYC045-310314-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-170331T0330Z/
Casey KY-
1105 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CASEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3739 8471 3746 8486 3753 8486 3755 8485
      3756 8485 3769 8478 3763 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 210DEG 36KT 3755 8473 

$$

KYC021-079-137-310330-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-170331T0330Z/
Lincoln KY-Garrard KY-Boyle KY-
1105 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...WEST CENTRAL GARRARD AND EASTERN BOYLE
COUNTIES...

At 1104 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stanford,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Danville, Stanford, Lancaster, Junction City, Hustonville, South
Fork, Boneyville, Caldwell Manor, Milledgeville and Hedgeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 8471 3746 8486 3753 8486 3755 8485
      3756 8485 3769 8478 3763 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 210DEG 36KT 3755 8473 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ZT

155 
WWUS53 KLMK 310315
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1115 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

KYC021-079-137-310330-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-170331T0330Z/
Lincoln KY-Garrard KY-Boyle KY-
1115 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...WEST CENTRAL GARRARD AND EASTERN BOYLE
COUNTIES...

At 1115 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lancaster,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Danville, Stanford, Lancaster, Junction City, Caldwell Manor,
Hedgeville, Gilbert, Stuart Powell Field Airport, Logantown and
Rowland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 8463 3756 8478 3757 8482 3760 8482
      3763 8481 3769 8478 3763 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 210DEG 34KT 3764 8466 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ZT

966 
WWUS53 KLMK 310320
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1120 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

KYC021-079-137-310330-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-170331T0330Z/
Lincoln KY-Garrard KY-Boyle KY-
1120 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...WEST
CENTRAL GARRARD AND EASTERN BOYLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM
EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3751 8463 3756 8478 3757 8482 3760 8482
      3763 8481 3769 8478 3763 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 210DEG 34KT 3767 8464 

$$

ZT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1042 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Showers and thunderstorms still ongoing in the region at this hour.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows very little instability over central
KY and southern IN, though some storms still pose a severe risk. The
KY Mesonet station in western Taylor County reported a 61mph wind
gust within the past hour near a collapsing thunderstorm. Other
storms near the LMK/JKL CWA border have exhibited some weak
rotation aloft and have indicated the potential for strong to
severe weather.

Going forward, still expect there to be some strong to isolated
severe storms east of I-65 for the next few hours. Thunderstorm
activity should begin to die down after 05z-06z.

&&

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 625 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Severe Weather Risk Continues In The Ohio Valley...

While the tornado threat is looking less impressive with the warm
front well to our north, a line of storms continues its march across
western Kentucky. We're also seeing a smattering of convection over
south-central Kentucky, but nothing is getting very strong or
organized just yet as dewpoints have mixed down into the lower 50s
and shear is mostly unidirectional.

However, latest SPC mesoanalysis shows Downdraft CAPE maxed out over
central Kentucky at 800-900 J/kg. With this somewhat favorable
environment, any storms that can actually get up will be fairly
strong coming down. So the next few hrs will represent a narrowing
window for mainly pulse-severe winds.

&&

.Short Term...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

In the near term, partly to mostly cloudy skies were noted across
the region.  Stream of mid-high level cloudiness continued to move
northeastward across the area.  Temperatures were warm with
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across southern Indiana and mid-
upper 70s across Kentucky.  A few spots across southeast and east KY
have topped 80 degrees.  In general, we expect the weather to remain
rather quiet for the next few hours with temperatures remaining
generally steady.

For this evening and tonight, main concern remains around strong to
severe thunderstorms impacting the region.  Previous thinking was
that a strong line of storms would move in from the west and swing
through the region this evening.  That still looks to be on track,
but the overall confidence in convective evolution and strength of
the storms is in question.  While the earlier model runs had been
suggesting a destabilizing atmosphere this afternoon, the cirrus
shield aloft has kept temperatures down.  Proximity soundings are
not as moist as the models suggested and mid-level lapse rates are
not all that steep.  Surface moisture is also not as high as the
models progged either.  Current dewpoints range from the upper 40s
in the east to the lower 50s in the west.

Our current thinking is that convection will start to develop in the
21-23Z time frame in the vicinity of the I-65 corridor of central KY
and grow upscale.  At the same time, convective line along the cold
front in western KY will sweep eastward.  This should result in a
rather large convective complex developing across the central part
of the CWA and then move eastward into eastern KY overnight.  This
idea is supported by the last few runs of the operational HRRR,
experimental HRRR, and the NSSL WRF ARW CAM models.  Depending on
the degree of instability that develops prior to convective
development, strong to severe convection still looks likely, though
the overall coverage may be less than previously thought.
Nonetheless, damaging winds and isolated large hail look to be the
main severe weather threats.

In regards to the tornado threat, initial tornado threat this evening
will be to our north along the retreating warm front across central
IN/OH where the low level flow is much more backed which is where
the low-level helicity is maximized.  Forecast wind fields in the
lower atmosphere continue to show more of a speed shear profile
without much in the way of turning in the low levels.  Latest model
proximity soundings do not suggest much in the way of low-level
backing prior to convection developing, so the tornado threat looks
relatively low in areal coverage.  However, can not completely rule
out an isolated tornado within the convective line, especially where
some localized surface wind backing could occur.

Convection will end from west to east late tonight with low
temperatures falling into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Upper low
will push through the region on Friday which will result in a
cool/cloudy/showery day across the region.  Highs will likely top
out in the lower 50s with lows Friday night cooling into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The weekend continues to look dry and quiet as high pressure will
nose in from Canada.  Saturday will likely start off cloudy with a
slow clearing trend throughout the day as the low levels take time
to dry out.  Highs will range from the upper 50s across southern IN
and the northern Bluegrass with lower 60s across the I-65 corridor
to southern KY.  With more clearing expected Saturday night,
temperatures should drop into the upper 40s across SE IN into the
northern Bluegrass with lower 40s elsewhere.  Southerly flow will
become re-established by Sunday which should allow temperatures to
quickly warm back into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows Sunday
night look to cool back into the 50s.

Next weather system in the form of a closed upper low will roll
eastward through the TN Valley Monday and Tuesday.  Bulk of the
strong storms associated with this feature will likely remain to our
south.  However, widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms
will affect the region Monday and into early Tuesday.  Temperatures
will remain mild with highs in the mid-upper 60s with overnight lows
in the lower 50s.

A brief period of dry weather looks likely for Tuesday, but with the
fast progressive flow aloft, another system will streak through the
region on Wednesday bringing yet another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region.  Highs Wednesday will be in the upper
60s to around 70, with highs on Thursday only warming into the upper
50s to the lower 60s.

A look ahead shows a rather large negative height anomaly developing
along the eastern US.  Both the GFS and Euro are in decent agreement
with this feature which should bring more unsettled and cooler than
normal weather to the region.

&&

.Aviation...()
Issued at 710 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing across the region at
this time. Latest high-res models indicate that the line of
convection on the western fringes of the CWA will begin to dissipate
as it tracks eastward, while new convective development will occur
across central TN/KY and move northeastward. This would result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms for several hours this evening
before the activity shifts off to the northeast after 07z. Any
strong showers and thunderstorms could produce local MVFR/IFR
cigs/vis for a brief period of time.

After the shower and thunderstorm activity moves northeastward,
we'll have a brief period of VFR cigs/vis before MVFR/IFR cigs move
in from the west. Forecast model soundings hold the low level
stratus in place for most of the morning and afternoon tomorrow.
Winds will be breezy out of the southwest and gusts could approach
or exceed 20kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Update...DM
Short Term...MJ
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
356 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-312000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
356 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 /256 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the outlook
area this evening. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe
with damaging winds and large hail being the primary severe weather
threats. An isolated tornado threat exists in areas west of
Interstate 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Monday and again on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1023 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

KYZ056-057-066-067-310300-
Lincoln-Madison-Garrard-Casey-
1023 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN
GARRARD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND EAST CENTRAL CASEY COUNTIES...

At 1023 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles west of Bee
Lick, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mccreary, Berea, Crab Orchard, Round Hill, Ottenheim, Gilbert,
Broughtentown, Walltown, Buggytown and Cartersville.

LAT...LON 3752 8428 3752 8430 3754 8430 3753 8432
      3754 8432 3754 8435 3752 8436 3750 8435
      3747 8437 3748 8445 3733 8450 3735 8456
      3724 8472 3729 8482 3772 8448 3760 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 212DEG 49KT 3733 8467

ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1039 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE HOBSON            37.45N 85.36W
03/30/2017                   TAYLOR             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF OF A HOME NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF FEATHER CREEK ROAD AND HWY
            289.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1043 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

KYZ066-067-077-078-081-082-310315-
Russell-Cumberland-Lincoln-Casey-Adair-Clinton-
1043 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...
NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...RUSSELL...NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...CASEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 1043 PM EDT/943 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located over
Jamestown, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Jamestown, Russell Springs, Desda, Eli, Lawhorn Hill,
Cundiff, Teddy, Royville and Sano.

LAT...LON 3685 8539 3743 8491 3733 8459 3712 8490
      3705 8491 3700 8484 3695 8491 3696 8495
      3692 8496 3686 8506 3678 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 213DEG 39KT 3702 8504

ZT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1047 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

KYZ028-029-038-045-310315-
Bullitt-Spencer-Nelson-Hardin-
1047 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SPENCER...NORTHWESTERN
NELSON...EASTERN HARDIN AND BULLITT COUNTIES...

At 1046 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms extending from
near Elizabethtown to near Bardstown. Movement was northeast at 50
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Taylorsville, Mount Washington, Lebanon
Junction, Wakefield, Yoder, Highgrove, Waterford and Samuels Field
Airport.

LAT...LON 3807 8519 3776 8551 3771 8564 3773 8568
      3768 8572 3761 8590 3803 8557 3812 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 215DEG 43KT 3769 8579 3778 8556

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1049 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N BLACK GNAT          37.35N 85.46W
03/30/2017  M61 MPH          TAYLOR             KY   MESONET

            .

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1051 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

KYZ039-046-047-310315-
Mercer-Washington-Anderson-
1051 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MERCER...SOUTHERN
ANDERSON AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 1050 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Springfield, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ballard, Willisburg, Mackville, Dugansville, Anderson City,
Glensboro, Polin, Johnsonville, Seaville and Ashbrook.

LAT...LON 3798 8485 3769 8509 3774 8527 3789 8517
      3789 8515 3791 8515 3804 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 207DEG 37KT 3777 8513

ZT