Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
626 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

Two squall lines will push rapidly through the area this morning,
and have prompted Tornado Watch 53 through 16Z. NE-SW oriented
squall line dropping in from Indiana is showing quite a few
rotational couplets in addition to SVR wind gusts, so that will be a
dual threat across southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky. The
north-south oriented section of the line is just this side of the
Mississippi and will move very quickly eastward across Kentucky.
This line likely packs the more widespread damaging wind threat.
Leading-line convection could actually push well into eastern
Kentucky by 15-16Z.

&&

.Short Term...(This afternoon through Thursday evening)
Issued at 309 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...

Nocturnal severe weather continues across parts of central Kentucky,
with the Tornado Watch now expanded into the Bluegrass region.
Expect these clusters of storms to push through and exit close to
the scheduled 10Z watch expiration, with all modes of severe weather
still on the table.

Squall line associated with the actual cold front extends from near
Fort Wayne to Terre Haute to St Louis, and will continue to push
south and east through the morning. Southern Indiana will be back
under the gun shortly before daybreak, with the line pushing into
Kentucky by mid-morning. Main threat will be damaging winds, but
there have been plenty of marginal hail reports upstream and we
can't rule out a brief meso-vortex tornado along the line.

Will clear from NW to SE during the first half of the afternoon,
after which temperatures will drop rapidly through through the 50s
by evening with gusty west winds peaking around 30-35 mph. Gusts to
40 mph aren't out of the question, but will handle the question of
any advisories once we get through most of the SVR threat. Dry high
pressure will settle over the Southern Plains tonight and Thursday,
with tranquil weather and seasonal temps across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.Long Term...(After midnight Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

Expect a cool end to the work week as a Clipper scoots past to our
north Thu night/Fri morning. Will carry slight chance POPS generally
north of I-64, and it'll be cold enough to mix in a few snowflakes,
but precip too light and surface temps too warm for any significant
impacts. Temps will run solidly below normal on Friday, and Sat
morning will be the coldest as a 1036mb high settles over Kentucky.

Warming trend begins during the day on Sat as upper ridging builds
from the SW, resulting in a mild and dry weekend. Next storm system
approaches early next week, with SW flow deepening on Monday and
POPs ramping up. For now will limit the high POPs to Mon night where
model agreement is best, but if the GFS wins out that could be
extended or even delayed into Tue. Confidence is high that temps
will be unseasonably warm early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

Fast moving squall line will push through the terminals by mid/late
morning. Tried to time out the best hour or two for wind gusts up to
35-40 kt, which may even be conservative for BWG where the squall
line will be oriented more north-south.

Once the storms push through, expect very gusty west winds through
the afternoon. This wind direction is problematic because it is
perpendicular to the long runways at SDF, and also the main runway
at LEX. At the very least could be some bumpy approaches, and/or SDF
switching to the crossing runway.

Winds subside and skies clear this evening as high pressure settles
into the Southern Plains.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057.

&&

Update...RAS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
617 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-021130-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, and Richmond
617 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 /517 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this morning as a squall line moves
through the Ohio Valley. The main threat will be damaging winds, but
hail or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

In addition, flash flooding will be possible and a Flash Flood Watch
is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any severe weather or flooding today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ061>067-070>078-081-082-021130-
Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
617 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 /517 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this morning as a squall line
pushes through the region. The main threat will be damaging winds,
but large hail or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any severe weather today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
721 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW BORDEN            38.48N 85.97W
03/01/2017                   CLARK              IN   PUBLIC

            FLAG POLE BENT AND ROOF SHINGLES OFF A
            HOUSE.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
726 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 AM     TSTM WND DMG     AUSTIN                  38.74N 85.81W
03/01/2017                   SCOTT              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            5 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH FELL OR THROWN
            THROUGH ROOF INTO BATHROOM IN A HOME. .

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
728 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 S EMINENCE            38.33N 85.17W
03/01/2017  M68 MPH          SHELBY             KY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 S EMINENCE /CROP/.

&&

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
733 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BARDSTOWN               37.81N 85.47W
03/01/2017                   NELSON             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIMBS STRIPPED OFF TREES AROUND A HOUSE.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
736 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW VIENNA            38.65N 85.78W
03/01/2017                   SCOTT              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES BLOWN ONTO INTERSTATE 65 JUST SOUTH OF
            SCOTTSBURG, IN.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW MEMPHIS            38.46N 85.79W
03/01/2017                   CLARK              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AT EBENEZER CHURCH
            ROAD AND COLUMBUS MANN ROAD.

&&

KDW