Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Louisville, KY

047 
WWUS53 KLMK 221829
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

KYC151-221845-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-170822T1845Z/
Madison KY-
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY...

At 229 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Richmond,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Harris Ferry, Caleast, Moberly, Panola, Speedwell, Bybee,
College Hill, Combs and Terrill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 8408 3778 8411 3777 8408 3776 8409
      3774 8408 3774 8410 3773 8409 3772 8410
      3769 8409 3768 8410 3767 8409 3764 8413
      3769 8443 3781 8436 3784 8409 3781 8412
      3782 8410 3781 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 267DEG 29KT 3775 8420 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHOETTMER

015 
WWUS53 KLMK 221846
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

KYC151-221855-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-170822T1845Z/
Madison KY-
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3779 8408 3778 8411 3777 8408 3776 8409
      3774 8408 3774 8410 3773 8409 3772 8410
      3769 8409 3768 8410 3767 8409 3764 8413
      3769 8443 3781 8436 3784 8409 3781 8412
      3782 8410 3781 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 267DEG 29KT 3776 8406 

$$

SCHOETTMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
136 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Updating the forecast to add in Severe Thunderstorm Warning #462.
SPC Meso page showing band of 3-4 thousand CAPE out ahead of the
developing band of convection from Tell City to New Albany to
Bedford, KY. Not seeing anything too tall, but just had a report of
some gusty winds out of a storm in Crawford county and anticipate as
these storms move into that more unstable environment they will
continue to grow upstream.

Also have a band of storms developing from Glasgow northeast to
Lexington. These are not tall yet, and the shear is not as great
there...so the focus for now is on the northern line.

Issued at 910 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Forecast pretty much on track for today. Seeing a weakening line of
showers/storms about to move into Dubois county. Expect boundaries
out ahead of the main cold front to initiate new storms as we heat
up. Soundings show decent enough shear that a few of the stronger
cells could produce wind gusts to 60 mph, some small hail, and
briefly heavy rain. No need for a zone update at this time.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A strong cold front will bring a line or a few broken lines of
showers and storms to the region today.  Convection could start as
early as mid morning mainly over southern IN or west central KY.
Convection will grow upscale this afternoon and continue into the
evening hours as it pushes SE through the region.  Most CAMs
indicate enough instability (2500-3000 j/kg) along with 25-35 kts of
0-6 km bulk shear should precede convection this afternoon/evening
to provide a strong to severe storm threat.  The main severe threat
will be damaging winds with storms this afternoon & evening.  If
convection starts early in the day over southern IN/northern KY and
provides enough of a cloud shield, forecast instability may not be
realized during the afternoon/evening hours causing storms to be
weaker in nature.  Convection will exit to the SE late tonight into
Wed morning.

Temperatures today should reach the mid to upper 80s in most
locations with 90 degrees possible over south central KY.  Lows
tonight will range through the 60s to around 70.

A cool, dry pattern will start Wed in the upper troughing behind the
front.  High temps Wed will fall back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Wednesday Night - Saturday...

Cool, dry weather will persist through the end of the week as a
broad upper level trough sticks in the area.  Expect high temps to
remain in the upper 70s/lower 80s which is slightly below normal for
this time of year.  Low temps will range through the 50s.

Sunday - Monday...

For the beginning of next week, the remnants of a tropical cyclone
look to move NE into the region.  While the op GFS is faster than
the ECMWF, both carry the same idea.  Therefore kept low POPs going
the beginning of next week.  The ECMWF is much slower than the GFS
however so either Sun/Mon could be dry but will go with the
consensus for now.

Temperatures may take a slight rebound with highs in the lower 80s
Sun/Mon.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Bands of showers and thunderstorms oriented NE to SW have
developed out ahead of a cold front. As of this writing, the cold
front was still draped from northern Indiana back through central
IL/MO. The main aviation impact through early evening will be
gusty SW winds and an occasional thunderstorm with associated
vsbys drops. Vsbys will likely drop to IFR in heavier showers.
Although prevailing winds are southwest ahead of the cold front,
localized winds may shift westerly or even northwesterly after an
individual band moves through. Occasional gusts to around 20 kts
are expected through early evening as well.

As convection moves out late tonight into Wednesday morning, MVFR
stratus is likely to develop at BWG/LEX until the low level moisture
can clear the state. The rest of Wednesday looks dry and VFR, with
scattered cumulus and a 5-8 kt northerly wind.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...EBW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1251 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

INZ089>092-KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-231700-
Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Spencer-
Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-
Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-
Including the cities of Tell City, Corydon, New Albany,
Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg,
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange,
Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown,
Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris,
Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville,
Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, and Stanford
1251 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 /1151 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening as a significant
cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley. A few severe storms are
forecast, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Other
concerns will be brief heavy rain, small hail, and cloud-to-ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any strong winds or wind damage in
storms this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-KYZ026-061-062-070>078-081-082-231700-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Ohio-Butler-
Edmonson-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Hartford, Morgantown, Brownsville, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
1251 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 /1151 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and
evening as a significant cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley.
Isolated severe storms are possible. The main hazards will be
isolated damaging winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any strong winds or wind damage in
storms this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

AMS/RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
153 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

KYZ054-064>067-076-077-221830-
Metcalfe-Marion-Taylor-Lincoln-Casey-Adair-Green-
153 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN MARION...TAYLOR...CENTRAL CASEY...
CENTRAL METCALFE AND ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 153 PM EDT/1253 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from 12 miles north of Liberty to 8
miles east of Campbellsville to near Edmonton. Movement was east at
20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Campbellsville, Columbia, Edmonton, Hustonville,
Bradfordsville, Peytons Store, Pickett, Curtis and Absher.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3691 8572 3735 8539 3752 8514 3747 8471
      3721 8497 3717 8503 3719 8504 3711 8510
      3693 8534 3694 8545 3692 8546
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 273DEG 18KT 3749 8499 3732 8519 3694 8564

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
209 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

KYZ049-055>057-066-067-221845-
Boyle-Clark-Lincoln-Madison-Garrard-Casey-
209 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LINCOLN...
GARRARD...SOUTHERN CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN BOYLE...MADISON AND NORTH
CENTRAL CASEY COUNTIES...

At 209 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Westbend to near Stanford. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Danville, Stanford, Lancaster, Harris Ferry, Mccreary,
Berea, Junction City, Crab Orchard and Hustonville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3792 8399 3786 8401 3787 8403 3784 8400
      3785 8406 3782 8407 3785 8408 3782 8412
      3781 8408 3778 8411 3777 8408 3767 8410
      3754 8435 3748 8442 3748 8445 3744 8448
      3750 8497 3793 8423 3795 8398 3793 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 262DEG 29KT 3795 8404 3756 8469

SCHOETTMER