Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Louisville, KY

733 
WWUS53 KLMK 272021
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYC021-079-137-272030-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-170527T2030Z/
Lincoln KY-Garrard KY-Boyle KY-
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN LINCOLN...CENTRAL GARRARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BOYLE
COUNTIES...

At 420 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lancaster,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. Spotters reported marble size hail near 
         Junction City.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Danville, Stanford, Lancaster, Junction City, Marcellus, Boneyville,
Hedgeville, Marksbury, Gilbert and Rowland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8472 3759 8483 3775 8462 3776 8461
      3774 8461 3775 8460 3756 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 239DEG 26KT 3766 8464 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AMS

990 
WWUS53 KLMK 272034 RRA
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
434 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYC021-079-137-272044-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-170527T2030Z/
Lincoln KY-Garrard KY-Boyle KY-
434 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LINCOLN...CENTRAL
GARRARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BOYLE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3749 8472 3759 8483 3775 8462 3776 8461
      3774 8461 3775 8460 3756 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 239DEG 26KT 3770 8456 

$$

AMS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...Severe Weather Chances Continue Through Sunday...

For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect. The capping from this morning has
eroded and the region has become rather unstable with 3000+ J/kg of
SBCAPE across central KY and just a bit less across southern IN.
DCAPE values are highest across north central KY and southern IN
while shear is highest across south central KY. Storms are expected
to continue to develop in this environment through the afternoon and
into the evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main
threats this afternoon. Lightning could also be a concern for anyone
participating in outdoor activities as well as very heavy rainfall.

The scattered storms from this afternoon and evening should diminish
and push off to the east this evening. The attention then turns to
the overnight hours and the MCS that will be moving out of MO. The
models are still struggling with the evolution and eventual path of
this system as well as how strong it will be by the time it nears
the forecast area. The area most likely to see damaging winds looks
to be southwest central KY. The storms should begin to move into the
forecast area around midnight or just after and push eastward
through the overnight hours. They will begin to weaken as they move
in, and become more scattered in nature, particularly across north
central KY and southern IN. The main threat overnight will be
damaging wind gusts. However, heavy rain could also lead to some
localized instances of flooding as well, so will keep the Flash
Flood Watch going.

Storms will be moving out during the morning hours on Sunday. There
should then be a relative lull in the precipitation through the
afternoon in the wake of the overnight system. The severe potential
for late Sunday afternoon/evening is somewhat dependent on how the
atmosphere recovers. Models do show moderate instability developing
again during the afternoon. Most of the mesoscale models show storms
developing again late afternoon into the evening hours across
southern IN as a cold front moves in. These storms do have the
potential to become strong to severe if the instability does develop
with strong winds and hail possible. However, this is somewhat
conditional. These storms should move through during the evening
into the early overnight hours. We will then dry out towards dawn on
Monday.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Memorial Day will be dry with clouds clearing out during the day.
Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A frontal
boundary will work into the region Monday evening. A few models try
to develop some showers along this boundary, but they look to dry up
as they move into southern IN, so have kept the forecast dry for now.

A trough will set up across the eastern CONUS and remain in place
through much of the week. In addition, there will be a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary that may be in the vicinity as well.
Weak disturbances rotating through the upper level flow will bring
off and on chances for showers and storms through the week. However,
it will certainly not be a washout all week. High temps through the
week will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Forecast confidence is fairly low as the hi-res models are starting
to lose their handle on what will happen. Main challenges are
convective potential this afternoon, and then the impact of the MCS
likely to affect at least some part of Kentucky late tonight.

MVFR stratus deck that has taken SDF and LEX in and out of fuel-
alternate this morning is finally dissipating. Initialization looks
like a last-minute call but may be able to start off VFR, but any
cloud deck will be between 2000-3000 feet.

For this afternoon, the air mass is quite moist and unstable, with
quite a few boundaries left behind by convection that passed well to
our north last night. Most model runs show scattered storms popping
up after 19-20Z, and that seems reasonable but we will limit the
VCTS mention to SDF and LEX, where the strong mid-level cap is
likely to erode first. Look for any storms that develop to dissipate
around sunset, as wind fields appear too weak to provide much
organization.

The evening looks mainly dry, but the much-anticipated, outflow-
dominated MCS will roll quickly across the area after midnight.
Given the expected structure of this system, will hit winds hard,
with 30-40 kt gusts at times. Still some question as to the track,
and will only carry a TEMPO at BWG, which seems most likely to be
impacted. With the lower confidence at SDF and LEX, will only carry
a PROB30, and not hit the winds quite as hard.

Low ceilings will linger into the morning behind the convective
complex, but the best chance of continued precip and lower ceilings
will be at BWG as the heavier convection could train across
Tennessee on Sunday morning. Will carry fuel-alternate ceilings and
mention VCSH. Afternoon convection along the synoptic cold front
should be late enough to be beyond the scope of BWG and LEX TAFs,
but will mention VCTS/CB at SDF late in the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ027>030-034>036-
     038>042-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
Aviation.......RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

KYZ027>030-034>036-038>042-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
281900-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Spencer-
Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-
Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-
Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-
Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Louisville, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
255 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 /155 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon. Some storms may
be strong to severe with damaging winds, large hail, and very heavy
rainfall. In addition, numerous lightning strikes may lead to
dangerous conditions for those participating in outdoor activities.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
central Kentucky after midnight. Damaging winds, lightning, and
heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast again Sunday evening as a cold
front crosses the area. The strongest storms could produce damaging
wind gusts and hail. Areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall
could see more hydro concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report wind damage, hail, and instances of
flooding to the National Weather Service through the weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-031>033-037-043-281900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Nicholas-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Cynthiana, and Carlisle
255 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 /155 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon. Some storms may
be strong to severe with damaging winds, large hail, and very heavy
rainfall. In addition, numerous lightning strikes may lead to
dangerous conditions for those participating in outdoor activities.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
the area after midnight. Damaging winds, lightning, and brief heavy
rainfall will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast again Sunday evening as a cold
front crosses the area. The strongest storms could produce damaging
wind gusts and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report wind damage, hail, and instances of
flooding to the National Weather Service through the weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

INZ076-084-272000-
Crawford-Orange-
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES...

At 332 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
English, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
English, Wickliffe, Ethel, Grantsburg, Fargo, Taswell, Eckerty,
Mifflin and Bacon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3830 8666 3841 8666 3841 8642 3827 8642
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 277DEG 14KT 3837 8660

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
337 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ056-066-067-077-078-272015-
Russell-Lincoln-Garrard-Casey-Adair-
337 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN GARRARD...NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL...CASEY AND NORTHEASTERN
ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 337 PM EDT/237 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from 10 miles southwest of Stanford to
8 miles southwest of Liberty. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Crab Orchard, Lawhorn Hill, Windsor, Teddy, Ottenheim,
Gilpin, Broughtentown, Walltown and Geneva.

LAT...LON 3747 8437 3748 8445 3733 8450 3735 8455
      3712 8490 3705 8491 3720 8520 3746 8481
      3751 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 260DEG 32KT 3740 8476 3723 8504

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ054-055-065>067-077-272015-
Boyle-Marion-Taylor-Lincoln-Casey-Adair-
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR...SOUTHWESTERN BOYLE...
NORTHWESTERN CASEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 346 PM EDT/246 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from 9 miles north of Liberty to 11
miles southeast of Campbellsville. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stanford, Hustonville, Peytons Store, Knifley, Bass, Milledgeville,
Clementsville, Feathersburg, Forkland and Jacktown.

LAT...LON 3757 8459 3724 8515 3725 8529 3757 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 244DEG 29KT 3746 8492 3727 8516

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             ENGLISH                 38.34N 86.46W
05/27/2017  M0.50 INCH       CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             3 W DANVILLE            37.65N 84.83W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       BOYLE              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SZAPPANOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KYZ040-047-048-055>057-272030-
Boyle-Mercer-Woodford-Jessamine-Madison-Garrard-
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MERCER...SOUTHEASTERN
WOODFORD...NORTHWESTERN GARRARD...JESSAMINE...NORTHEASTERN BOYLE AND
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

At 400 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Harrodsburg,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nicholasville, Harrodsburg, Wilmore, Burgin, Marksbury, Faulconer,
Riverview Estates, Jessamine, Stone and Toddville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3766 8466 3774 8495 3798 8476 3779 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 239DEG 26KT 3775 8474

AMS