Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Louisville, KY

798 
WWUS53 KLMK 182207
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
607 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

INC117-175-182230-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-170518T2230Z/
Orange IN-Washington IN-
607 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 606 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located northeast of Paoli, 
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Campbellsburg, Livonia, Saltillo, Claysville, Bromer and Syria. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 8643 3865 8643 3867 8622 3861 8623
      3854 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 275DEG 20KT 3860 8638 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHOETTMER

453 
WWUS53 KLMK 182216
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
616 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

INC117-175-182230-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-170518T2230Z/
Orange IN-Washington IN-
616 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ORANGE AND WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 616 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of
Paoli, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Campbellsburg, Livonia, Claysville and Bromer. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3857 8637 3863 8635 3867 8622 3861 8623
      3854 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 275DEG 20KT 3860 8631 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHOETTMER

365 
WWUS53 KLMK 182222
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
622 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

INC117-175-182230-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-170518T2230Z/
Orange IN-Washington IN-
622 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ORANGE AND WEST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved east into Washington 
County. Therefore the warning for Orange County will be allowed to 
expire. 

Remember, a new Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for 
Washington County until 645 PM EDT. 

LAT...LON 3857 8637 3863 8635 3867 8622 3861 8623
      3854 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 275DEG 20KT 3860 8630 

$$

RAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
234 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

Current surface analysis reveals broad southwesterly flow across the
region and relatively warm temperatures in the 80s. Upper air
analysis/satellite show a weak elevated boundary oriented from
northeast to southwest along the Indiana/Kentucky borders. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have fired off along the boundary this
morning, though most have remained weak in nature. Could see some
more scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with the
greatest chances along the boundary.

Cold front associated with a low pressure system over southern
Quebec will begin pushing south over parts of the Ohio River Valley
region tonight and stall out near the I-64 corridor tomorrow
morning. Additionally, an MCS from convection overnight in the
Plains will weaken and approach the region from the west tomorrow
morning. The stalled cold front and remnant MCV/outflow boundaries
will provide lift for showers and thunderstorms during the day
Friday. Some strong to severe storms are certainly possible, as
environment will be characterized by moderate to high instability
(+2500 J/KG) and decent deep layer shear (~30kts 0-6km). Main
threats with storms should be strong winds and hail. Heavy rainfall
in storms is also a possibility, as PWATs will be near ~1.5". Don't
think flash flooding will be too much of a concern as storm motions
should keep storms from settling over one area for an extended
period of time.

The stalled cold front will begin to lift northward as a warm front
Friday night into Saturday morning. While most areas will have the
chance to see showers and storms overnight Friday, best chances for
storms should be along and near the warm front as it lifts
northward. Environment parameters will support a couple strong to
severe storms during the overnight hours.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

By Saturday morning, warm front from Friday near the I-64 corridor
should be north of the CWA. This will place the region deep within
the warm sector in an environment characterized by moderate to high
instability and deep moisture, but marginal deep layer shear. Models
vary with QPF, as the NAM/Canadian keeps things mostly dry and
capped until late Saturday afternoon while most other medium to long
range models develop scattered convection all day long. Given how
things evolve Friday night, any leftover boundaries or outflow could
certainly serve as focal points for convection, so can't rule out
storms during the morning and afternoon. As a result, will take a
blended forecast solution for now. A few storms that develop
Saturday could be strong to severe with wind/hail being the main
threats.

Strong cold front is progged to move through region late Saturday
night into Sunday. Models develop a line of showers and storms ahead
of a pre-frontal trough and cold front, and with marginal
shear/instability values, can't rule out a few strong storms. Cooler
and drier air will begin filtering in from the west late Sunday
afternoon.

High pressure builds in to the region Monday and keeps things cool
and dry, though the dry weather may be short-lived. Long range
models prog another cold front to impact the region around the
Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe and develop a line of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front. Some timing/placement issues still
need to be worked out but overall pattern looks to be cool and
unsettled.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through much
of the period.  Plume of convection may develop later this afternoon
across western KY/southern IL/southern IN and that may pose a VCSH
threat at KSDF.  HRRR is most robust with convective potential,
though the 3KM NAM run was much drier.  For now, will maintain a
VCSH period at KSDF through 19/00Z.  Southwest winds of 12-15kt with
gusts to 20kts will be possible through the afternoon.  VFR
conditions are expected this evening and into the overnight.
However, some overnight convection is likely to develop after 19/09Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
Aviation...MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
237 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-191845-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
237 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 /137 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. The main hazards are
lightning and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A daily chance of thunderstorms is expected Friday through Sunday
across the outlook area. The most widespread thunderstorm activity is
expected Friday and again on Sunday. Any strong storm could produce
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail.

Thunderstorms are again in the forecast next Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not planned at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
548 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

INZ076-077-182215-
Orange-Washington-
548 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ORANGE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

At 548 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 11 miles northwest of Salem to just
nnorthwest of Paoli. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Paoli, Orleans, Orangeville, Campbellsburg, West Baden Springs,
Saltillo, Kossuth, Leipsic, Woodlawn Grove and Smedley.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3876 8603 3877 8602 3868 8602 3853 8660
      3869 8661 3869 8631 3873 8631 3874 8629
      3877 8628 3876 8625 3878 8623 3877 8622
      3878 8621 3877 8621 3878 8618 3876 8613
      3877 8610 3878 8610 3878 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 249DEG 27KT 3871 8627 3857 8652

RAS