Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Louisville, KY

944 
WWUS53 KLMK 302155
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
555 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2017

KYC169-302204-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170430T2215Z/
Metcalfe KY-
555 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN METCALFE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3713 8563 3717 8567 3730 8568 3742 8588
      3770 8568 3754 8550 3747 8547 3747 8545
      3723 8534 3711 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 215DEG 48KT 3741 8578 3732 8566 3714 8562 

$$

KYC087-099-123-179-217-302215-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170430T2215Z/
Nelson KY-Larue KY-Green KY-Hart KY-Taylor KY-
555 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM
EDT/515 PM CDT/ FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NELSON...LARUE...GREEN...
NORTHEASTERN HART AND WESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 554 PM EDT/454 PM CDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from 11 miles northeast of Munfordville to 9 miles
northwest of Greensburg to 11 miles north of Edmonton, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Law enforcement. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Hodgenville, Greensburg, Boundary Oak, Lobb, Fry, Romine, Exie,
Pierce, White Rose and Bramlett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

These storms are have a history of producing wind damage across. 
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from 
windows.
 
Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8563 3717 8567 3730 8568 3742 8588
      3770 8568 3754 8550 3747 8547 3747 8545
      3723 8534 3711 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 215DEG 48KT 3741 8578 3732 8566 3714 8562 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...Additional Flash Flooding and Severe Weather Possible This
Afternoon and Evening...

Surface analysis reveals a deep 996mb low near the KS/OK border,
with a warm front draped across northern portions of IL/IN/OH and an
elongated cold front starting in southwestern MO going down into
portions of MS/LA. This leaves our region well within the warm
sector of the low. Radar/satellite reveals a broad area of showers
and clouds across much of the Tennessee/Ohio river valleys. Of
particular note, convection is now starting to develop ahead of an
MCV over western TN/northern AL. This line of showers and storms
will begin to impact the region over the next hour or two.

Confidence regarding the threat of severe weather this afternoon and
evening remains low. While deep layer shear will be supportive of
organized convection, the amount of instability in the atmosphere
looks to be limited. High to mid level clouds associated with
convection west of the region have kept the atmosphere somewhat
stabilized, and SPC mesoanalysis reveals about 1000J/Kg of MUCAPE
across most of central KY. 12z models from earlier this morning were
showing as much as 2000J/Kg to 3000J/Kg of MUCAPE developing by late
afternoon. Still, what is currently present across the region may be
enough to sustain strong to severe storms, especially across
southern portions of the region near the Tennessee border. The main
threats with these storms would be large hail and damaging winds,
though a quick spin-up tornado or two embedded within the line
cannot be ruled out.

Of bigger concern is the flash flooding potential. SPC mesoanalysis
from earlier this afternoon showed an incredible broad axis of 1.8"
PWATs extending from southern IL toward the gulf coast states moving
toward our region. Based on BNA sounding climatology, there have
only been a handful of times where PWATS met or exceeded those
values for the months of April and May. Suffice to say, there is an
abundance of moisture in the atmosphere ahead of this cold front,
and showers/thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are a near certainty.
While the general motion of the front/system will be west to east,
storm motions will generally be off to the north-northeast, which
sets up the potential for training storms. Current flash flood watch
in place still looks good, as most places within the watch have
already received several inches of rain from storms earlier this
weekend and 1hr/3hr flash flood guidance remains low. Flash flood
guidance is a bit higher across southern/central Kentucky, and while
some isolated flooding could occur, do not think it's enough to
warrant a flash flood watch in that region.

The line of showers and storms should clear the region by Monday
morning. A sub-990mb low over WI/MI and 1018mb high over the Gulf of
Mexico will create a strong pressure gradient over the region
resulting in very breezy conditions. Winds near the top of the
boundary layer will be near 45kts during peak heating, suggesting
some strong gusts could mix down to the surface. As a result, a wind
advisory has been issued for tomorrow. With the strong winds and
saturated soils, could also see some isolated reports of trees being
blown down.

Winds will subside some Monday night as boundary layer decouples and
gustier winds remain above the inversion. Overnight lows will be
cool, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Quiet weather is in store for Tuesday as weak high pressure moves
near the region. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer
Tuesday compared to Monday as WAA takes place.

By Wednesday, models develop a trough across the central CONUS and
have it digging into the lower Tennessee Valley during the Thursday-
Friday timeframe. Still some uncertainty exists in the evolution of
the trough, with some models/ensembles showing it becoming a cut-off
low in the Southeastern US, while other models swing the trough axis
up the New England coast. For what it's worth, the latest 12z
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian do not develop a cut-off low and have the system
moving off toward the Northeastern US. Regardless of whatever
solution plays out, it appears that temperatures will be cool
through next weekend, and that wet weather is almost a guarantee
Wednesday through Friday. If a cut-off low develops over the
Southeastern US, the wet weather could extend through the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Complicated forecast this period, with a large upper low pumping a
long line of rains up the MS River and narrow bands of precipitation
arcing out away from it into our area. Have tried to put the focus
in the TAFs on when the main band will move through the region, and
it could bring MVFR to briefly IFR conditions to the terminals as
well as occasional lightning. The other impact will be gusty winds.
As we see some sunshine this afternoon, we should get to near 30
knots for gusts. We may lull some during the banded precip
overnight, but then by mid morning Monday winds will pick up again
from the southwest behind the cold front.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ023>025-030>033.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023-
     024-026>028-061>063-070>076.

&&

Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
321 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

KYZ029-034>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-078-081-082-011930-
Bullitt-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Shepherdsville, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford,
Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
321 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 /221 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT
/7 PM CDT/ MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the region from the
west late this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could
produce damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado could be
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Wind gusts will increase behind a cold front tomorrow afternoon, with
gusts as high as 40mph possible. High profile vehicles may
experience difficult driving conditions on east to west oriented
roadways. Loose outdoor objects may be blown around.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report wind, hail of any size, and instances
of flooding through tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ025-030>033-011930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Meade-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville,
Brandenburg, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, and New Castle
321 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 /221 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT
/7 PM CDT/ MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the region from the
west late this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could
produce damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado could be
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Wind gusts will increase behind a cold front tomorrow afternoon, with
gusts as high as 40mph possible. High profile vehicles may
experience difficult driving conditions on east to west oriented
roadways. Loose outdoor objects may be blown around. In areas with
very saturated soils, trees may topple over from strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report wind, hail of any size, and instances
of flooding through tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ026>028-061>063-070>076-011930-
Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Including the cities of Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown,
Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Russellville, Bowling Green,
Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville,
and Edmonton
321 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 /221 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT
/7 PM CDT/ MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the region from the
west late this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could
produce damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado could be
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Wind gusts will increase behind a cold front tomorrow afternoon, with
gusts as high as 45mph possible. High profile vehicles may
experience difficult driving conditions on east to west oriented
roadways. Loose outdoor objects may be blown around.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report wind, hail of any size, and instances
of flooding through tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ023-024-011930-
Hancock-Breckinridge-
Including the cities of Lewisport, Hawesville, and Hardinsburg
221 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the region from the
west late this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could
produce damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado could be
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Wind gusts will increase behind a cold front tomorrow afternoon, with
gusts as high as 40mph possible. High profile vehicles may
experience difficult driving conditions on east to west oriented
roadways. Loose outdoor objects may be blown around.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report wind, hail of any size, and instances
of flooding through tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
324 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

KYZ071>073-302100-
Warren-Simpson-Allen-
324 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON...
WESTERN ALLEN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES...

At 322 PM CDT, radar indicated severe thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near White House to near Belinda City.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Should these storms maintain there intensity, a severe thunderstorm
warning may be needed. Regardless wind gusts around 50 mph are
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Scottsville, Hardcastle, Allen Springs, West Fork,
Clare, Geddes, Greenhill, Mcelroy Ford and Raley Ford.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3665 8651 3664 8654 3664 8655 3663 8656
      3664 8657 3701 8636 3663 8607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 208DEG 48KT 3648 8660 3622 8646

RJS