Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
717 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

Now seeing two main boundaries on the LVX radar, ready to collide
over the Louisville metro. AMDAR soundings still show a cap at 600
mb, but storms upstream have not been overly affected by this cap.
Once those boundaries collide, expect a new set of storms to
develop. With DCAPEs above 1000 J/kg, expect damaging winds to be
possible out of these new storms. That DCAPE looks reasonable given
how warm we got today and dewpoints having just dropped a little at
SDF. Another potential problem could be some minor flooding in the
Metro, especially should the storms slow down their eastward
progress.

Issued at 425 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

With CAPEs in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and some of these first good-
looking storms dropping down 45-55 mph wind gusts, have coordinated
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with SPC through 3Z. Went with an
eastern edge of Jefferson county IN south to Monroe county KY, where
expect cells to take advantage of trigger of cold pool pushing east
lined up with that CAPE.  Farther east, more isolated stronger
storms are possible, but the more widespread threat is in the watch
box area.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

...Severe Storms & Flash Flooding Possible This Afternoon and
Evening...

Convection continues to fill in along a remnant MCS outflow boundary
from southern Indiana down through western Tennessee. Cumulus field
is expanding quickly in the unstable environment across central KY,
mainly west of I-65 just out ahead of the main convective band. The
second boundary of note is the surface warm front, which has been
making steady northward progress through southern Indiana. It
appears this boundary currently drapes back to the ESE through the
northern Bluegrass Region. Surface winds are SW in Harrison County,
KY, but easterly flow was noted at Covington. A few cells have
developed in the vicinity of this boundary, to the north of
Lexington.

South of the warm front, rain/storm chances will increase from west
to east through the afternoon and evening hours. With the upper low
spinning over the Central Plains, convection will move northeast
into central KY and southern Indiana. Moderate buoyancy has
developed, with 18z SPC meso page indicating 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Effective bulk shear is marginal, with 30-35 kts along convective
boundary in western KY/TN. Stronger mid-level winds will remain off
to the northwest, closer to the upper low. Deep layer shear vectors
oriented roughly parallel to the boundary will support primarily
a linear mode, with damaging winds as the main threat. DCAPE
values exceeded 1000 J/kg across the region also support a
damaging wind threat. Isolated hail is possible, but freezing
levels are much higher today than yesterday, so it will take a
really strong updraft. The bigger risk is likely flash flooding,
particularly in Washington County, Indiana and Allen County,
Kentucky. Any additional heavy rainfall may quickly pose a flash
flood threat, so have a way to receive warnings this evening and
tonight.

Scattered storms early this evening will become more numerous late
this evening and overnight as axis of deeper moisture ahead of
surface cold front advects in. The surface cold front lingers way
back across central Missouri this afternoon and isn't forecast to
push through the area until Sunday afternoon. With convective
activity overnight likely lingering into Sunday morning, and with a
good deal more cloud cover, less instability is expected just ahead
of the cold frontal passage. Favorable vertical shear will lag the
surface cold front as well, so severe weather looks unlikely at this
time. But an uptick in convection looks likely east of I-65 during
the afternoon. Lows tonight will be quite warm, in the mid 60s to
around 70 degrees. Highs on Sunday will make it back into the mid
and upper 70s prior to frontal passage. Showers and storms will exit
to the east Sunday evening, with lows falling into the low to mid
50s by Monday morning.

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

The upcoming work week looks distinctly cooler than the last. Monday
looks very pleasant, with lower humidity, plenty of sun, and highs
in the low to mid 70s. Much drier air advects in as surface high
pressure builds through the region.

Clouds return Monday night, however, with rain chances returning on
Tuesday. The better chance for rain will be late Tuesday into
Tuesday night as another cold front approaches. This is another
surface low that develops in response to a deep upper trough
dropping southeast. This upper low will control the weather for the
midweek period, with cooler temperatures and a good deal of cloud
cover. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will likely be limited to the
mid and upper 60s, with nighttime lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

Weak upper ridging along with surface high pressure should result in
dry weather Thursday night through Friday night. Blended guidance
suggests highs back in the mid 70s to low 80s for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...()
Issued at 715 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

North/south oriented line of storms affecting the SDF/BWG terminals
this hour and may yet make it to LEX late this evening. Have kept a
few more hours of thunder inthe TAFs before we transition to just
showery activity late.  Ceilings are progged to go down as a cold
front approaches Sunday morning, with winds becoming westerly in the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...RJS
Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
608 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

INZ076-083-084-089-KYZ023-026-033>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-061-
065>067-070-077-078-081-082-212215-
Orange-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Hancock-Ohio-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott-Harrison-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Washington-
Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Jasper, English, Tell City,
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hartford, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris,
Carlisle, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Campbellsville,
Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
608 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 /508 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight as a cold
front approaches. Any severe storm could produce heavy rainfall and
damaging winds. There is a low risk for an isolated tornado and
isolated large hail. Ongoing localized flooding issues could be
worsened with additional heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through Sunday afternoon before
the cold front passes through the area. A strong storm with small
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall is possible mainly east
of I-65.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday
and Wednesday as another cold front moves through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to continue reporting any damaging winds,
flooding, or hail today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ077>079-090>092-KYZ024-025-027>032-038-045-053-062>064-071>076-
212215-
Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Breckinridge-Meade-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Spencer-Nelson-Larue-Edmonson-
Hart-Green-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Including the cities of Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Corydon,
New Albany, Jeffersonville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, Taylorsville, Bardstown, Hodgenville, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, and Edmonton
608 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 /508 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight as a cold
front approaches. Any severe storm could produce heavy rainfall and
damaging winds. There is a low risk for an isolated tornado and
isolated large hail. Ongoing localized flooding issues could be
worsened with additional heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through Sunday afternoon before
the cold front passes through the area. A strong storm with small
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall is possible mainly east
of I-65.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday
and Wednesday as another cold front moves through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to continue reporting any damaging winds,
flooding, or hail today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EBW/RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
642 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SELLERSBURG             38.40N 85.75W
05/20/2017                   CLARK              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOCKING A ROADWAY.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             3 N CHARLESTOWN         38.49N 85.67W
05/20/2017  M1.25 INCH       CLARK              IN   COCORAHS

            AVERAGE SIZE NICKELS, BUT HAD MAX SIZE OF
            HALF-DOLLARS.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
655 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

INZ078-079-KYZ032-202330-
Jefferson-Scott-Trimble-
655 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JEFFERSON...EAST CENTRAL SCOTT
AND NORTHWESTERN TRIMBLE COUNTIES...

At 655 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Madison, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Hanover, Saluda, Smyrna, Milton, Brooksburg, Canaan, North
Madison, Manville and Trout.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3869 8520 3870 8522 3873 8525 3874 8527
      3874 8533 3872 8532 3866 8527 3859 8546
      3859 8550 3861 8550 3861 8555 3863 8563
      3891 8539 3891 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 222DEG 34KT 3864 8548

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW WIRT              38.76N 85.46W
05/20/2017  M61 MPH          JEFFERSON          IN   AWOS

            MEASURED AT MADISON AIRPORT.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
729 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

KYZ031-033>035-038>040-045>047-210015-
Oldham-Shelby-Henry-Mercer-Woodford-Franklin-Spencer-Washington-
Nelson-Anderson-
729 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SPENCER...SOUTHEASTERN
OLDHAM...SHELBY...NORTHEASTERN NELSON...NORTHWESTERN MERCER...
NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD...ANDERSON...SOUTHERN HENRY...NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 729 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of La Grange to 8 miles
south of Taylorsville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Shelbyville, Lawrenceburg, New Castle, Taylorsville,
Ballard, Eminence, Simpsonville, Bloomfield and Pleasureville.

LAT...LON 3849 8499 3846 8495 3844 8496 3843 8496
      3843 8494 3846 8493 3846 8492 3845 8491
      3844 8493 3842 8488 3838 8490 3835 8482
      3789 8485 3782 8538 3838 8535 3851 8503
      3852 8500 3852 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 250DEG 30KT 3833 8529 3791 8532

MJ

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