Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
401 AM PST Tue Jan 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Pacific moisture will continue to feed into northern
Nevada through midweek. This will bring more snow to the region
with the heaviest accumulations Today through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...Let the winter weather advisory expire at 4am this
morning.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 206 AM /

SYNOPSIS...Pacific moisture will continue to feed into northern
Nevada through midweek. This will bring more snow to the region
with the heaviest accumulations Today through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Pacific moisture will
continue to feed across northern NV tonight for periods of light
snow. Snow has tapered off to scattered light snow showers with additional
accumulations of less than an inch expected during the day. A
surge of Pacific moisture will move into the region Tonight and
continue through at least Wednesday night. This will produce more
significant snowfall is possible with valleys picking up 4 to 8
inches and 8 to 16 inches in the mountains. Therefore the Winter
Storm Watch for this period will remain in effect. Some
uncertainty on Thursday remains but the models have come into better
agreement with the entire CWA receiving snow with the main push
of moisture lingering over central Nevada. This doesn't change
the forecast drastically but does boost confidence. As with all
fresh snowfall slick roads may result so caution is advised when
traveling.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday. Models agree
generally in beginning on departing short wave Thursday night and
then zonal flow through about Saturday morning. A large closed
upper low in the northeast Pacific will begin to turn the flow to
southwest with moisture flow coming back.

After a break in the moisture Friday...snow begins again most
places in the forecast area, but freezing levels will rise in
central Nevada from the southwest flow. Many valleys will get cold
rains or rain/snow mixed. Even in northern Nevada this should be
the rule through the weekend. Mountains expected to get wet snows,
some possibly heavy at times.

Model differences on the long range make drastic changes unwise.
Will continue to monitor their agreement and changes through the
week.

AVIATION...A steady stream of moisture moving west to east and
generally deepening will overcome most of central, eastern, and
northern Nevada through 12Z Wednesday. KWMC and KEKO will get the
lowest cigs and visby with down to about OVC040 and 5SM. May flirt
with lower values from time to time but this is expected to
prevail. Snow showers off and on through the TAF period at both
sites.

KELY will start to see snow showers Tuesday afternoon and
continue over night.

KTPH will see lowering cigs Tuesday night with showers vicinity.

Mountain obscuration will be common at all sites and en route.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through late Wednesday
night for Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt
Range-South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-
Southwestern Elko County.

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