Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
343 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

SHORT TERM...
Weak frontal boundary located across north LA and central LA with
slightly lower dewpoints along and to the north of the boundary will
continue to dissipate next 24 hours. Scattered thunderstorm
activity that developed south of the boundary across southeast LA
and south MS will diminish into the evening hours...but have
carried slight chance rain chance into the evening period. With
boundary effectively dissipating over the next 24 hours and warm
and unstable airmass in place over region...expect a repeat of
scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms from late morning
through afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. Atmosphere remains
unstable with precipitable water in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range so
typical afternoon thunderstorms development can be expected as
convective temperature in the upper 80s is reach. Near normal
temperature regime is expected.

LONG TERM...
Not a lot of change expected during the latter half of the week.
The mid level high pressure ridge may strengthen slightly across
the region in the Wed through Fri time frame. This may lower
thunderstorm coverage slightly and raise max temperatures a degree
or two...but scattered daily thunderstorms expected. Over the
weekend...the upper level high builds over the western U.S. and
mid level trough deepens over the eastern U.S. The deepening
trough in the east may allow another front to move toward the
region which may provide a focus for an increase in thunderstorm
activity. Temperatures remain in the near normal range.

AVIATION... Main impacts are from thunderstorm activity which
should begin diminishing in coverage in the 00-02Z time frame.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should remain. Expect scattered
thunderstorm activity to again redeveloping Monday in the 16-18Z
time.

MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient from a weak high pressure ridge over the
northern Gulf will result in light winds outside of thunderstorm
activity. Primary direction will be southwest to south early in
the week becoming southeast later in the week.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring Hydro/Convective trends

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  90 /  20  30  20  60
BTR  75  92  74  90 /  20  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  76  91 /  20  40  30  50
MSY  76  91  76  90 /  20  50  30  50
GPT  76  91  77  89 /  30  40  30  40
PQL  74  91  74  90 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-100500-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today with the
main hazards damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. Storms should gradually dissipate after
sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The risk of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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