Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Surface low pressure centered over east Texas this afternoon with
a warm front extending eastward that is approaching Interstate 20.
This puts our entire CWA in the warm sector with temperatures in
the mid 70s to lower 80s and dew points in the mid 60s to lower
70s. Line of thunderstorms ahead of the low extends from near
Shreveport to Houston at 3 pm with scattered strong to severe
storms in advance of that line across the western half of
Louisiana. Some of the storms in that area have been tornadic this
afternoon. No significant precipitation in the CWA at 3 pm, but
thunderstorms are approaching the Atchafalaya River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Main weather issues are in the first 24 hours of the forecast.
Upper low over Texas appears to be about to take on a negative
tilt, which may cause the best divergence to be somewhat north of
earlier expectations. Will still keep Flash Flood Watch in place
with 2-4 inch totals more common than the earlier 3-6 inch totals
mentioned. 18z sounding still showed precipitable water values
around 1.6 inches and likely still increasing with moderate
southerly flow. All modes of severe weather still in play with
Moderate Risk of severe weather north of Interstate 12. Have
trimmed a bit of the wind advisory, mainly over the Baton Rouge
area, but left the rest as is. Coastal Flood Advisory will also
remain in effect.

Timing of main line is crossing Atchafalaya River a little after
midnight and exiting the Mississippi coast by 9 or 10 am. Still
could have scattered severe with supercells in advance of the main
line, so people need to stay weather aware all evening. Should
quickly dry out during the afternoon Monday with dry weather
expected Tuesday. Next shortwave moves through the Middle
Mississippi River Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will
push another front through the area, but with little recovery time
for moisture return, rain chances should be less than with the
current system.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the short term
portion of the forecast with the possible exception of Monday
night/Tuesday morning, which could be a little cooler than the
other two nights. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

High pressure will control the weather across the area for
Thursday through the weekend. No precipitation expected through
that period. Somewhat cooler temperatures expected, with below
normal temperatures expected for Thursday through Friday night,
then warming again. Have used a blend of guidance. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

General MVFR to IFR conditions expected through 18z Monday with
mention of convection across all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

Have left Small Craft Advisories in place. Could see some gusts to
gale force overnight and early tomorrow morning, but not confident
that there will be enough gusts to justify Gale Warning. Mariners
should be prepared for a line of thunderstorms to move through the
coastal waters overnight though. Conditions not likely to ease
until tomorrow evening. Will get back into headline criteria with
next system on Wednesday.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...Orange.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...High Impact and coordinators desk, Ozone and Baton
             Rouge Amateur Radio clubs.
ACTIVITIES...Short fused warnings, EM support

Decision Support Service (DSS) Code Legend:
GREEN  = No weather impacts that require action
BLUE   = Long fused Watch/Warning/Advisory in effect or high
         visibility event
YELLOW = Heightened impacts with short fused
         Watch/Warning/Advisory issuances; Radar support
ORANGE = High Impacts - Slight to Moderate risk of severe weather;
         Nearby tropical events, HAZMAT or other large episodes
RED    = Full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; Direct
         tropical threats; events of national significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  81  57  86 / 100  40  10   0
BTR  68  81  59  85 / 100  20   0   0
ASD  72  83  61  84 /  90  70  10   0
MSY  70  82  63  85 /  90  60  10   0
GPT  74  80  65  81 /  70  90  10   0
PQL  71  83  61  84 /  60 100  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ040-050-058-
     062-064-066>070-072.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for
     LAZ040-059>070.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MSZ068>071-077-
     080.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ080>082.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for
     MSZ080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
352 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAZ034-035-MSZ068-022115-
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-Wilkinson-
352 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WEST FELICIANA...
NORTHWESTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISHES IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WILKINSON COUNTIES...

At 352 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bayou Current,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Adams and Lettsworth.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3087 9180 3098 9180 3104 9172 3104 9165
      3097 9166 3098 9165 3104 9156 3107 9156
      3111 9163 3122 9158 3124 9155 3122 9153
      3123 9149 3126 9148 3128 9150 3128 9148
      3119 9132 3082 9174 3081 9181 3086 9182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 213DEG 47KT 3087 9176

24/RR