Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
346 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure over southwest Arkansas early this afternoon with a
cold front to near Lake Charles. Pre-frontal squall line currently
moving through western half of the CWA. Have gotten several
reports of wind damage with the line. Have cleared a few
counties/parishes behind the line from the Tornado Watch, and
will likely clear another batch right at issuance time. Will also
peel off a few counties/parishes from the Flood Watch at that
time. Temperatures generally in the 70s ahead of the front, in the
60s behind it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Main forecast issue will be in the first 6 hours of the forecast,
getting the convection to the east of the area. Expect most or all
precipitation to be east of the area by midnight, and won't make
any adjustments to expiration time of flood watch. Beyond tonight,
no precipitation expected through Thursday. Drier air will arrive
tomorrow, but any significant cold advection will wait until
tomorrow night and Wednesday to make significant inroads into the
area. Really not a lot of difference in short range temperature
guidance, so have not made significant deviations through
Wednesday night. Thursday will be chilly, with temperatures
struggling to get past the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...

Beyond Thursday, quite a bit of variation in timing between ECMWF
and GFS on next shortwave passage, as well as on temperatures.
ECMWF is about 24 hours quicker and considerably colder than GFS
solution. As was the case on the midnight shift, forecast
confidence in a particular solution is low. Have gone with a
modified blend of models. At this time, GFS solution does not
support mention of wintry precipitation, while ECMWF solution
would support at least graupel or sleet going into the weekend.
Current forecast will keep mention of wintry precipitation out of
forecast, but won't have to get very far north of the area before
it becomes a concern. Hopefully, medium range guidance closes in
on a common solution in the next couple runs. Temperatures
generally below normal through the weekend. Have discounted MEX
high temperature guidance for Saturday at this time, as that is
based on a significant low pressure moving across the area with
portions of the CWA getting into a warm sector briefly.

&&

.AVIATION...

Currently seeing MVFR to VFR conditions outside of convection.
Brief IFR to LIFR conditions with convection as well as G45KT.
While brief clearing is possible this evening, as wind field
collapses behind prefrontal squall line, there will be the
potential for fog and low ceilings overnight with IFR to LIFR
conditions possible. Should see a few hours of VFR conditions
midday on Tuesday before true cold air advection returns low
clouds to the area Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...

Expect gradient to weaken behind squall line this evening, so will
allow SCA to go to SCEC on schedule at 00Z. Some concern that
models may underplay cold advection Wednesday night into Thursday
and will have to monitor in later packages. For now, we match
pretty well with the neighbors. Likely to need headlines Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Enhanced risk of severe weather Today.
            Small Craft Advisory
            Some area rivers have/will reach minor flood stages.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National
         Significance.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  56  73  51  55 /  30  10   0  10
BTR  55  74  51  59 /  20   0   0  10
ASD  59  73  52  61 /  30   0   0  10
MSY  59  74  54  61 /  20   0   0  10
GPT  61  72  53  62 /  30   0   0  10
PQL  60  72  52  63 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for LAZ040-058>065.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for MSZ077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

35

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KENTWOOD                30.93N 90.52W
01/02/2017                   TANGIPAHOA         LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED REPORTED BY
            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
337 PM CST MON JAN 2 2017

LAZ058>070-022330-
Lower St. Bernard-Lower Jefferson-Lower Plaquemines-St.
Charles-Orleans-Lower Terrebonne-Upper Lafourche-Upper
Jefferson-Upper Plaquemines-Lower Lafourche-St. John The
Baptist-Upper Terrebonne-Upper St. Bernard-
337 PM CST MON JAN 2 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAFOURCHE...ST.
CHARLES...ORLEANS...ST. BERNARD...SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...TERREBONNE...PLAQUEMINES AND JEFFERSON PARISHES...

At 336 PM CST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 14 miles north of Metairie to 6 miles
east of Lockport to 33 miles west of Cocodrie. Movement was northeast
at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Houma, Thibodaux, Hahnville, Galliano, Marrero, Belle
Chasse, Metairie, Chalmette, Harvey, Cut Off, Laplace, Avondale, Port
Sulphur, East New Orleans, Timberlane, Larose, Reserve, Jefferson and
Gretna.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2909 9022 2935 9043 2911 9071 2922 9114
      2965 9098 3015 9044 3009 8968 2999 8986
      2986 8968 3008 8948 2989 8924 2929 8964
      2932 8963 2931 8986 2951 8992 2928 8993
      2936 9007 2934 9004 2926 8995 2932 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 247DEG 48KT 3020 9025 2967 9044 2913 9120

24/RR

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