Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
541 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Hurricane Nate continue to move quickly northward towards the
extreme southeast Louisiana delta with landfall expected early
this evening followed by a second landfall on the Mississippi Gulf
coast a bit later this evening. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate as earlier forecast with regards to wind, storm surge,
heavy rain potential and marine conditions, then conditions will
improve in most areas just as quickly later tonight into Sunday
morning. The exception will be near the tidal basins and rivers
along the Mississippi Gulf coast where high water and flooding
from a combination of storm surge and fresh water rainfall runoff
flooding could occur longer into Sunday. The Hurricane Warning
and Tropical Storm Warning areas will likely start to be trimmed
back from south/west to north/east as Nate moves ashore and
inland. The Flash Flood Watch for the Mississippi Gulf coast was
left in effect through 6 pm Sunday, but it may eventually be
cancelled early since the main threat of heavy rainfall is
tonight.

Please refer to the specific information in the Storm Surge
Warning, Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Local
Statement products from our web page for localized impacts for
your area of interest. In addition, there has been a blitz of
valuable and critical safety & impact information put on Twitter
if you follow @NWSNewOrleans. Here is a summary of impacts through
late tonight:

1. Tropical storm force winds expected to continue spreading
north across coastal areas and the tidal lakes through this
evening, then ending from southwest to northeast later tonight and
early Sunday morning.

2. Hurricane force winds are expected/possible near to just east
the center of Nate as hurricane continues to move northward
towards the Mississippi Gulf coast this evening, then winds will
drop off fairly quickly late tonight.

3. Storm surge flooding (inundation/above ground):
Grand Isle, LA to the mouth of the Miss. River...2 to 4 ft;
Mouth of Miss. River to Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft;
Lake Pontchartrain...7 to 11 feet near the Rigolets, 4 to 7 feet rest
of St. Tammany, 3 to 5 feet elsewhere around Lake.

4. Heavy rainfall: 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts
expected across the Mississippi coastal counties, and a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect through 6 pm Sunday. Rainfall totals of 2
to 5 inches are forecast in extreme southeast Louisiana with the
highest amounts near the southeast coastal areas. Moderate
rainfall totals are forecast in the far western areas including
Baton Rouge with generally 1/2 inch expected with locally higher 1
to 3 inch amounts possible.

5. Isolated tornadoes are possible east/northeast of the center,
mainly through this evening.

Conditions will improve fairly quickly from southwest to northeast
through the day on Sunday as Nate quickly moves northeast towards
the southern Appalachians, however lingering higher precipitable
water and southwesterly winds will keep a chance of showers and
some thunderstorms in the forecast Sunday night with fairly high
chances on Monday.

Rain chances lower to slight chance to chance through the remainder
of the week as a weak cold front moves into the region, however the
dry air push remains weak. With that the cold front to cool
things off that we have been watching for still doesn't look like
we will see for at least 7 days. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

Worsening conditions expected at all of the terminals between now
and 00z as Hurricane Nate approaches. Expect to see prevailing IFR
conditions in place at all of the terminals form 00z through 12z
tomorrow. Conditions will gradually improve after 12z as Hurricane
Nate moves inland and pulls out of the area. Hurricane and
tropical storm force winds are most likely to occur from 00z
through 12z at the terminals. 32

&&

.MARINE...

Hurricane conditions will continue to spread from south to north
across the central Gulf coast region this evening near the center
of Hurricane Nate tropical storm conditions extending out a
greater distance mainly on the east/northeast side of the center.
As and after the hurricane makes landfall, conditions will be
improving fairly rapidly from south/southwest to north/northeast
later tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure will then build
into the central Gulf coast region with calmer winds and lower
waves through most of next week. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Red.
Deployed: NOHSEP.
Activation: High Impact and ER Met.
Activities: Hurricane Nate.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  86  74  85 /  90  40  20  70
BTR  76  87  75  88 /  60  30  20  60
ASD  78  85  76  85 / 100  40  30  60
MSY  77  87  77  88 /  90  30  40  60
GPT  79  84  78  84 / 100  60  40  60
PQL  80  83  78  84 / 100  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hurricane Warning for LAZ040-058-060>064-068>070-072.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ039-049-050-056-057-059-065>067-
     071.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-575-
     577.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ550-570.

MS...Hurricane Warning for MSZ080>082.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ077.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MSZ080>082.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-575-
     577.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ570.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
742 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-081400-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
742 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for coastal Mississippi as
well as lower St. Bernard, lower Plaquemines, and lower Jefferson
Parishes in Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
remainder of southeast Louisiana to the east of a Napoleonville to
Livingston to Franklinton line...including New Orleans. A Tropical
Storm Warning is also in effect for Pearl River County in
Mississippi.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal locations of
southeast Louisiana to the east of Grand Isle...including locations
around Lake Pontchartrain. The Storm Surge Warning includes the
Mississippi Coast as well. The Storm Surge Warning does not include
areas protected by the hurricane levee system.

Heavy rain is also possible as Nate moves across the region.
Widespread 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts are
anticipated. The heaviest rain will occur on the east side of Nate
across coastal Mississippi where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

The threat for tornadoes will exist over far southeast
Mississippi...primarily in Jackson county.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Hurricane, Tropical Storm, and Storm Surge Warnings may continue
through Sunday morning before conditions subside as Hurricane Nate
moves inland and away from the region.

For Monday through Friday, the threat of hazardous weather is
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather or flooding should be relayed to the
National Weather Service or local law enforcement.

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