Small Craft Advisory 35, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
403 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Harvey has moved little in the last 24 hours and it
centered southwest of Houston, right along the coast. As expected,
the rain shield from Harvey has spread eastward and extended across
the forecast area. Dual pol precip estimates show generally 1"
totals since this morning but isolated areas indicate up to 4".
Radar trends show a more eastward progression than meso models
indicated this morning, so will be extending the FFA to include all
coastal Mississippi counties with this forecast package. Meso models
depict a drop in precip coverage through the rest of this afternoon
as the current swath in place shifts northeast. It will then be
followed by regeneration of another Harvey banding feature. Rainfall
rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour will be likely at times. Although
the areal coverage of those types of rates shouldn't be too long and
most of those cells should be moving quickly, do have some concern
in training and interactions with the residual frontal boundary
thats draped across the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Flash flood
warnings may be needed at times.

The lack of movement of Harvey through Tuesday means yet another day
of numerous showers and storms can be expected area wide. Kept
things simple and just went 100% CWA-wide. Inches of rain are likely
with the possibility of flash flooding at times. Thus FFA in will
remain in effect.

Wednesday is the first day that models begin to show some appreciable
northern movement of Harvey as a stronger trough dips out of Canada
into the Great Lakes. Overall coverage may fall some but still
expecting quite a bit of activity. The same goes for Thursday and
Friday as guidance suggests Harvey will eject northeast as its
absorbed by that trough. Storm totals of 5 to 10 inches with locally
higher amounts look to be possible through this event.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

All terminals will be impacted by showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms this afternoon. After a brief period of decreased
convection this evening, a second round of numerous showers and
storms will be possible during the late night/early morning period.
IFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible along with gusts up to 30-
35kt

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Forecasting winds and seas over the coastal waters is slightly more
challenging than normal due to the combination of gradient and
Harvey band influences. Gradient winds "should" be 10 to 15 knots
for most with around 20kts. Banding features appear to be adding 5
to 10 knots at times with down bursts up to 20 knots above that.
Based on that, decided to put a Small Craft Advisory out for
offshore waters west of the Mississippi River and exercise caution
for the rest of the coastal waters. Similar conditions are likely to
continue through Wednesday as Harvey moves relatively little from
now until then. Late week through the weekend, Harvey will eject
northeast which will relax the gradient enough to drop marine
hazards.

MEFFER
&&

DSS Code...Blue.
Deployed...None.
Activation...None.
Activities...Monitoring Harvey and associated rainfall.
             Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday for parishes
             along the Atchafalaya River.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  78  73  81 /  70 100  80  80
BTR  72  81  75  83 /  90 100  80  80
ASD  74  83  76  84 /  70 100  80  80
MSY  76  85  77  84 / 100 100  80  80
GPT  75  82  78  84 /  60 100  90  80
PQL  74  84  76  85 /  50 100  80  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ550-552-570-
     572.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ552-570-572.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
207 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

LAZ062-281930-
Orleans-
207 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH...

At 207 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near East New
Orleans, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, East New Orleans and Lakefront Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

LAT...LON 3001 9004 3005 9003 3004 9003 3004 9001
      3006 8996 3015 8987 3015 8985 3013 8986
      3011 8985 3010 8982 3010 8979 3014 8976
      3013 8974 3000 8990 2998 8994 2999 8997
      2998 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 208DEG 10KT 3004 8998

MJH