Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
409 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

.Discussion...
Showers and a few strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
across the forecast area north of Lake Pontchartrain. The main
threats with these storms this evening will be large hail and
strong winds. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. These storms
are moving into more stable air and losing daylight soon and that
should help weaken these storms through the evening hours. The
cold front should move through the area and winds will shift out
of the northwest. Strong wrap around will keep conditions cloudy
with a few areas of sprinkling rain showers from time to time
through much of the day Saturday. Conditions should improve by
Sunday as skies are expected to clear. High pressure builds in for
the remainder of the forecast period honestly. Temps going into
next week will be in the 80s with not much of a rain chance
through the week. A return draw from the gulf should begin by
Tuesday with moisture values increasing through the week along
with warming temps. A northern stream system moves across the
country Wednesday with a weak front trying to push into the area
but strong high pressure keeps the area dry. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Another round of thunderstorms continues to develop along a Baton
Rouge to McComb line in response to surface heating and upper level
low centered over southwest AR. Ceilings 3,000 to 4,500 feet and
visibility 10 miles except in vicinity of thunderstorms where
ceilings are below 1,000 feet and visibility 1 to 3 miles.
Thunderstorms will continue to develop and move east threatening New
Orleans airports and coastal MS airports until about 03z.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push through the coastal waters tonight.
Gradient winds will remain elevated ahead of the front and
exercise caution will remain in effect through the evening.
Once the cold front passes, winds will shift to a northwest
direction and actually ease a bit to 10-15kt and gradually back
into a rather weak regime by Sunday. High pressure settles over
the north central gulf Sunday into the start of the new work week
and gradually moves east.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring severe weather.
 	        River flood warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  77  57  84 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  62  77  60  85 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  64  80  61  84 /  30  10   0   0
MSY  65  80  65  83 /  30  10   0   0
GPT  65  81  64  82 /  40  10   0   0
PQL  64  82  60  84 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
955 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-130300-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
955 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue
moving east across south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana
through the early afternoon hours. The main threats will be
damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes and hail. Locally heavy
rainfall is also expected which may produce ponding of water in
low lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is anticipated Saturday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested today.

TD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             LIVINGSTON              30.50N 90.75W
05/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       LIVINGSTON         LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 45 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

24/RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2017

LAZ036-037-MSZ069-122145-
St. Helena-East Feliciana-Amite-
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ST. HELENA...
NORTHEASTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTIES...

At 340 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Felps, or 10
miles northeast of Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gillsberg, Easleyville and Felps.

LAT...LON 3087 9057 3091 9104 3105 9089 3123 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 272DEG 25KT 3096 9088

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2017

LAZ058>060-122115-
St. Charles-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. CHARLES AND NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISHES...

At 342 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
South Vacherie, or 11 miles southwest of Hahnville, moving east at 25
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hahnville, Paradis, Des Allemands, Luling, Boutte, Ama, Bayou Gauche,
Destrehan, Taft, New Sarpy, St. Rose, Norco, Killona and South
Vacherie.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2979 9067 2989 9067 2989 9066 2991 9067
      2997 9067 3000 9028 2994 9027 2973 9028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 271DEG 21KT 2988 9059

24/RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N WALKER              30.53N 90.87W
05/12/2017                   LIVINGSTON         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FIRST RESPONDERS REPORTING TO DAMAGE NEAR ARNOLD RD.

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE WALKER            30.52N 90.85W
05/12/2017                   LIVINGSTON         LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE REPORTED NEAR INTERSECTION OF 449 AND COURTNEY.

0350 PM     HAIL             3 W HAMMOND             30.51N 90.51W
05/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       TANGIPAHOA         LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

             INCH IN DIAMETER HAIL BETWEEN ALBANY AND HAMMOND.

&&

CBANNAN

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