River Flood Warning 9, NWS New Orleans, LA

889 
WGUS44 KLIX 220212 CCA
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
733 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...The National Weather Service in New Orleans Baton Rouge has issued
a flood warning for the following rivers in Louisiana... 

  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish
  
Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-230733-
/O.COR.KLIX.FL.W.0009.170122T2000Z-170124T1200Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.170122T2000Z.170123T0600Z.170124T0600Z.NO/
733 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* From Sunday afternoon to Tuesday morning.
* At  7:15 PM Saturday the stage was 9.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 11.5 feet by early Monday morning.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995

$$

566 
WGUS84 KLIX 221554
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
954 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany PARISH 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-232154-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0009.170123T0200Z-170125T0600Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.170123T0200Z.170124T0000Z.170125T0000Z.NO/
954 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* At  9:15 AM Sunday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 11.5 feet by tomorrow evening.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995


$$

24/RR

650 
WGUS84 KLIX 230216
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
816 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-240816-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170125T0600Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.170123T0406Z.170123T1800Z.170125T0000Z.NO/
816 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* At 7:15 PM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by late 
  tonight and then continue rising until cresting at around 11.5 feet 
  by tomorrow early afternoon. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage by Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995



$$

189 
WGUS84 KLIX 231808
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1208 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-250008-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170125T0600Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170123T1715Z.170125T0000Z.NO/
1208 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* At 11:15 AM Monday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995



$$

743 
WGUS84 KLIX 231855
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1255 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany PARISH 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-250055-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170126T1200Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170124T1200Z.170126T0600Z.NO/
1255 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* At 12:15 PM Monday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 12.1 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995



$$

569 
WGUS84 KLIX 240105
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
705 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-250705-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170126T1200Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170124T1200Z.170126T0600Z.NO/
705 PM CST MON JAN 23 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* At 5:15 PM Monday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting 
  at around 12.2 feet by Tuesday morning. The river is expected to 
  fall below flood stage by late Wednesday night.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995



$$

163 
WGUS84 KLIX 241554
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
954 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish 
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Bogalusa affecting St. Tammany...Washington...
  Hancock AND Pearl River Counties/Parishes 

  Pearl River Near Pearl River affecting St. Tammany...Hancock AND 
  Pearl River Counties/Parishes 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-252154-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170126T0000Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170124T0930Z.170125T1800Z.NO/
954 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* Until Wednesday Evening.
* At  9:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995



$$

LAC103-117-MSC045-109-252154-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BXAL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170125T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Bogalusa.
* Until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Woodlands and crop acreage along the river 
  will be flooded. The Bogue Chitto Wildlife Management area will be 
  inundated with water in recreational camps and over access roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8969 3100 8979 3067 8990 3067 8976




$$

LAC103-MSC045-109-252154-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PERL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170126T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
954 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Pearl River.
* Until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.0 feet by 
  tomorrow evening then begin gradually falling.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Lower portions of streets in River Gardens 
  Subdivision will begin to flood. Secondary roads to the river and 
  throughout Honey Island Swamp will remain inundated. Property in 
  the vicinity of the gage is flooded threatening about 20 homes 
  along the left bank. The Bogue Chitto National Wildlife Refuge will
  be closed to hunting at the 15.5 foot stage.
* Impact...At 15.5 feet...Secondary roads to the river and throughout 
  Honey Island Swamp are inundated. Property in the vicinity of the 
  gage is flooded threatening about 20 homes along the left bank. The
  Bogue Chitto National Wildlife Refuge will be closed to hunting at 
  the 15.5 foot stage.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Secondary roads to the river and throughout 
  Honey Island Swamp are inundated. Property in the vicinity of the 
  gage is flooded threatening about 20 homes along the left bank.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8976 3067 8990 3018 8964 3020 8955




$$

331 
WGUS84 KLIX 250234
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
834 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...Mississippi...

  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish 

  Pearl River Near Bogalusa affecting St. Tammany...Washington...
  Hancock AND Pearl River Counties/Parishes 

  Pearl River Near Pearl River affecting St. Tammany...Hancock AND 
  Pearl River Counties/Parishes 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-260000-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170126T0000Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170124T0930Z.170125T1800Z.NO/
834 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* Until Wednesday Evening.
* At  8:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995

$$

LAC103-117-MSC045-109-260833-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BXAL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170125T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
834 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Bogalusa.
* Until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Woodlands and crop acreage along the river 
  will be flooded. The Bogue Chitto Wildlife Management area will be 
  inundated with water in recreational camps and over access roads.
* Impact...At 18.5 feet...Woodlands and crop acreage along the river 
  will be flooded. The Bogue Chitto Wildlife Management area will be 
  inundated with water in recreational camps and over access roads.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Woodlands and crop acreage along the river 
  will be flooded.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Woodlands along the river and wildlife 
  management property will be flooded

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8969 3100 8979 3067 8990 3067 8976

$$

LAC103-MSC045-109-260833-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PERL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170126T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
834 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Pearl River.
* Until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.0 feet by 
  tomorrow evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Lower portions of streets in River Gardens 
  Subdivision will begin to flood. Secondary roads to the river and 
  throughout Honey Island Swamp will remain inundated. Property in 
  the vicinity of the gage is flooded threatening about 20 homes 
  along the left bank. The Bogue Chitto National Wildlife Refuge will
  be closed to hunting at the 15.5 foot stage.
* Impact...At 15.5 feet...Secondary roads to the river and throughout 
  Honey Island Swamp are inundated. Property in the vicinity of the 
  gage is flooded threatening about 20 homes along the left bank. The
  Bogue Chitto National Wildlife Refuge will be closed to hunting at 
  the 15.5 foot stage.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Secondary roads to the river and throughout 
  Honey Island Swamp are inundated. Property in the vicinity of the 
  gage is flooded threatening about 20 homes along the left bank.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...The east and west channels of the river will
  begin to merge. Honey Island Swamp trails will be under water as 
  inundation of the swamp begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8976 3067 8990 3018 8964 3020 8955

$$

044 
WGUS84 KLIX 252035
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
235 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish
Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

&&

LAC103-252105-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170126T0000Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170124T0930Z.170125T1852Z.NO/
235 PM CST WED JAN 25 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* At  2:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 12:52 PM Wednesday.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 10.6 feet by tomorrow
  morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9012 3081 9018 3062 8999 3058 8986 3053 8982 3053 8978
3063 8983 3067 8995



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
712 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

00Z sounding terminated over Jackson County Mississippi near Wade
at a height of 97,600 feet or 18.5 miles above the surface. The
balloon made a rather rapid ascent to 400 mb as it got caught in
an updraft ahead of thunderstorms moving over Lake Pontchartrain.

There was a surface inversion, about 1000 feet deep, at launch.
Above that inversion, the sounding was rather unstable with CAPE
values around 2500 j/kg and lifted indices around -10. Lapse rates
above the inversion were in the 7.2-7.5 C/km range. Surface to 6
km shear was 95 knots, and surface to 1 km helicities were near
300 m2/s2. Several cells at launch were displaying rotation, and a
funnel cloud was reported by the weather observer at New Orleans
International at the time of the launch. Wet bulb zero levels were
at 10,500 feet, freezing level at 11,800 feet and -20C level at
22,000 feet.

Light east winds at launch became southeast at 1000 feet, then
southwest at 25 knots around 3000 feet. Winds remained southwest
to west for the remainder of the flight, increasing to around 80
knots at 500 mb, and 100 knots at 450 mb. The max wind was 125
knots just below 300 mb, at 30,000 feet.  35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...

Water vapor imagery indicates a very strong jet streak is about
to punch into Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi this evening.
Enhanced forcing associated with this system should provide enough
lift to overcome a more stable layer noted below 800mb in the 18z
sounding. Above this stable layer very steep lapse rates on the
order of 8.0C/km are in place. Thus, any convection that breaks
through the elevated inversion will rapidly deepen and likely turn
severe in short order. The combination of strong low level wind
shear as noted by 0-3km shear of 50 knots will allow any updrafts
to tilt which will help maintain storm intensity as they race
northeastward across the CWA. Low wet bulb zero heights of around
7900 feet along with the steep lapse rates in the favored hail
generation zone are supportive of a threat for large hail in any
severe storms that develop. Strong damaging wind gusts over 50
knots will also be quite possible given the dry mid-level airmass
in place. Helicity values are marginal, but will support the
development of rotating updrafts. Thus, some supercell
thunderstorms could develop which will further support hail
development and also allow for the possibility of isolated
tornadoes. The primary threat for the severe storms would
generally be before midnight when the greatest forcing and wind
shear is in place.

The mesoscale model guidance indicates that a third and final
round of convection will develop late tonight and early tomorrow
morning. With the cold pool aloft in place, hail will be the
primary concern with any thunderstorms that form. Have kept in
fairly high POP of 50 to 60 percent for areas north of the I-12
corridor and lower POP of 20 to 40 percent for areas of southeast
Louisiana below I-10 and across coastal Mississippi. This final
band of convection should clear the area by mid-morning tomorrow
as the parent upper level trough axis pushes through the region.

The trough should begin to pull east tomorrow night resulting in
deep layer northwest flow, increasing subsidence, dry air
advection. Some weak cold air advection will also take place, but
temperatures should only cool back to more normal levels for mid-
January by Monday. Overall, clear skies, fairly normal
temperatures, and low humidity are expected for Monday and
Tuesday.

LONG TERM...

As the high shifts to the east on Wednesday, another frontal
boundary will slide in from the northwest. This front will pass
through the area on Wednesday bringing increased cloud cover and
scattered rain showers with it. Rain chances are generally
expected to be in the 30 to 40 percent range Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm on the back of southerly
flow in advance of the front with highs rising back into the lower
70s. There could also be a period of advection fog affecting the
area Tuesday night as the temperature spread between the dewpoint
and sea surface temperatures narrows. Temperatures in the wake of
the front will cool back into the 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday
night negating the fog threat.

Some lingering isentropically forced clouds and showers could
impact parts of the CWA on Thursday, but overall a clearing and
drying trend is expected as high pressure builds back in from the
north. A much stronger surge of cold air advection will also take
place with highs on Thursday only rising to around 60 degrees.
Clear skies and cool conditions are expected on Friday with highs
in the upper 50s and lows cooling into the 30s and lower 40s.
A secondary front is then expected to slip through on Saturday.
This system will have little moisture to work with and don't
expect to see much more than an increase in cloud cover as it
moves through. However, another push of colder air should follow
this front into the area. This will help reinforce cooler than
average highs in the middle to upper 50s for the weekend.

AVIATION...

Still anticipating initiation of convection between 20-21Z and
increasing in coverage from SW to NE through about 22/03Z. General
cell motions should be NE around 25kt. Hail potential is better than
average and GR included as a TEMPO for 2-3 hr window for those
locations with the better chances of occurring. Otherwise, MVFR
convective cloud bases around 2500 ft to prevail most locations
outside convection. Winds will become more westerly in time and
increase in strength with frequent gusts as cooler and drier air
moves into the area Sunday, with a potential for LLWS conditions at
a few more exposed locations early Sunday. 24/RR

MARINE...

As a strong low pressure system pushes through the area tomorrow,
very strong westerly winds are expected to develop across the
coastal waters. A Gale Warning has been posted for most of the
area with only the tidal lakes and Mississippi sound expected to
remain in advisory levels tomorrow and tomorrow night. Wind gusts
of over 50 knots may occur in the open Gulf waters during the peak
of the gale. Seas could also approach 30 feet in the outer waters
due to these winds. Conditions will begin to ease on Monday as
high pressure settles in and the pressure gradient relaxes. Expect
to see continued SCA conditions in the Gulf waters Monday, but
rather benign conditions of 10 knots or less are forecast to be
in place by late Monday night. Seas will also fall off as the
winds decrease with seas of only 3 to 5 feet expected by daybreak
Tuesday. Another frontal boundary will approach on Wednesday and
expect to see winds increase to 20 to 25 knots Wednesday nights as
colder and drier air moves in. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: YELLOW
Deployed: None.
Activation: High Impact Desk, Spotter Network
Activities: Severe weather potential. Gale Warning.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  67  43  63 /  60  30  20   0
BTR  57  68  44  66 /  60  20  10   0
ASD  60  70  45  64 /  50  20  10   0
MSY  60  71  49  63 /  40  10  10   0
GPT  61  70  47  64 /  60  40  10   0
PQL  61  70  46  65 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ530-532-534.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ532-534.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
550 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-221400-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
550 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS TO GOLF
BALLS IN DIAMETER. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED FOR THIS EVENING.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
635 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

LAZ039-040-MSZ077-220100-
Washington LA-St. Tammany LA-Pearl River MS-
635 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 635 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Madisonville, or near Covington, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Covington, Abita Springs, Madisonville, Sun and Bush.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3060 8972 3037 9011 3038 9019 3039 9019
      3039 9024 3045 9024 3072 9007
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 228DEG 42KT 3044 9020

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             GAUTIER                 30.39N 88.64W
01/21/2017  E0.88 INCH       JACKSON            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PGRIGSBY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
654 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

MSZ081-082-220130-
Jackson MS-Harrison MS-
654 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 654 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saucier, or 13 miles northwest of Biloxi, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saucier and Lyman.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southern and
southeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3050 8910 3061 8918 3068 8909 3068 8889
      3074 8888 3073 8862
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 231DEG 50KT 3059 8905

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
704 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             MOSS POINT              30.43N 88.53W
01/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PGRIGSBY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
707 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

LAZ040-MSZ077-220145-
St. Tammany LA-Pearl River MS-
707 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 706 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sun, or 9 miles south of Bogalusa, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Poplarville, Sun, Crossroads, Mcneil and Bush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3100 8948 3098 8947 3098 8943 3101 8942
      3101 8935 3100 8934 3082 8934 3055 8987
      3065 8993 3067 8991 3067 8984 3072 8984
      3072 8983 3073 8984 3102 8952
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 231DEG 37KT 3065 8983

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
730 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

LAZ036-037-048-220200-
East Feliciana LA-St. Helena LA-East Baton Rouge LA-
730 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST. HELENA...NORTH
CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE AND SOUTHERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES UNTIL
800 PM CST...

At 729 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Slaughter, or near Zachary, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zachary, Clinton, Greensburg, Slaughter, Pride, Easleyville and
Darlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3088 9057 3083 9057 3062 9114 3074 9123
      3100 9081 3100 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 238DEG 49KT 3071 9110