River Flood Warning 76, NWS New Orleans, LA

790 
WGUS84 KLIX 251413
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
913 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

...The flood warning has been cancelled for the following river in 
Mississippi...
 
Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown affecting Pike and Walthall 
Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC113-147-251443-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-170727T1048Z/
/TYTM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

The Flood Warning has been cancelled for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown.
* At 8:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage.  No flooding 
  is expected in the near future.


&&

LAT...LON 3120 9018 3120 9033 3112 9028 3113 9015




$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
802 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Radar indicated most of the showers have dissipated with the
exception being near a portion of the southeast Louisiana coast and
coastal waters. Updated the tonight portion of the forecast to
account for these trends, and most locations should remain dry this
evening. There remains a moisture gradient across the forecast area
with the deeper moisture over the northern and eastern portions of
the forecast area. This deeper moisture area will also interact with
a mid level shortwave trough that sweep through the region later
tonight and Tuesday morning. This should lead to redevelopment of
scattered convection towards or shortly after midnight and
continuing into at least Tuesday morning. A few of the thunderstorms
could once again produce torrential downpours, possibly repeating
over some areas like late last night and today leading to localized
flash flooding. The flash flood watch will remain in effect for
areas north of metro Baton Rouge to north of Lake Pontchartrain, and
across south Mississippi. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

Conditions have become prevailing VFR with the SHRA/TSRA having
dissipated. Conditions remain favorable for redevelopment of
SHRA/TSRA mainly at or after 06Z to possibly impact KMCB, KGPT,
KBXA and KPQL. Away from convection, some periodic lower CIGS
and BR could result in MVFR conditions towards 12z. Any MVFR early
Tuesday morning should improve back to VFR by 15z or so and remain
so through the day with the exception being during isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA. 22/TD

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Some significant changes in the atmosphere since the 12z sounding
mainly due to a surge of drier air advecting into the mid-levels.
This drier air has resulted in a much larger T/Td spread below
500mb, and warmer mid-level temperatures. This warming has
resulted in less instability in the atmosphere as lapse rates
weaken in the mid-levels. This is most noted by the drop in 0-3km
lapse rates below 6.0C/km, and mixed layer CAPE falling to 855
J/KG. The warming of the mid-levels is also noted by the increase
in freezing levels from 15,400 feet to 16,200 feet from 12z to
00z. The drier air has also reduced atmospheric moisture content
as noted by precipitable water values dropping a third of an inch
sand mean mixing ratios falling by 1.5 g/kg since the 12z
sounding. Overall, all of these parameters point to a more stable
atmosphere developing between the morning and evening soundings.
32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  88  72  92 /  50  50  10  10
BTR  74  91  74  93 /  20  30  10  10
ASD  76  92  76  93 /  30  50  10  20
MSY  77  91  77  92 /  20  40  10  10
GPT  77  90  76  91 /  40  60  20  20
PQL  75  89  75  92 /  50  70  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for LAZ035>037-039-040-
     071-072.

GM...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
542 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-251045-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
542 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
later tonight, mainly north of metropolitan Baton Rouge, north of
Lake Pontchartrain and across south Mississippi where a flash
flood watch remains in effect. Rainfall may become heavy at times
and possibly lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a continued chance of thunderstorms each day Tuesday
through Saturday. More numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
with locally heavy rainfall, are expected on Tuesday for areas
north of metropolitan Baton Rouge, north of the tidal lakes and
across south Mississippi where a flash flood watch is in effect
through 7 pm Tuesday. A few storms each day could also become
strong and produce frequent lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however any reports of
flooding should be promptly reported to the National Weather
Service office in Slidell, LA.

TD