Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2017

River Flood Warning 62, NWS New Orleans, LA

June 20, 2017Harrison County, Mississippi

NWS New Orleans, LA issued this river flood warning at Jun 20, 2017, 10:34 AM CDT for Harrison County, Mississippi. It took effect at Jun 21, 2017, 10:09 AM CDT. It was in force for 61 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2017, 10:34 AM CDT (15:34 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 21, 2017, 10:09 AM CDT
Expired
Jun 23, 2017, 11:13 PM CDT
In force
61 hr
Issued by
NWS New Orleans, LA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Harrison County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Tchoutacabouffa River near D Iberville (DIBM6).

Action stage
8 ft
Minor stage
8 ft
Moderate stage
15 ft
Major stage
18 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02480590, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

497 
WGUS44 KLIX 201534
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
1034 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...The National Weather Service in New Orleans Baton Rouge has issued
a flood warning for the following rivers in Mississippi... 

  Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 48 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-212134-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0062.170622T0121Z-170624T0312Z/
/DIBM6.1.ER.170622T0121Z.170623T0000Z.170623T2112Z.NO/
1034 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* from Wednesday evening to Friday evening.
* At 9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 3.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by tomorrow 
  evening and continue to rise to near 14.0 feet by Thursday evening.  
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated.  The water 
  level will be at the under carriuage of the bridge.  Strong 
  currents will flow across the bridge approaches.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889

$$
10 follow-up statements
041 
WGUS44 KLIX 210230
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
930 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Nonflood Severity for the 
following rivers in Mississippi...

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Mississippi...

The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-220830-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0062.170622T0224Z-170624T0600Z/
/DIBM6.2.ER.170622T0224Z.170623T0000Z.170624T0000Z.NO/
930 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* from Wednesday evening to late Friday night.
* At 8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 2.2 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  tomorrow late evening and then continue to rise until cresting at 
  around 15.0 feet by Thursday evening. The river is expected  
  to fall below flood stage by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated.  The water 
  level will be at the under carriuage of the bridge.  Strong 
  currents will flow across the bridge approaches.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889






$$
416 
WGUS44 KLIX 210250
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
950 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following river in Mississippi...

The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-220850-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0062.170622T0224Z-170624T0600Z/
/DIBM6.2.ER.170622T0224Z.170623T0000Z.170624T0000Z.NO/
950 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* from Wednesday evening to late Friday night.
* At 8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 2.2 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  tomorrow late evening and then continue to rise until cresting at 
  around 15.0 feet by Thursday evening. The river is expected  
  to fall below flood stage by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated.  The water 
  level will be at the under carriuage of the bridge.  Strong 
  currents will flow across the bridge approaches.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889



$$
806 
WGUS84 KLIX 210723
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
223 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-221323-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0062.170621T1712Z-170624T0800Z/
/DIBM6.2.ER.170621T1712Z.170622T1800Z.170624T0200Z.NO/
223 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* from this afternoon to late Friday night.
* At  1:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 4.9 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 15.0 feet by Thursday early afternoon. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Friday before midnight.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated.  The water 
  level will be at the under carriuage of the bridge.  Strong 
  currents will flow across the bridge approaches.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.


&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889






$$
551 
WGUS84 KLIX 211510
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
1010 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 48 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-222110-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0062.170621T1509Z-170623T1700Z/
/DIBM6.2.ER.170621T1410Z.170622T1200Z.170623T1100Z.NO/
1010 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* from this morning to Friday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.0 feet by 
  Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated.  The water 
  level will be at the under carriuage of the bridge.  Strong 
  currents will flow across the bridge approaches.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.


&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889






$$
711 
WGUS84 KLIX 220256
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
956 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-230856-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170623T1700Z/
/DIBM6.2.ER.170621T1410Z.170622T1200Z.170623T1100Z.NO/
956 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting
  at around 15.0 feet by tomorrow morning. The river is expected to 
  fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated.  The water 
  level will be at the under carriuage of the bridge.  Strong 
  currents will flow across the bridge approaches.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.


&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889




$$
314 
WGUS84 KLIX 221647
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
1147 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-232247-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170624T1030Z/
/DIBM6.1.ER.170621T1410Z.170623T0000Z.170624T0430Z.NO/
1147 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* until late Friday night.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 12.5 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  evening.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Lamey Bridge will be closed and Lamey Bridge 
  Road will be impassable from Mason Blvd to Johnson Still Road.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated. The water 
  level will be at the under carriage of the bridge. Strong 
  currents will flow across the bridge approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889






$$
024 
WGUS84 KLIX 230204
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
904 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-240804-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170624T1424Z/
/DIBM6.1.ER.170621T1410Z.170623T0115Z.170624T0824Z.NO/
904 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Thursday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Lamey Bridge will be closed and Lamey Bridge
  Road will be impassable from Mason Blvd to Johnson Still Road.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated.  The water 
  level will be at the under carriage of the bridge.  Strong currents
  will flow across the bridge approaches.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889

$$
437 
WGUS84 KLIX 231603
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
1103 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-241330-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170624T1330Z/
/DIBM6.1.ER.170621T1410Z.170623T0115Z.170624T0730Z.NO/
1103 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* until Saturday morning.
* At 10:30 AM Friday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by late tonight.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Recreational camps will be inaccessable.  
  Property along Lamey Bridge Road will be inundated.  The water 
  level will be at the under carriage of the bridge.  Strong currents
  will flow across the bridge approaches.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.


&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889



$$
093 
WGUS84 KLIX 240117
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
817 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-241120-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170624T1120Z/
/DIBM6.1.ER.170621T1410Z.170623T0115Z.170624T0520Z.NO/
817 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  7:30 PM Friday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889






$$
575 
WGUS84 KLIX 240413
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
1113 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-240443-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170624T1120Z/
/DIBM6.1.ER.170621T1410Z.170623T0115Z.170624T0216Z.NO/
1113 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* At 10:30 PM Friday the stage was 7.5 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  9:16 PM Friday.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.8 feet by Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889






$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jun 20, 9:55 AM CDT, 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 20, 9:55 AM CDT, 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
955 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning represents the tropical airmass over
the central Gulf Coast. Precipitable water is up to 2.3 inches,
which is at the record for this time of year. Very efficient
rainfall will be produced within rain bands the next couple days.
Low level easterly flow is up to 25 kts. Winds then become
southerly above 300 mb at more than 50 kts, which is indicative of
the wind shear aloft impacting the potential tropical cyclone.
Winds will become more east southeast by late this afternoon and
introduce the waterspout/tropical tornadic potential, mainly near
coastal areas.

Krautmann

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

SHORT TERM...
More cosmetic updates to sensible weather effects from what is
Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. Regardless of what this system is
dubbed, impacts will still be observed and these will be
discussed here. Rainfall, coastal flooding, windy conditions, waterspout/tornadic
activity pretty much sets the stage for impacts to the area over
the next few days. We are moving into a fairly wet pattern for the
next several days as well. This system is just the onset of this
wet pattern.

Still looking for rainall tallies in the area of 4 to 8 inches
area wide with a few pockets of 10+ inches possible in mainly
convective bursts through Thursday. WPC has set a portion of the
area in a moderate risk of flooding rainfall potential today and
again Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Coastal flooding will also be an issue outside well established levee
systems. A coastal flood advisory will be issued with this pack
for all areas outside the tropical storm warning areas. This
includes all coastal areas along Lake
Maurepas/Pontchartrain/Borgne and the Mississippi Sound. Tide
levels are expected to be in the 1 to 2 foot range above normal
today and 2 to 3 foot range by Wednesday and Thursday. Inundation
of lowest lying areas normally affected by coastal flooding will
begin around daylight this morning through early afternoon and
should be minor. Somewhat higher indundation levels will begin to
be observed around midnight tonight reaching a peak around noon
Wednesday before falling by mid to late afternoon. Thursday looks
like a repeat of Wednesday.

Obviously windy conditions will exist especially at onset and
during times of sh/ts for the next few days. Wind speeds will be
stronger at coastal locations but will still be gusty inland as
well. Strongest speeds should be 20 to 30 mph at the coast with
higher gusts during sh/ts. Inland speeds should be on the order of
around 15 mph with higher gusts during sh/ts.

Waterspout activity will be a definite and with the onshore
component of storm motion, some of these may move inland. There is
also the potential of tropical tornadic activity with the
strongest convective bursts as well as single cellular acticity
associated with this system. SPC has outlooked a large portion of
the area with marginal risk today, slight risk Wednesday and a
marginal risk again on Thursday for this potential.

LONG TERM...
As we move toward the end of the week, the forecast will be very
dependant on where this system moves. At the moment it is expected
to move inland over the northwest gulf coast. As the system gets
picked up by the synoptic trough moving through the country at
that time, a surface trough axis should be forced southward into
the area by Sunday or Sunday night and become stationary while
weakening. This will provide a continued focus for sh/ts to form
daily along and south of the boundary into the middle of next
week.

AVIATION...

Impacts from the developing tropical system offshore will begin to
spread inland. Expect to see a shield of moderate rainfall
overspread terminals closer to the coast such as KGPT, KASD, KHDC,
KNEW, KMSY, and KNEW between 12z and 15z and then remain in place
through the remainder of the period. Ceilings will also gradually
drop through the day, and expect to see prevailing MVFR ceilings and
periods of IFR and MVFR visibility restrictions from 15z onward. At
KMCB and KBTR, overall rain chances are lower and have VCSH wording
to reflect the risk from 15z onward. Ceilings will also drop at
these terminals with MVFR ceilings in place by late afternoon and
evening. Winds will also increase through the period, and expect to
see prevailing east-northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots at the
terminals nearest the Louisiana coast such as KNEW, KMSY, and KHUM
by 15z. 32

MARINE...

An extended period of very rough conditions is expected to impact
the coastal waters as a potential tropical storm moves south and
west of the waters through tomorrow night and makdes landfall near
the Texas and Louisiana border on Thursday.  Winds will initially be
in a east-southeast direction, but should shift to a more southerly
direction by Thursday as the low pressure system moves inland.  A
mix of small craft advisory and tropical storm force winds and seas
are expected through Wednesday night.  For Thursday and Thursday
night, a lingering strong pressure gradient across the Gulf of
Mexico will keep small craft advisory conditions in place as winds
remain near 25 knots. The pressure gradient should gradually ease
through the weekend from exercise caution winds of 15 to 20 knots on
Friday down to around 10 knots by Sunday.  Seas will also gradually
decrease through this period. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...Orange.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...Monitoring potential tropical storm three.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  71  80  73 /  70  80  80  60
BTR  82  73  82  76 /  90  90  80  60
ASD  79  73  82  77 /  90  90  90  80
MSY  79  75  83  77 / 100  90  90  60
GPT  80  75  80  77 / 100  90  90  80
PQL  79  73  81  75 / 100  90  90  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ056-059-065>070.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ040-049-
     050-057-058-060>064-072.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ530.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ080>082.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
     577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ534.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 20, 5:47 AM CDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
547 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-202300-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
547 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the south central and
southeast Louisiana coast and the adjacent coastal waters. A
coastal flood advisory is in effect across the Mississippi Gulf
coast and along the shorelines of Lake Pontchartrain and Lake
Maurepas. A flash flood watch is in effect across the entire area.

Flooding from areas of persistent moderate to heavy rainfall is
possible starting in coastal areas and gradually spreading inland.
Coastal flooding is likely in the tropical storm warning area and
possible in the coastal flood advisory area. A few of the heavier
showers and thunderstorms could produce waterspouts and brief
tornadoes with this threat starting in coastal Louisiana this
afternoon and spreading north to near the tidal lakes and
Mississippi coastal counties tonight.

For details on these hazards, please refer to the graphical
Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Three Local Statement Advisory, and other graphical products from
the National Weather Service New Orleans Baton Rouge Forecast
Office and the National Hurricane Center.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Significant impacts are expected to continue from Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three through at least Thursday with the most
significant threat being flooding. Please refer to the latest
forecasts, statements, warnings, advisories and graphical products
for additional information. More typical summertime conditions
are expected to return by the weekend, however river flooding
could be occurring.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested at some point over the week.

TD

The office that day

Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 4:39 AM CDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryLIX21 hr
Jun 20, 10:24 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXHancock, Pearl River18 days
Jun 20, 10:24 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXHancock, Pearl River19 days
Jun 20, 10:27 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXPearl River4 days
Jun 20, 10:27 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXPearl River6 days
Jun 20, 10:30 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXHarrison6 days
Jun 20, 10:32 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXHarrison6 days
Jun 20, 10:36 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXJackson14 days
Jun 20, 10:37 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXJackson8 days

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.