Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level trof axis extends roughly from NE LA southwest to
along the TX coast this morning, while an E-W oriented SFC to H7
trof stretched just inland along the LA coast. Primary forecast
concern is rainfall today, including the risk of locally heavy
rainfall.

LAPS analysis along with satellite derived TPW indicate much of LA
within a plume of deep moisture characterized by PWAT values of 2
to 2.35 inches, or near +2 standard deviations. Lift generated by
convergence focused near the LL boundary coupled with divergence
aloft via an upper jet across the Gulf Coast states is helping
facilitate ongoing convection this morning over SE TX/S LA. There
is a fair amount of spread in model guidance with regard to
highest QPF placement today, but generally speaking the I-10
corridor southward across SE TX/SW LA is the favored zone early
this morning, with rainfall tending to lift/expand NE with time in
conjunction with the NE mvmt of the relevant SFC and upper level
features. Deep convection will be capable of intense rainfall
rates, and any training and/or back-building will quickly become
problematic. For the time being have held off on a Flash Flood
Watch in favor of locally heavy rainfall wording given what
appears to be a more localized risk, but will continue to
monitor/evaluate radar trends and incoming guidance the rest of
the morning.

Beyond today, deep layer ridging will begin to build across the
NRN Gulf, reaching peak strength over the weekend before easing a
bit early next week.

13

&&

.MARINE...
An upper level trof of low pressure over the northwest Gulf
coupled with a surface trough of low pressure along the coast
will result in modest south winds and numerous showers and
thunderstorms today. These features are forecast to lift northeast
and away from the area tonight, with decreasing winds and more
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday.
High pressure is expected to build over the area by Saturday,
resulting in drier conditions through the weekend and much of next
week.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  74  89  76 /  60  10  40  10
LCH  84  79  89  79 /  70  10  30  10
LFT  81  75  87  76 /  90  20  40  10
BPT  85  78  89  78 /  50  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
611 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
301115-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
611 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along and south
of the I-10 corridor this morning, expanding northward into parts
of East Central Louisiana this afternoon.Severe thunderstorms are
not expected, but locally heavy rainfall is possible. Average
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected along and southeast
of a line from Bunkie Louisiana to Beaumont Texas, with locally
higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches possible. Rainfall is expected to
come to an end this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Slight and mainly afternoon rain chances are possible Friday and
again next week with a dry weekend in between.

No severe thunderstorms are expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation is not expected Today or Tonight.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-301115-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
611 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the coastal waters Today and Tonight. Widespread severe
thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated waterspouts and
severe marine gusts cannot be ruled out. In addition,
thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, reducing
visibility to one nautical mile or less.

Modest south winds are expected to average between 15 to 20 knots
today over the Gulf waters. Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation is not expected Today or Tonight.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
612 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

LAZ041-073-TXZ215-216-291145-
West Cameron LA-Calcasieu LA-Orange TX-Jefferson TX-
612 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMERON AND
SOUTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES...EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND EASTERN
ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 612 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Orangefield to near Bridge City to near Port
Arthur. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Port Arthur, Orange, Groves, Bridge City, West Orange and
Orangefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2976 9397 2992 9392 3012 9391 3027 9366
      3012 9358 2991 9365 2982 9384 2985 9379
      2989 9377 2997 9376 3000 9379 2998 9383
      2999 9385 2993 9386 2986 9393 2982 9387
      2981 9385 2980 9394 2978 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1112Z 235DEG 22KT 3009 9384 2997 9381 2986 9388

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
650 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

LAZ041-073-291215-
West Cameron LA-Calcasieu LA-
650 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMERON AND
CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

At 650 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Starks to Edgerly to 7 miles southeast of
Vinton to 7 miles north of Sabine National Wildlife. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Sulphur, Westlake, Vinton, Starks, Moss Bluff, De
Quincy, Dequincy, Carlyss, Lunita, Buhler, Gillis and Edgerly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3007 9366 3015 9366 3024 9371 3029 9371
      3030 9374 3041 9356 3040 9349 3044 9349
      3049 9340 3049 9339 3040 9338 3040 9315
      3038 9312 3028 9310 3005 9329 3005 9333
      3004 9333 2991 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1150Z 244DEG 29KT 3031 9361 3022 9353 3011 9350 3000
9360

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
745 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW SULPHUR           30.22N 93.39W
06/29/2017                   CALCASIEU          LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE AREA
            OF PETE SEAY RD AND JENNIFER LN.

&&

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
756 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

LAZ030-031-291330-
Allen LA-Beauregard LA-
756 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BEAUREGARD AND WESTERN
ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

At 755 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Longville to near Dry Creek to near
Reeves. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kinder, Reeves, Dry Creek, Mittie, Ragley, Grant, Longville, Tulla,
Harmony, Leblanc and Bundick Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 9275 3044 9290 3044 9306 3042 9307
      3042 9312 3048 9320 3052 9341 3077 9327
      3082 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 216DEG 15KT 3059 9329 3062 9311 3047 9301

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