Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
919 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017

.UPDATE...
Will continue to be monitoring line of storms as it moves
through the forecast area today. Line of strong to possibly severe
storms is moving through SE Texas. Good marine layer has been
noted on 12Z LCH sounding with elevated showers and isolated
storms ahead of the line. Forecast is generally on track for this
line to move through southwest and south central Louisiana through
the afternoon. For now..no substantial changes to forecasts
although will be frequently adjusting POPs and hazards as line of
storms moves through the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Wednesday...

The main weather story will thunderstorm activity late this
morning through this afternoon. Convection that developed in the
warm sector has exited the CWA and additional activity has yet to
develop this morning. Further west, IR satellite imagery shows
thunderstorms have developed along and behind the cold front
located over central TX. This cold front will be the primary
forcing mechanism for convection today. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and surface
temperatures will result in a moderately unstable atmosphere. This
instability combined with bulk shear of 40-50 knots across the
region will be supportive of severe thunderstorms. The Storm
Prediction Center has included the majority of the CWA in a Slight
Risk for severe weather. The potential for severe thunderstorms
appears most likely from SW LA into CENLA which SPC has
highlighted with an Enhanced Risk. While the primary risk from
these storms will be damaging winds, there is also the potential
for large hail and tornadoes this afternoon.

With regards to the timing of these thunderstorms, the cold front
is currently forecast to enter SE TX by early to mid morning.
The thunderstorms are expected to reach the western tier of
parishes by mid morning and Acadiana by early afternoon. Thunderstorm
activity is expected to be east of the area by Monday evening,
with west winds behind the front ushering drier air into the
region. Finally rid of the marine airmass that has been in place,
cooler temperatures are expected Monday night with still warm but
lower readings Tuesday afternoon.

Long Term...Wednesday through Monday...

Model guidance develops a broad, longwave trough across a
majority of the CONUS during the later half of the forecast
period. In addition, a cutoff low is forecast to be located off of
the Pacific Coast. Unfortunately, there is no consensus among the
model guidance with regard to the evolution of this cutoff low
becoming reintegrated with the main trough. For now, continued
with a blended guidance approach and small PoPs Thursday night
through Sunday based on EPS/GEFS rainfall probabilities.

MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS
THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE
WITH STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXIT THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  51  73  49 /  90  10   0   0
LCH  74  54  73  51 /  90   0   0   0
LFT  77  55  75  52 / 100  10   0   0
BPT  77  53  74  49 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ033-042>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

PUBLIC...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
526 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-031130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-
526 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
INTO ACADIANA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ACADIANA
WHICH HAVE SEEN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LATER TODAY.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-031130-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
526 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 5 TO 8 FEET BEYOND 20 NM.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG
WINDS...WATERSPOUTS...AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LATER TODAY.

TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-031130-
TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
526 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LECOMPTE                31.09N 92.40W
01/02/2017                   RAPIDES            LA   911 CALL CENTER

            E 911 SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED IN LECOMPTE. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

&&

MOGGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 PM CST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELIZABETH               30.87N 92.79W
01/02/2017                   ALLEN              LA   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF BARN WITH ROOF BLOWN OFF ON SOCAIAL MEDIA.
            TIME BASED ON RADAR.

&&

MOGGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1215 PM CST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE SABINE PASS        29.69N 93.84W
01/02/2017  M41 MPH          JEFFERSON          TX   C-MAN STATION

&&

MOGGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 PM CST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BUNKIE                  30.95N 92.19W
01/02/2017                   AVOYELLES          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERPOLES DOWN. ONE HOUSE
            PHYSICALLY MOVED.

&&

MOGGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EVERGREEN               30.95N 92.11W
01/02/2017                   AVOYELLES          LA   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURES SHOW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT
            HWY 361 AND 29. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MOGGED

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