Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1035 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the grids/zones earlier for radar trends as convection
associated with passing mid/upper-level low was developing/moving
ewd across the forecast area. Remaining inherited grids/zones look
in good shape.

Update already out.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

UPDATE...Radar depicting a cluster of convection advancing into
interior southeast Texas and a few lightning strikes being
detected. Updated forecast to include isolated thunder.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 546 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Intermittent MVFR to IFR visibilities/ceilings this morning along
with isolated SHRA developing with upper low over SE TX. Expect
some clearing later this afternoon for BPT, but lingering wrap
around low level clouds likely to yield MVFR ceilings for the
remainder of the morning into the afternoon for LA terminals, and
likely for the forecast period for AEX. Once clearing commences
after 06z, intermittent MVFR to IFR visibilities highlighted in
tempo group from 08-12z WED.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Sharp upper trof currently advancing east across
east Texas in the process of transitioning into a closed low.
Feature progged to move across north Louisiana today, diving
southeast into the north-central gulf overnight. Organized light
to moderate rains associated with system currently exiting the
eastern portion of the forecast area. Will keep low end rain
chances through today for a few showers as system moves through
and associated cool front is dragged across the area. Cooler temps
on tap through the remainder of the workweek but still remaining
above the norm.

After today and a minimal rain chance, looking for an extended
dry weather pattern emerging. Deep northerly flow will overspread
the area as the day progresses between low advancing east and
southeast of the area and modest ridging approaching through the
south plains. Flow will trend more zonal but equally dry for
Thursday and Friday. Next shortwave trof advancing across the
northern plains Friday will send an associated cold front across
the area late in the day. Sharply drier air will be following
this more robust front along with significantly cooler temps.
Might actually see temperatures fall to "below the norm" as 1025
mb surface high migrates across the south plains and lower
Mississippi valley through the weekend. Front will come through
with no rains with very limited moisture available. Warming and
moistening return flow sets up Monday as the high moves east of
the region.

MARINE...Strong low pressure will advance east across north
Louisiana today then dive southeast into the north-central gulf
overnight. Organized rains associated with this feature have
advanced east of the area but a few showers will remain possible
through the day over the northwest gulf. Light easterlies will
trend northerly with the passage of a surface front later today
and remain offshore through Wednesday. Southerlies will return
Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a strong frontal passage
expected Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  57  74  54 /  50  20  10   0
LCH  72  58  75  56 /  40  10   0   0
LFT  72  58  74  55 /  40  20  10   0
BPT  74  58  77  57 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
747 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
221400-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
747 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL BRING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-221400-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
747 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL BRING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
622 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

TXZ259-260-211315-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
622 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JASPER AND NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL 715 AM...

At 620 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sam Rayburn Dam, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Newton, Ebenezer, Browndell, Jamestown, Farrsville,
Harrisburg, Mayflower, Sam Rayburn Dam and Wiergate.

LAT...LON 3078 9371 3092 9420 3107 9426 3111 9406
      3114 9403 3116 9391 3117 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1220Z 280DEG 21KT 3105 9408

Erickson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
734 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

LAZ027-030-TXZ259-260-211430-
Vernon LA-Beauregard LA-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
734 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD AND VERNON PARISHES
AND NORTHERN JASPER AND NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM...

At 732 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burkeville, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Newton, Rosepine, Merryville, Ebenezer, Fort Polk, De Ridder,
Burkeville, Deridder, Browndell, Farrsville, Burr Ferry, Mayflower,
Jamestown, Tulla, Harrisburg, Junction, Stringtown, Sam Rayburn Dam
and Wiergate.

LAT...LON 3106 9310 3061 9316 3095 9423 3096 9423
      3097 9425 3099 9424 3099 9423 3100 9424
      3109 9416 3111 9406 3114 9403 3116 9391
      3116 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1332Z 284DEG 24KT 3092 9356

Erickson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
739 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

LAZ041-073-074-TXZ215-216-211430-
West Cameron LA-Calcasieu LA-East Cameron LA-Orange TX-Jefferson TX-
739 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES...AND CALCASIEU AND CAMERON PARISHES UNTIL 830 AM...

At 737 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms producing
small hail near Vidor and Sabine Pass, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Lake Charles, Port Arthur, Sulphur, Orange, Nederland,
Groves, Port Neches, Vidor, Bridge City, Cameron, West Orange,
Vinton, Grand Lake, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Johnsons Bayou,
Sabine National Wildlife, Mauriceville and Rose City.

LAT...LON 3024 9409 3024 9326 2994 9325 3002 9327
      3005 9329 2985 9335 2986 9344 2978 9324
      2971 9385 2980 9391 2985 9379 3000 9379
      2999 9386 2984 9395 2977 9391 2977 9390
      2976 9390 2971 9386 2969 9400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 282DEG 31KT 3008 9391

Erickson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
833 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

LAZ027-028-030>032-TXZ259-260-211515-
Evangeline LA-Allen LA-Vernon LA-Beauregard LA-Rapides LA-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
833 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 833 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sugartown to near Bon Weir. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oakdale, Jasper, Newton, Kirbyville, Rosepine, Merryville, Elizabeth,
Dry Creek, Singer, Fort Polk, De Ridder, Sugartown, Call, Bon Weir,
Pitkin, Mittie, Grant, Deridder, Trout Creek and Bivens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 9241 3054 9388 3090 9408 3111 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 275DEG 32KT 3081 9304 3080 9366

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
916 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

LAZ030>032-041-042-211600-
Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Evangeline LA-Allen LA-Beauregard LA-
916 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 915 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Elizabeth to Dequincy.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Oakdale, Oberlin, Reeves, Dry Creek, Singer, Fields, De
Quincy, Mittie, Ragley, Grant, Dequincy, Pine Prairie, Longville,
Buhler, Harmony, Topsy, Gillis, Allen Parish Airport and Leblanc.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9224 3025 9335 3053 9373 3088 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1515Z 278DEG 25KT 3079 9283 3044 9342

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
954 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

LAZ030>032-041-042-211645-
Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Evangeline LA-Allen LA-Beauregard LA-
954 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 954 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bond to Leblanc to Buhler. Movement was
southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Ville Platte, Westlake, Mamou, Iowa, Kinder, Basile,
Oberlin, Elton, Fenton, Reeves, Moss Bluff, Pine Prairie, Topsy,
Lebleu Settlement, Gillis, Duralde, Leblanc, Beaver and Buller.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9219 3048 9255 3048 9263 3043 9260
      3040 9264 3014 9321 3032 9348 3056 9301
      3083 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 297DEG 14KT 3074 9261 3054 9294 3033 9334

24