Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
326 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Weather map showing weakening frontal boundary across SE TX/S LA
this afternoon, likely along the I-10 corridor. Showers and
thunderstorms have increased in coverage over the last couple of
hours across SE TX/SW LA, with scattered coverage over the coastal
waters. This was expected with continued consistence from the
HRRR guidance this morning and afternoon. The convection expected
to continue through sunset and diminish this evening after the
loss of daytime heating.

The front is expected to slowly dissipate with a predominate
southeast flow resuming across the region by Tuesday, bringing
with it increased Gulf moisture and higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms
expected Wednesday through Friday as a weak shortwave aloft
enhances lift within our region already saturated with moisture
moving in from the Gulf.

By Friday evening into the weekend, high pressure with slightly
drier air aloft is expected to diminish shower and thunderstorm
chances to near ~20% for the weekend.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure settling east of the area will provide a more
predominate east to southeast flow, with winds and seas
increasing by the end of the week. This will bring increased Gulf
moisture for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms
through Friday. By Friday afternoon into the weekend, high
pressure and drier air aloft is expected to limit shower and
thunderstorm activity.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  89  70  90 /  10  40  20  50
LCH  73  88  73  87 /  30  50  30  50
LFT  71  87  72  87 /  20  50  20  50
BPT  73  87  74  87 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
507 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
271015-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
507 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Deep moisture and a stalled frontal boundary near the coast will
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and
south of I-10. Storms will be capable of producing brief heavy
downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
A daily chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms can
be expected. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will decrease some
by the weekend. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief
heavy downpours with gusty winds will be the main hazards with the
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-271015-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
507 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Deep moisture and a stalled frontal boundary near the coast will
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Brief heavy rainfall
reducing visibility to less than one mile and frequent cloud to
water lightning will be possible with the stronger storms, along
with locally higher winds and seas. Tropical funnel clouds or even
a brief weak water spout will be possible in the developing stage
of showers and storms where boundaries collide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Southeasterly winds will strengthen and seas will build Wednesday
through Friday due to a tightening pressure gradient between high
pressure to the east and lowering pressure over the plains.
Exercise caution to low end advisory conditions will be possible.

Otherwise, typical summertime pattern with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly near shore during the morning and
afternoon and offshore during the overnight. Winds and seas will
be locally higher near the storms along with occasional cloud to
water lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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