Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
627 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For the 30/12Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Unsettled patter to persist through the TAF period as stationary
surface front remains from south central Texas to northeast
Louisiana, with plenty of deep moisture south of it. Upper level
disturbances will periodically ride across the region to help
initiate convection. Looks like convection will move in off the
Gulf through 30/15Z and affect TAF sites at KLCH/KLFT/KARA. Some
MVFR/IFR visibilities in moderate to brief heavy rainfall, and
MVFR type ceilings will occur with the shower activity. Away from
convection, mainly VFR conditions will prevail.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough centered
just southwest of the area this morning. Convection has already
developed over the coastal waters and has been extending inland
over the past several hours. This trend is expected to continue
through the day as the shortwave trough progresses to the
northeast. Ample deep layer moisture is in place over the area
with the 00Z KLCH sounding recording PWAT of 1.77" which falls
between the 75th and 90th percentiles for this time of year. The
SPC mesoanalysis also indicates that PWAT values increase to
around 2" just offshore. The 00Z sounding also measured a warm
cloud layer depth of around 3 km which would suggest that any
convection today should be efficient at producing precipitation.
As a result, WPC has highlighted most of the region with a
Marginal Risk for isolated flooding today. The greatest
likelihood of precipitation and total rainfall today will be over
Acadiana. Rainfall amounts of 3-5+ inches will be possible with
the stronger convection over the region.

The wet weather pattern is expected to continue through the rest
of the week as onshore flow redevelops today. A steady stream of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea will result in
PWAT values ranging from +1 to +2 sigma over the region through
the weekend. Therefore, high rainfall chances will exist each day
with the greatest rainfall totals from convection being driven by
mesoscale boundaries. A breakdown in the pattern may come early
next week as model guidance brings a shortwave trough across the
region.

MARINE...
An active weather pattern will continue over the coastal waters
through the week with showers and thunderstorms possible each
day. Easterly winds today will become more southerly tonight and
increase heading into the weekend. Increasing winds and seas will
likely result in at least Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
for coastal waters from 20-60 NM later Friday through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  68  84  69 /  60  30  50  30
LCH  82  70  84  72 /  70  30  50  40
LFT  81  71  84  72 /  80  50  60  30
BPT  85  71  85  72 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
425 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
310930-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
425 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region today
and tonight. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be across Acadiana. Some thunderstorms will be capable of locally
heavy rainfall which could result in isolated minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day Wednesday
through Monday. Some thunderstorms will be capable of locally
heavy rainfall which could result in isolated minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-310930-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
425 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across eastern portions of
the coastal waters today. Locally higher winds and seas will be
possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the coastal waters
each day Wednesday through Monday.

Increasing onshore winds and seas could result in Small Craft
Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory conditions late Friday
through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
802 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

LAZ052-301345-
Vermilion LA-
802 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH
UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

At 801 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pecan Island, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pecan Island around 815 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2955 9239 2957 9257 2986 9242 2975 9221
      2973 9220 2971 9218 2970 9214 2972 9215
      2972 9214 2971 9214 2970 9210 2967 9213
      2964 9212 2962 9213 2954 9226 2953 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1301Z 214DEG 14KT 2958 9245

Rua