Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
852 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Large MCS continues across inland SE TX/C LA this evening, with
flood warnings continuing for 5-8" of rainfall. KLCH dual pole
precip shows isolated amounts 10" but radar a little on the warm
bias this evening. SPC lowered risk to enhanced over C and SC LA,
as well as issued TORNADO Watch 113 until 2 am. This is mainly
for a band of thunderstorms is expected to reorient more north-
south and begin to progress eastward over the watch area tonight,
offering damaging gusts and the risk for embedded tornadoes. The
potential still exists for tornadic supercells ahead of the line
as well.

Several adjustments were made to QPF values this evening and
overnight, along with pops for current trends.

Tidal surge from the southerly winds have pushed water up the
Sabine/Calcasieu rivers, with tidal readings in Lake Charles
~3-3.3 Feet MLLW this evening, which is over 2 feet above
astronomical tide prediction. Similiar readings along Sabine Lake
at Rainbow Bridge and Port Arthur holding at 3 feet MLLW. Have
extended the area for the coastal flood advisory to include Orange
County and Calcasieu Parish.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...Forecast area under an unusually active and very
dangerous weather pattern. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
ongoing with most strong and a few severe. A more linear line
extends northeast to southwest over southeast Texas and watching
this area closely for a potential flash flood warning as storms
continue to train. Tornado watch 110 has now been extended south
to the interstate 10 corridor and encompasses all of Louisiana
into east Texas. All severe weather modes will remain in place
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. This
includes tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail. Flooding rains
will also remain a threat.

A PDF (Particularly Dangerous Situation) was issued with tornado
watch 110 was issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Included was
"Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected.
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely. Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely."

Rain chances will end west to east as the night progresses with
increasingly vertically stacked low pressure tracking northeast
across north Texas into Oklahoma advancing a cold front across
the area. Sharply drier air will then follow. Next frontal passage
arrives Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Limited moisture and
lift to work with so rain chances remain slim at this time. We
will see a sharp decrease in temps with FROPA that will be
maintained through the remainder of the week.

MARINE...Strong and gusty southeast winds will gradually diminish
overnight as strong low pressure advances northeast from Texas an
an associated cold front advances across the northwest gulf. With
passage of the front, winds will trend more westerly while any
lingering showers and thunderstorms ending.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  58  84 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  65  79  63  83 /  90  10   0   0
LFT  69  81  61  84 /  90  20   0   0
BPT  62  80  63  82 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for LAZ041-052>055-
     073-074.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for LAZ041>045-052>055-073-
     074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ215-216.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

PUBLIC...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
156 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
031900-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
156 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
  Central and Northern Louisiana
  West-central Mississippi
  East Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
  Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
  Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...A dangerous combination of parameters suggests that
tornadoes will occur over parts of east TX, northern and central LA,
and eastern MS this afternoon and evening.  Strong tornadoes are a
concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Another upper disturbance will move into the Central Plains by
the middle of this week. This will bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Wednesday. No severe weather is anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed today and tonight.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-031900-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
156 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Minor coastal flooding is expected for today as moderate to strong
southerly winds will bring much higher than normal tides to the
coast.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays, nearshore and
offshore waters. Mariners should also be aware that scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are forecasted. Frequent lightning,
torrential rain and gusty and potentially damaging winds may also
accompany the storms.

Mariners are highly urged to monitor weather conditions today and
tonight. Be sure to have a means to obtain weather and warning
information quickly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Winds will diminish on Monday.

Another upper disturbance will move into the Central Plains by the
middle of this week. This will bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Wednesday. At this time, no hazardous weather is
expected, but the passage of a cold front will bring moderate to
strong offshore flow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
844 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W KOUNTZE             30.37N 94.35W
04/02/2017                   HARDIN             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER OVER FM 1293 WEST OF KOUNTZE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
909 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAZ028-031-032-030300-
Evangeline LA-Allen LA-Rapides LA-
909 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RAPIDES...NORTHERN
EVANGELINE AND NORTHEASTERN ALLEN PARISHES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 908 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Glenmora and Oakdale, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Oakdale, Glenmora, Turkey Creek, Pine Prairie, Lecompte,
Bayou Chicot, Allen Parish Airport, Beaver, Bond, St. Landry,
Woodworth, Forest Hill, Mcnary and Union Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for central and
southwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3064 9264 3097 9280 3128 9247 3084 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 220DEG 45KT 3081 9265

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
927 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

LAZ030-041-TXZ260-262-030315-
Calcasieu LA-Beauregard LA-Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-
927 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD...NORTHWESTERN
CALCASIEU PARISHES IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 927 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bivens to near Devils Pocket. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Merryville, Singer, Fields, Bon Weir, De Quincy, Deridder, Dequincy,
Longville, Bivens, Tulla, Bancroft and Oretta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3084 9319 3041 9326 3035 9379 3076 9367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 238DEG 19KT 3066 9365 3040 9372

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
931 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BALL                    31.42N 92.41W
04/02/2017                   RAPIDES            LA   PUBLIC

            PARADISE ROAD FLOODING IN THE BALL AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALEXANDRIA              31.29N 92.46W
04/02/2017                   RAPIDES            LA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
956 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW ALEXANDRIA        31.28N 92.47W
04/02/2017                   RAPIDES            LA   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF WATER IN HOMES.

&&