Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

H5 Ridging across the western CONUS continues this
morning and has shifted slightly west over the past 24 hours. High
pressure extended from northern Nevada west to off the coast of
California. A ridge extended north into the Alaska panhandle and the
Yukon this morning. Downstream of this ridge, a closed low was
present over far northern Canada with a trough of low pressure
extending south to Hudson Bay. Between these two features, a strong
shortwave trough was present over northern Alberta with a secondary
shortwave over southern Manitoba. Another weaker wave was present
over northwestern South Dakota. This feature has progressed
southeast over the past 3 to 6 hours, and has led to the development
of thunderstorms over central South Dakota this morning. This
activity has since moved into south central South Dakota and
northeastern portions of the forecast area. Further south, mostly
clear skies were present over the central and western Sandhills as
well as the eastern panhandle and portions of southwestern Nebraska.
Some cloudiness was present over portions of central Nebraska.
Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 79 at Valentine to 90 at
Ogallala.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

A new forecast is in place using a three-way blend of
HRRR/HRRREXP/RAP model data. This takes the thunderstorms through
Swrn Neb this evening as suggested by radar.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

For this evening, will be evaluating ongoing thunderstorms in the
northeast and will be adjusting the timing of them for the
evening forecast. Two areas are favored for thunderstorms tonight.
The first in the northeastern CWA where lingering thunderstorms
from this afternoon will track southeast from south central South
Dakota. The second area is across the west and northwestern
forecast area. A shortwave, currently over western Montana, will
track to the east southeast this evening before emerging across
western South Dakota overnight. There will be a limited threat for
thunderstorms in the western CWA this evening as convection
drifts southeast off of the Black Hills and eastern Wyoming. This
activity is expected dissipate this evening. Overnight, toward 12z
Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected to develop over western
South Dakota and track southeast, approaching northwestern
portions of the forecast area toward 12z Wednesday. convection
will linger across northern Nebraska Wednesday morning, then
redevelop Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches northern
Nebraska. This front will push through the area late Wednesday
into Wednesday evening. This will be the best chance for
widespread convection, particularly in north and eastern cwa where
dynamics aloft are co-located with the frontal posn. Further
south and west, thunderstorm chances do not look nearly as
probable, but given the strength of the cold front, felt at least
a slight chance mention in the southwest was warranted here.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Thursday through Friday...The cold front will be forced well
south of the area Thursday into Thursday night with dry and cool
conditions expected. The latest EC and MEX guidance touch the
upper 40s across most of the forecast area Friday morning. This
seems reasonable given the degree of dry air moving in behind the
front, light winds and strong high pressure which is anchored over
central Nebraska at 12z Friday. Highs Thursday will struggle to
get out of the mid 70s due to the degree of strong CAA behind the
exiting front, and the threat for cloud cover to linger,
especially across the north and northeastern forecast area. Friday
will see a slight rebound in temperatures as high pressure move
southeast into northern Missouri. This will lead to increased
southerly winds across western and north central Nebraska.

Friday night through Tuesday...The increased southerly winds Friday,
will begin to lift a warm front into southwestern Nebraska and the
eastern Nebraska panhandle. Both the EC and GFS solutions, develop
convection within the northwesterly flow aloft Friday night INVOF of
the frontal boundary. The EC solution develops most of its
convection in the northeastern cwa while the GFS develops most of its
convection in southwestern Nebraska which seems most reasonable as
this is where the surface frontal boundary is located. This boundary
will progress east on Saturday into Saturday evening with
thunderstorm chances spreading east. The threat will linger come to
an end Sunday as another strong cold front pushes through the
region. Dry and seasonal conditions will follow on Monday into
Tuesday

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

A three-way blend of HRRR/HRRREXP/RAP model data takes the
thunderstorms through Swrn Neb this evening as suggested by radar.

A new area of showers and thunderstorms should develop Wednesday
morning/aftn across Ncntl Neb affecting areas along and east of a
line from KVTN-KTIF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
602 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022315-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
602 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017 /502 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening. Locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning and pea
size hail are the hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A more organized threat for thunderstorms exists Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night as a cold front pushes through.
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms.

Thunderstorms will again be possible this weekend. At this time,
the threat for severe storms is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 WSW STAPLETON         41.44N 100.65W
08/01/2017  M1.50 INCH       LOGAN              NE   PUBLIC

&&

JGOMEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
855 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

NEZ059-070-071-020245-
Frontier NE-Hayes NE-Lincoln NE-
855 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHEASTERN HAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

At 854 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles northwest of Moorefield to near
Wellfleet. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

One to two inches of rainfall in an hour and Wind gusts up to 50 mph
will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Wellfleet, Moorefield, Maywood and Hansen Memorial Reserve
State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 33 and 63.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4068 10094 4090 10071 4082 10022 4073 10022
      4043 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 319DEG 19KT 4087 10056 4071 10079

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
920 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HEAVY RAIN       16 SW MULLEN            41.88N 101.26W
08/01/2017  E0.42 INCH       HOOKER             NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JGOMEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
925 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

NEZ038-020315-
Custer NE-
925 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

At 924 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Merna to 8 miles east of Arnold. Movement
was south at 20 mph.

One to one and one-half inches of rainfall in an hour and wind gusts
up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Callaway, Merna, Lodi and Milldale.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 near mile marker 269, and between mile markers 271 and
272.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 263 and 273.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 9999 4144 10007 4155 9983 4132 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 342DEG 18KT 4151 9981 4141 10002

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
938 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

NEZ059-071-020330-
Frontier NE-Lincoln NE-
938 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FRONTIER AND SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 938 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Moorefield to 9 miles
north of McCook. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

One to two inches of rainfall and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Moorefield, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State
Recreation Area, Quick, Orafino, Bluegill Haven Campground, Willow
View Campground, Freedom, Red Willow Reservoir State Recreation Area
and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 27 and 36.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 10072 4086 10045 4079 10022 4070 10022
      4070 10010 4035 10026 4035 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 328DEG 17KT 4079 10032 4035 10061

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1008 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

NEZ071-020345-
Frontier NE-
1008 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM CDT...

At 1006 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stockville, or 13 miles east of Curtis, moving southeast at 30 mph.

One inch of rainfall and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area and Orafino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10035 4062 10036 4063 10025 4049 9998
      4044 9998 4044 10009 4036 10009 4035 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 328DEG 25KT 4057 10028

CDC