Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 453 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017
Updated forecast for severe thunderstorm watch

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The model blend of HRRR, HRRR exp and RAP are close to the synoptic
NAM and GFS. Weakly organized MCS activity is expected this evening
across Nrn Neb which could last into Thursday morning. 500 mb winds
aloft remain weak at 25 kt or less but moisture is robust with
ambient precipitable water north of 1.5 inches. The models suggest
just an isolated heavy rain potential with the storms tonight.

The forcing is off the Black Hills and associated with a southward
propagating cold front. POPs for this forecast are limit at 30
percent. Our friendly RAP model continues to show very warm
temperatures near 15C at 700mb which could represent significant
inhibition for storm development.

The temperature forecast uses blended bias corrected guidance for
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight and blended guidance plus
bias correction Thursday for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
north. Upper 90s to around 100 are expected south and a heat
advisory may be necessary across Chase, Hayes and Frontier Counties.

The NAM, GFS, GEM and SREF blend suggest additional MCS activity
north of the stationary Thursday afternoon across Nrn Neb. Winds
aloft are still weak, less than 25kt in the NAM and GFS, and there
are timing differences.  The GFS is about 6 hrs faster than the NAM
which holds off on the MCS until Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The models show MCS activity growing upscale across Nrn Neb Thursday
evening. The outflow from these thunderstorms should sweep south and
cool down Swrn Neb Friday. Bias corrected model data from the NAM,
GFS, ECM and GEM models still forecast highs well into the 90s to
around 100 Friday so their is a dispute in the forecast as to how
warm it will be. Despite the outflow, h700mb temperatures in the
models appear to rebound to the 16-17C range which is very warm.

All models cool temperatures Saturday as the h500mb ridge moves into
the midsouth. The upper level ridge remains south Sunday and builds
west into the desert Southwest. This sets up northwest flow aloft
with cooler Pacific and Canadian air moving into Nebraska Sunday
through Wednesday.

The rain forecast is less predictable. The cooler temperatures aloft
and northwest flow will support thunderstorm development off of the
Black Hills and Big Horns. Scattered rain chances are in place
Friday and Saturday associated with a cold front drifting south
through the Central Plains. Moisture becomes limited Sunday and
beyond for generally isolated chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Thunderstorms will continue along a line from KSNY to just south
of KVTN to KONL through the late evening. Storms in the vcnty of
KONL are severe with 60mph or greater winds and hail to the size
of ping pong balls. Winds to the north of this line are shifting
to the north and continue out of the south to southeast to the
south of the line. Clouds will move into western Nebraska from the
west overnight with cigs AOA BKN120.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ005>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Thursday for NEZ038-069>071.

&&

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 /212 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees across much of western
and north central Nebraska during the early evening.

Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening, mainly along and north of a line from Oshkosh to Tryon
to Burwell. The best chances exist this evening into the small
hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Heat index values are likely to reach or exceed 100 degrees
Thursday and Friday across parts of southwest and north central
Nebraska. Additional heat advisories are in place Thursday for
parts of southwest and south central Nebraska.

Scattered short-lived severe thunderstorms are possible along and
north of a line from Oshkosh to Elsmere to O'Neill. Elsewhere,
isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible.
Current thinking is the best window for thunderstorms will be
Thursday evening and night. Damaging winds and hail are the main
hazards, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well.

While thunderstorms are forecast Friday and beyond with the best
chances occurring mainly in the afternoon and evening, the risk
of severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
754 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             3 SE EMMET              42.44N 98.77W
07/19/2017  M1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RKULIK

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
849 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

NEZ024-025-094-200245-
Hooker NE-Western Cherry NE-Thomas NE-
849 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT...NORTHERN HOOKER AND NORTHWESTERN THOMAS COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM CDT/845 PM MDT/...

At 849 PM CDT/749 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles east of Whitman, or 15 miles west of Mullen,
moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mullen, Seneca, Carr Lake, Norway, Hecla, Kelso and Weir.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 165 and 203.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 60 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT/1100
PM MDT/ for north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4209 10074 4209 10071 4191 10070 4195 10143
      4209 10143 4210 10145 4213 10145 4218 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 268DEG 23KT 4204 10135

Power

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
805 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

NEZ023-094-200245-
Grant NE-Western Cherry NE-
805 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM MDT...

At 805 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whitman, or 32 miles west of Mullen, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hyannis, Whitman, Whitman Road crossing the North Branch of the
Middle Loup River and Duluth.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 143 and 164.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 153 and 173.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4194 10183 4220 10181 4220 10143 4193 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 263DEG 20KT 4207 10167

Snively