Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

H5 analysis from this morning had a high located over
southern Utah with a ridge extending north into the Yukon and north
slope of Alaska. A closed low was located off the southern coast of
Alaska. East of the ridge, a closed low was located over northern
portions of Hudson Bay with a trough extending south into the Mid-
Atlantic states and Carolinas. Across the central and southern
plains, very weak mid level flow was noted with northerly winds of
10 to 15 KTS extending from Nebraska and eastern Colorado, south to
Texas. At the surface, low pressure was located over central North
Dakota with a stationary front extending east and west of this
feature, while a surface trough extended south into central
Nebraska. Across western and north central Nebraska, winds west of
the trough took on more of a westerly component, while winds along
and east of the trough were nearly calm to light southerly.
Under mostly clear skies this afternoon, 3 PM CDT readings
ranged from 97 at Broken Bow to 108 at Valentine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

onight through Monday: In the short range, the threat
for isolated thunderstorms tonight, followed by highs on Monday are
the main forecast challenges. For tonight. Inherited forecast had a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in the northern portion of the
forecast area this evening. Based on some upstream cu formation in
South Dakota and the presence of some meager (1000 J/KG CAPE) across
northern Nebraska, couldn't totally rule out an isolated
thunderstorm in the north through mid evening. Shear remains very
weak into the evening hours, so no severe storms are expected and
they are expected to quickly dissipate beyond mid evening. For
Monday, the forecast challenge shifts to temperatures and where a
frontal boundary decides to stall out tomorrow afternoon. Looking
at this mornings runs, the NAM12 is most aggressive with the front
pushing it as far south as Imperial Monday afternoon. The GFS is
further north, forcing the front to near I80 while the WARW is a
compromise. No surprise, the MAV and MET guidance for LBF tomorrow
are spread apart 5 degrees with 94 with the MAV and 89 for the MET.
Based on the guidance trends, I did go ahead and lower temps
slightly from the inherited forecast, however, they were kept in the
higher end of guidance, especially in the south where the forecast
frontal position is uncertain.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.Mid range (Monday night through Wednesday): On Monday
night, a decent shortwave will push east across Wyoming emerging
onto the Nebraska Panhandle early Monday evening. The models
initiate convection over the western panhandle around 00z Tuesday,
lifting it east overnight across central and northern Nebraska. With
a frontal boundary expected to be oriented east and west across the
forecast area and a nice low level jet, convection should sustain
itself overnight as it tracks east. For now, pops in the 30 to 40
percent range will due as scattered coverage is expected. After
Monday night, the temperature forecast will be tricky once again for
Tuesday into Wednesday. If convection Monday night can force the
frontal boundary south into Kansas, the ongoing forecast of mid to
upper 90s for Tuesday will need to be modified downward. Looking at
the NAM12 and GFS solns, there remains some disagreement as to where
the front will be on Tuesday. If the NAM were to verify with the
front off to the south, the current forecast of mid to upper 90s
will need to be cooled off 5 to 10 degrees. This solution is in
stark contrast to the GFS which holds onto another very warm day
across the forecast area. Riding across the west will be suppressed
further midweek as a more active northern stream sets up. this will
lead to cooler readings across the forecast area, albeit, upper 80s
and lower 90s are expected which is still slightly above normal.

Wednesday night through Sunday: Low pressure will intensify across
the Gulf of Alaska late in the week, allowing high pressure to
intensify across the western CONUS with a high amplitude ridge
developing into next weekend. After highs in the lower 90s Thursday
and Friday, readings will climb back into the mid to upper 90s for
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

The supercell severe thunderstorm across Holt county should
continue oncourse through that area and exit by 02z. Similarly,
the isolated thunderstorms elsewhere are expected to dissipate
around 02z, 04z at the latest. These storms are driven by heating
which should end with the approach of sunset.

A dry forecast is in place through 21z Monday. A new area of
thunderstorms may develop across Swrn Neb 21z-00z Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-102045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
340 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017 /240 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening across portions
of the area. The main weather hazard will be the potential for a
lightning induced grass fire.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A weak cold front will settle south and become nearly stationary
along or just south of Interstate 80 Monday afternoon. There is
some potential for stronger, organized thunderstorm activity along
and north of the front across most of the area Monday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     BUTTE                   42.91N 98.85W
07/09/2017  E60.00 MPH       BOYD               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
654 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW SPENCER            42.84N 98.74W
07/09/2017  E60 MPH          BOYD               NE   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN.

&&

BTAYLOR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

NEZ007-010-100045-
Holt NE-Boyd NE-
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HOLT AND EASTERN
BOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms from
near Spencer to 11 miles southwest of Lynch. Movement was southeast
at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Spencer, Lynch, Bristow, Anoka, Monowi, Opportunity, Spencer Dam,
Dorsey, Midway, Scottville, Redbird State Wildlife Management Area
and Anncar.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 281 between mile markers 190 and 219.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 112 and 135.

LAT...LON 4256 9873 4298 9884 4286 9831 4278 9830
      4246 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 304DEG 18KT 4293 9875 4271 9864

CDC

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