Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
308 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017

The short range models, HRRR/RAP and NAMnest, suggest some sort of
convective destabilization late this afternoon and tonight affecting
Wrn and Ncntl Neb. Pops are isolated given the weak forcing. The
storm development across the Panhandle should move southeast this
afternoon and then curve south through Swrn Neb. Note that SCAM
shows a storm motion of 6 kt or less with all storms in Neb and
Colo. The storm motion will probably be driven by outflow.

A better opportunity for storm development could be Thursday
afternoon. The models suggest convective development off the Black
Hills or along a warm front draped across the White River. If this
development can survive into the early evening, then the low level
jet would cause an increase in inflow and the system should turn
south and move through either Wrn or Ncntl Neb.

Any severe weather threat would probably be cold pool wind gusts.
The shear is weak with 15 to 30 kt winds at 500mb and most updrafts
would be relatively short lived.

The temperature forecast follows a blend of guidance plus bias
correction for lows in the 50s and 60s tonight with highs in the 80s
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017

The models show a series of low pressure systems tracking through
the Dakotas Friday through Monday. Thunderstorms should form across
this area and the models suggest outflow from the storms could move
momentarily into Nrn Neb and take some the edge off the heat wave
conditions. The blend of model and guidance data plus bias correction
continue to reflect a 4 day heat wave but temperatures may not reach
90F every day across Nrn Neb.

There are only isolated thunderstorm chances in the forecast. A
strong 15-17C h700mb cap will be in place holding the atmosphere
down. A strong Pacific cold front moves through Tuesday but dry air
ahead of the front could very well produce a dry frontal passage.
Cooler weather should continue Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017

VFR is generally expected this afternoon through Thursday morning.

The short range models, HRRR/RAP and NAMnest, suggest some sort of
convective destabilization late this afternoon and tonight affecting
Wrn and Ncntl Neb. The forcing is weak and storm coverage is
expected to remain isolated.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
308 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-082015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
308 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 /208 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, with the best
chance across Southwest Nebraska. A few strong or briefly severe
storms may develop. Large hail, locally heavy rainfall and wind
damage are the threat with any severe storms which develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Thunderstorms are possible across western and north central
Nebraska Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Storm coverage
will generally be isolated and the threat for severe weather is
low. Strong wind gusts to around 50 mph may develop with the
stronger storms.

Beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend, high
temperatures will reach the 90s across the outlook area. Minimum
relative humidity will reach 15 to 20 percent during the
afternoon
hours on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, increasing the threat for
range fires. At this time, the eastern panhandle and western
Sandhills will see the lowest relative humidity.

Thunderstorms are also possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
At this time, the threat for severe storms is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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