Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to become scattered near and north of
Interstate 80 tonight.

Discrete storms will be possible early this evening east of a
line from Hayes Center through North Platte and Callaway, with a
few storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A
dryline bulge is forecast to push into southern Hayes and Frontier
County by early evening with a warm front just to the north. The
latest runs of the HRRR and RAP models are in similar agreement
with this location. Other isolated storms may develop along a
surface trough across the western Sandhills early evening. As the
boundary layer cools, the surface based storms will diminish or
move east of the forecast area. Elevated storms will then develop
northward as the evening progresses. Storms should become more
numerous as a low level jet develops across our southeastern and
eastern zones, and a cold front across the northwest pushes
southeast overnight. With storm motion only 10 kts to the east and
northeast, locally heavy rainfall may occur. The higher chances
for showers and storms overnight will be east of a line from
Broken Bow, Thedford and Ainsworth. The elevated storms will
still be capable of nickel size hail and gusty winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Lingering showers possible Saturday morning in the northeast,
otherwise the remainder of the weekend looks dry. Highs Saturday
will be cooler behind the Pacific cold front from the mid 60s
northwest to around 70 southeast.

Elevated fire weather condition to develop Saturday afternoon across
the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska with relative
humidity falling to 15-20 percent and northwest winds gusting to
around 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

Slightly warmer Sunday near 70 with light southerly winds
increasing to 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday night, the upper flow remains zonal with a weak cold front
across the area. An increase mid mid level moisture and a weak
disturbance will bring a chance for showers, followed by a
stronger and deeper upper trough approaching and moving across
Monday afternoon and Monday night. A surge of Gulf moisture into
the region with weak instability and mid level lapse rates near
7.5 c/km, thunderstorms are possible. Models agree on an organized
thunderstorms complex tracking across the Dakotas into north
central and central Nebraska overnight. Another upper trough cross
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday providing another chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms. Off and on shower chances
Wednesday night through Friday, as a trough and closed low tracks
into the Four Corners Region. Medium range models consensus is
for much of the showers and thunderstorms to be focused from
Kansas southward on Friday, with some chance that model could
trend northward and bring higher chances to Western Nebraska.

Highs remain above normal Monday and Tuesday in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Forecast highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, then
mid to upper 50s Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

For the KLBF terminal: There will be a small threat for
thunderstorms tonight and will handle mention of them with
vicinity wording for now. Otherwise, ceilings will generally be in
the 7000 to 10000 Ft Agl range overnight with clearing skies
expected Saturday afternoon. For the KVTN terminal: Expect
scattered high cloudiness to persist overnight with a small threat
for thunderstorms from 06z to 10z Saturday. Otherwise, expect
scattered to broken ceilings from 5000 to 7000 Ft Agl with
clearing expected Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-152100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
350 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017 /250 PM MDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible early this evening east of a
line from Hayes Center to North Platte and Broken Bow. Any storms
which develop will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds. Additional thunderstorms are possible mid evening
and overnight across much of western and north central Nebraska.
There is a possibility for a few strong thunderstorms with hail up
to nickel size and gusty winds. Locally heavy rain is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Saturday afternoon
west of Ellsworth to Hayes Center as northwest winds up to 20 mph
will combine with afternoon humidity between 15 to 20 percent.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and Monday night. The
threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of southwest
and central Nebraska this evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Roberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
935 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             2 E SARGENT             41.64N 99.33W
04/14/2017  M1.25 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

SJACOBS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1026 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

NEZ038-150415-
Custer NE-
1026 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL 1115
PM CDT...

At 1026 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Berwyn to near Arcadia. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sargent, Comstock, Berwyn, Weissert, Westerville, Big Oak Canyon,
Arcadia Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area, Divide Hill and
Wescott.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 92 and 121.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 281 and 292.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4132 9966 4174 9939 4174 9921 4140 9921
      4139 9920 4130 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 208DEG 39KT 4141 9953 4141 9922

Snively