Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS North Platte, NE

738 
WWUS53 KLBF 192312
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

NEC089-192330-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-170719T2330Z/
Holt NE-
612 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY...

At 611 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles north of O'Neill to near Atkinson, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. 

Locations impacted include...
O'neill, O'Neill, Atkinson, Emmet, Opportunity, Scottville and
Midway.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 287 and 309.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 183 and 200.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4234 9884 4245 9922 4270 9871 4268 9831
      4261 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 280DEG 11KT 4264 9862 4247 9897 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Power

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
454 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 453 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017
Updated forecast for severe thunderstorm watch

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The model blend of HRRR, HRRR exp and RAP are close to the synoptic
NAM and GFS. Weakly organized MCS activity is expected this evening
across Nrn Neb which could last into Thursday morning. 500 mb winds
aloft remain weak at 25 kt or less but moisture is robust with
ambient precipitable water north of 1.5 inches. The models suggest
just an isolated heavy rain potential with the storms tonight.

The forcing is off the Black Hills and associated with a southward
propagating cold front. POPs for this forecast are limit at 30
percent. Our friendly RAP model continues to show very warm
temperatures near 15C at 700mb which could represent significant
inhibition for storm development.

The temperature forecast uses blended bias corrected guidance for
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight and blended guidance plus
bias correction Thursday for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
north. Upper 90s to around 100 are expected south and a heat
advisory may be necessary across Chase, Hayes and Frontier Counties.

The NAM, GFS, GEM and SREF blend suggest additional MCS activity
north of the stationary Thursday afternoon across Nrn Neb. Winds
aloft are still weak, less than 25kt in the NAM and GFS, and there
are timing differences.  The GFS is about 6 hrs faster than the NAM
which holds off on the MCS until Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The models show MCS activity growing upscale across Nrn Neb Thursday
evening. The outflow from these thunderstorms should sweep south and
cool down Swrn Neb Friday. Bias corrected model data from the NAM,
GFS, ECM and GEM models still forecast highs well into the 90s to
around 100 Friday so their is a dispute in the forecast as to how
warm it will be. Despite the outflow, h700mb temperatures in the
models appear to rebound to the 16-17C range which is very warm.

All models cool temperatures Saturday as the h500mb ridge moves into
the midsouth. The upper level ridge remains south Sunday and builds
west into the desert Southwest. This sets up northwest flow aloft
with cooler Pacific and Canadian air moving into Nebraska Sunday
through Wednesday.

The rain forecast is less predictable. The cooler temperatures aloft
and northwest flow will support thunderstorm development off of the
Black Hills and Big Horns. Scattered rain chances are in place
Friday and Saturday associated with a cold front drifting south
through the Central Plains. Moisture becomes limited Sunday and
beyond for generally isolated chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR is generally expected this afternoon through Thursday morning.

The model blend of HRRR, HRRR exp and RAP are close to the synoptic
NAM and GFS. Weakly organized MCS activity is expected this evening
across Nrn Neb which could last into Thursday morning. The
forcing is off the Black Hills and associated with a southward
propagating cold front.

None of the models indicate fog development tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ005>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Thursday for NEZ038-069>071.

&&

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 /212 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees across much of western
and north central Nebraska during the early evening.

Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening, mainly along and north of a line from Oshkosh to Tryon
to Burwell. The best chances exist this evening into the small
hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Heat index values are likely to reach or exceed 100 degrees
Thursday and Friday across parts of southwest and north central
Nebraska. Additional heat advisories are in place Thursday for
parts of southwest and south central Nebraska.

Scattered short-lived severe thunderstorms are possible along and
north of a line from Oshkosh to Elsmere to O'Neill. Elsewhere,
isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible.
Current thinking is the best window for thunderstorms will be
Thursday evening and night. Damaging winds and hail are the main
hazards, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well.

While thunderstorms are forecast Friday and beyond with the best
chances occurring mainly in the afternoon and evening, the risk
of severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
531 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             11 S BUTTE              42.75N 98.88W
07/19/2017  M0.50 INCH       HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RKULIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             11 NE ATKINSON          42.65N 98.84W
07/19/2017  M0.50 INCH       HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN REPORTED AS WELL AS HAIL

&&

RKULIK