Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS North Platte, NE

190 
WWUS53 KLBF 030220
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEC063-030245-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-170703T0245Z/
Frontier NE-
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR FRONTIER COUNTY...

At 920 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area to
12 miles north of Holbrook to Eustis, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Eustis, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation
Area, Quick, Orafino, Bluegill Haven Campground, Willow View
Campground, Freedom, Red Willow Reservoir State Recreation Area and
Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 10078 4069 9998 4044 9998 4044 10009
      4036 10009 4035 10014 4035 10078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 301DEG 29KT 4036 10026 4047 10010 4066 10001 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDC

325 
WWUS53 KLBF 030238
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
938 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEC063-030245-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-170703T0245Z/
Frontier NE-
938 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY...

At 938 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles northeast
of Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 23 miles east
of Curtis, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Frontier County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 10027 4067 9998 4044 9998 4044 10009
      4036 10009 4035 10014 4035 10015 4054 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 004DEG 14KT 4051 10010 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CDC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough extending
roughly from western MT to UT with a ridge downstream across the
Central High Plains into the Northern Plains. A stationary
boundary is located at the surface across far northwest NEB to the
Central Sandhills to north central NEB. Local radar display shows
isolated thunderstorms developing near the boundary in Garfield
and Wheeler counties. However, convection hasn't been that strong
at this point with reflectivity cores peaking largely between
25-30 kft. Latest vis imagery shows outside of this area an
enhanced cumulus field and growth between Broken Bow to Almeria
to Ewing and upstream of there across portions of the central
Sandhills.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows moderate instability presently with
very little inhibition across the NEB Panhandle into central NEB
with MLCAPES ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg. Surface dew points are
expected to range from the mid 50s in far western NEB to lower 60s
in north central NEB. Deep layer vertical wind shear (0-6 km) is
presently only about 25 kts, however, it expected to increase to
early evening peaking around 30-35 kts. As such, storms modes
favored in development this afternoon and evening is primarily
organized multicells, though some supercells cannot be ruled out.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats this
afternoon and evening given characteristics of soundings. Wherein
a dry sub-cloud layer is expected to be in place, ample DCAPE,
decent mid-level lapse rates, and quantity of CAPE in the HGZ to
favor larger hail growth. Initially concerns will be towards
isolated to scattered thunderstorms development across the
aforementioned boundary this afternoon into evening over the
central Sandhills towards the Interstate 80 corridor. Then
thunderstorm chances are tailored towards development upstream to
our west. Storms that develop in the higher terrain are expected
to then move eastward into the local forecast area. Of which, the
greatest chances for this is over the southwest quad and northern
NEB, the latter from development occurring in SD.

Low temperatures should be on the mild side with clouds and
elevated winds tonight. Cooler highs tomorrow. There is a marginal
risk for thunderstorms as well. Details are a little harder to
pinpoint given thunderstorms today and tonight will influence
tomorrow. This spread in the forecast envelope is seen in
deterministic guidance as well. While moderate instability is
expected to be present with surface dew points similar to today,
if not slightly higher in north central NEB more so towards the
mid 60s, uncertainty exists in low-level forcing. The short wave
trough will be moving from the Northern Plains to Central High
Plains early tomorrow morning farther into the Northern/Central
Plains Monday. Further, deep layer vertical wind shear should be
weaker. As such, the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is
there but it's expected to be more isolated compared to today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Monday night through Wednesday...The main forecast challenge will
be the chance for thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday, the
Fourth of July. There are uncertainties in the timing of
thunderstorm chances as models are not in agreement. The ECMWF has
a trough coming across the rockies on Monday then pushing through
western and central Nebraska Monday night. It then develops a
small closed low across northern Kansas and moves it northeast on
Tuesday. With this solution thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night across western and north central Nebraska as the shortwave
moves across and then a scattered chance of thunderstorms as the
Low moves northeast out of north central Kansas. The GFS solution
is slightly slower with the shortwave moving across and does not
form a closed low until the system has moved east of the area on
Wednesday with the low developing over Iowa. Tending to lean more
to GFS solution at the moment.

Confidence of thunderstorm development on Monday evening into
Monday night lingering into early Tuesday morning is moderate as
current thinking is the shortwave trough will act as the driving
force to initiate storm development as modest instability will be
available along with adequate moisture as dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s with a southeasterly wind. As for Tuesday
afternoon and evening confidence is low at this time for
thunderstorm development as there will be weak forcing across the
area. That being said the environment is unstable. 0 to 3 km most
unstable CAPE is adequate with 3000j/kg across the northeast CWA.
Isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out especially across the
eastern part of the CWA.

Wednesday and Beyond...A ridge will develop and sit over the area
bringing a warm dry airmass over the central US and minimal
opportunities for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

The storm activity across the sandhills should move south this
evening and exit the forecast area by 05z. A second area of storms
near the black hills will move east this evening and perhaps
affect Nrn Neb until 09z.

New storm activity is expected to develop across Ncntl Neb Monday
afternoon...generally affecting areas east of highway 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-032030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
325 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 /225 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across most of western Nebraska,
mainly along and south of a line from Lisco to Ellsworth to
Brownlee to Taylor. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds into the evening hours.

A marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms exist
elsewhere.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms across the entire
outlook area Monday afternoon and Monday night. A few storms will
be strong and approach severe levels, with damaging wind and
large hail possible.

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists on Tuesday as
well, roughly east of a line from Wauneta to Eli. While storms
are not expected to be as numerous as Tuesday, strong to severe
storms are possible.

Dry and hot conditions are expected to move into the area by mid
week, lasting until Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening south
of a line from O'Neill to Valentine.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
750 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     TSTM WND GST     KINGSLEY DAM            41.21N 101.66W
07/02/2017  M77 MPH          KEITH              NE   MESONET

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
804 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N NORTH PLATTE        41.18N 100.77W
07/02/2017  M59 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   MESONET

            HILLCREST SITE

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
813 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SW PAXTON             41.06N 101.44W
07/02/2017  E70 MPH          KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
823 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTH PLATTE            41.13N 100.77W
07/02/2017  U0.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER THE 4TH STREET BY THE HUSKER INN. WATER IS
            FLOWING OVER THE CURB

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
825 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST IMPERIAL                40.52N 101.64W
07/02/2017  M62 MPH          CHASE              NE   ASOS

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
844 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     TSTM WND GST     WELLFLEET               40.75N 100.73W
07/02/2017  E60 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED.

&&

SJACOBS