Special Weather Statement, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
201 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects no precipitation echoes in the forecast area. Skies
over the island chain are mostly sunny. Winds over land are north
to northeast near 10 mph. C-MAN winds, on average, are north to
northeast near 10 knots. Temperatures are near 80 degrees.

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...
A trough of low pressure will pass through the Florida Keys
tonight. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across
the southeastern United States Friday through Saturday. This ridge
of high pressure will slide southward Saturday night and Sunday.
Rain chances in the short term portion of the forecast will be
highest tonight ahead of and along the aforementioned trough of
low pressure. Fresh northeast to east breezes will develop tonight
and persist through at least Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)...
An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across the Florida
peninsula Sunday night through Monday night. This ridge of high
pressure will retreat eastward Tuesday. A weak pressure pattern
will prevail Tuesday night through Thursday. Near zero rain
chances will be advertised in the long term portion of the
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all Keys coastal
waters tonight due to northeast to east winds increasing to 20 to
25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for all Keys
coastal waters Friday and Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely be required for the coastal waters of the Atlantic
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal
waters of Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico Saturday. A Small
Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal waters of the
Atlantic Saturday night. No advisories expected Sunday through at
least Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Tonight, through 12Z, VFR conditions will prevail at both the EYW
and MTH terminals. Gentle northeast winds from 020-040 degrees
will veer to 060 degrees and increase to 13-15 knots, with gusts
to between 20 and 25 knots after 00Z. After 00Z, Brief MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible in isolated or widely
scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Amendments
will be issued as necessary.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1984, 1.90 inches
of rain fell at Key West International Airport. This set the daily
record for maximum rainfall measured in Key West on March 23rd, a
record which still stands 33 years later. Rainfall records at Key
West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  69 79 70 80 / 40 30 20 20
Marathon  71 80 72 82 / 40 30 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...BS
Aviation/Nowcasts....Futterman
Data Collection......Chesser

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Key West FL
230 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-241000-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
230 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all Keys coastal
waters due to sustained northeast to east surface winds increasing
to 20 to 25 knots.

Isolated thunderstorms will impact the Florida Keys, as well as
nearshore and offshore waters surrounding the island chain. The
primary thunderstorm hazard will be cloud to surface lightning
strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for all Keys
coastal waters Friday and Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely be required for the coastal waters of the Atlantic
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal
waters of Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico Saturday. A Small
Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal waters of the
Atlantic Saturday night.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time for Sunday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

BS

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