Flash Flood Warning 123, NWS JSJ

748 
WGCA72 TJSJ 020446
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
1246 AM AST MON OCT 2 2017

PRC027-065-020455-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0123.000000T0000Z-171002T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Camuy PR-Hatillo PR-
1246 AM AST MON OCT 2 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN CAMUY AND WESTERN HATILLO
MUNICIPALITIES HAS EXPIRED...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to remain cautious with ponding on roads and 
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 1850 6681 1832 6679 1832 6682 1834 6682
      1835 6684 1850 6686

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
400 PM AST Sun Oct 1 2017

...Flash Flood concerns continue this afternoon...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
A tropical wave exits the region today, with some convection
developing over the northern and western portions of Puerto Rico
along diurnal sea breezes. This afternoon's thunderstorms are
capable of producing rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches with higher
accumulations possible over areas that see multiple storms. Once
night falls, the convective activity should begin to decrease and
even the western portions of the forecast area should begin to see
drier conditions.

Relatively drier air will push across the Lesser Antilles and make
its way towards the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday.
This should help create a drier pattern for the region heading
into the mid-week period. Some showers remain possible, but
convective coverage should be much less by Tuesday than it has
been over the last couple of days. Temperatures will increase as
less cloud cover is available to block diurnal heating.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through next Sunday)...
The drier air continues over the region until the next round of
tropical moisture pushes westward. This moisture should reach the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Thursday, with increasing rain
chances and coverage expected starting as early as Wednesday. This
air mass will need to monitored as it makes its trek westward to
see if it retains its tropical moisture and to assess what
potential issues it could present to saturated areas of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through the end of the week. One
silver lining is that it appears another round of dry air may be
around to close out next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Higher swells and swell periods are possible toward the latter
half of the week along with a return of Moderate to High Rip
Current Risks as a tropical wave could pass over the region. This
may also bring higher wave heights with possible Small Craft
Advisories for the Atlantic waters 10 NM north of Puerto Rico and
the US Virgin Islands and northward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Concern continues for the threat of a failure at the Guajataca Dam
that could affect the Isabella and Quebradillas municipalities.
Those under evacuation orders downstream on the Rio Guajataca
should not be lulled by a false sense of security back to
evacuated areas.

The Flash Flood Watch for PR and USVI will likely be allowed to
expire tonight as the threat of excessive rainfall diminishes. We
will continue to monitor convection this afternoon as additional
advisories and/or warnings may be necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM AST Sun Oct 1 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...Upper air analysis shows the area in between
two upper lows and weak high pressure and convergence overtop the
area. Water vapor imagery shows drier air moving from upstream
across KPK-NCM towards ISX-IST. Confidence is low for SHRA at
KPK-NCM so have removed mention with VFR conds prevailing with
east winds. A small window exists for SHRA at ISX-IST this
afternoon for SHRA then dry conds after sunset with VFR and light
east winds.

VCTS/TSRA is more probable at the PR TAF sites, especially at
JMZ-JBQ where upslope driven convection will develop this
afternoon and last into the evening hours where the greatest
moisture exists. JSJ-JPS will mention VCTS this afternoon then
transition to VCSH into early this evening then dry conds
afterwards. VFR outside of heavier convection and tempo MVFR in
and immediately around convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  84  80  84 /  30  30  30  30
STT  81  82  82  82 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM AST Monday for Central Interior-
     Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

VI...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM AST Monday for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...None.

&&

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
Emitido por Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia Miami FL
516 AM AST domingo 1 de octubre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-020930-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
516 AM AST domingo 1 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Tronadas con lluvia fuerte y rafagas de vientos seran
posibles hoy y esta noche a traves de Puerto Rico y las aguas
adyacentes.

.Inundaciones...Un aviso de inundaciones repentinas permanece en
efecto para la Represa Guajataca debido a inundaciones repentinas
potencialmente peligrosas rio abajo en el Rio Guajataca.

.Inundaciones...Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas esta en
efecto para todo Puerto Rico, Culebra y Vieques. Cantidades
adicionales de lluvia de 1 a 3 pulgadas con cantidades aisladas de 3
a 5 pulgadas son posibles, especialmente sobre el noreste de Puerto
Rico al igual que sobre Culebra y Vieques. La actividad de aguaceros
y tronadas tambien se puede anticipar a traves de los sectores del
norte central y noroeste de Puerto Rico especialmente durante las
horas de la tarde. Cantidades aisladas mayores son posibles,
especialmente en terrenos mas altos. Esto exacerbara la situacion
actual en Puerto Rico y pudiera resultar en inundaciones adicionales.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para todas las playas de Puerto Rico, Vieques y Culebra.

.Dias Dos a Siete...lunes a sabado

Aguaeros dispersos y tronadas continuaran siendo posibles
diariamente hasta la semana proxima. Se esperan marejadas
adicionales moviendose hacia la region aumentando el riesgo de
corrientes marinas en todas las playas tarde en la semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-020930-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del
Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
516 AM AST domingo 1 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Inundaciones...Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas para todas
las Islas Virgenes Americanas. Cantidades adicionales de lluvia de 1
a 3 pulgadas con cantidades aisladas de 3 a 5 pulgadas son posibles.

.Tronadas...Tronadas con lluvias fuertes y breves vientos en rafagas
seran posibles hoy y esta noche a traves de las Islas Virgenes
Americanas y las aguas adyacentes.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas
para las porciones del este de Santa Cruz.

.Dias Dos a Siete...lunes a sabado

Aguaeros dispersos y tronadas continuaran siendo posibles
diariamente hasta la semana proxima. Se esperan marejadas
adicionales moviendose hacia la region aumentando el riesgo de
corrientes marinas en todas las playas tarde en la semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones
y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
202 PM AST SUN OCT 1 2017

PRZ005-006-011845-
North Central-Central Interior-
202 PM AST SUN OCT 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN VEGA BAJA...FLORIDA...
BARCELONETA...NORTHERN VEGA ALTA...NORTHEASTERN ARECIBO...NORTH
CENTRAL CIALES AND MANATI MUNICIPALITIES...

At 200 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Barceloneta.
the storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florida, Manati, Vega Baja, Barceloneta, Pajonal, La Alianza, Imbery,
Coto Norte, La Luisa, Tiburones, Animas, Bufalo, Tierras Nuevas Pon,
Garrochales, Sabana Hoyos and Tierras Nuevas Poniente.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1850 6633 1832 6652 1841 6667 1850 6659
      1848 6646 1851 6640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 233DEG 4KT 1843 6653

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
202 PM AST domingo 1 de octubre de 2017

PRZ005-006-011845-
Norte central-Interior central-
202 PM AST domingo 1 de octubre de 2017

...UNA TRONADA FUERTE AFECTARA LOS MUNICIPIOS DE VEGA BAJA, FLORIDA,
BARCELONETA, VEGA ALTA, ARECIBO, CIALES Y MANATI...

A las 2:00 PM AST, una tronada fuerte estaba localizada sobre
Barceloneta. La tormenta esta casi estacionaria.

Vientos en exceso de 30 mph, son posibles con estas tormentas.

Desarrollo adicional esta ocurriendo hacia el suroeste en Yabucoa.

Lugares que seran afectados incluyen... Florida, Manati, Vega Baja,
Barceloneta, Pajonal, La Alianza, Imbery, Coto Norte, La Luisa,
Tiburones, Animas, Bufalo, Tierras Nuevas Pon, Garrochales, Sabana
Hoyos y Tierras Nuevas Poniente.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

Rayos frecuentes de nube a suelo estan ocurriendo con esta tormenta.
Los rayos pueden afectar a 10 millas de distancia de la tronada.
Busque refugio seguro dentro de un vehiculo o edificio.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
233 PM AST SUN OCT 1 2017

PRZ001-005-006-011915-
San Juan and Vicinity-North Central-Central Interior-
233 PM AST SUN OCT 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FLORIDA...MOROVIS...NORTH
CENTRAL NARANJITO...VEGA ALTA...NORTHEASTERN ARECIBO...NORTH CENTRAL
OROCOVIS...WEST CENTRAL TOA BAJA...VEGA BAJA...BARCELONETA...
DORADO...NORTHEASTERN CIALES...COROZAL...MANATI AND WESTERN TOA ALTA
MUNICIPALITIES...

At 232 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Coto Norte, or
near Manati, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Ciales, Corozal, Morovis, Florida, Manati, Vega
Baja, Barceloneta, Dorado, Miranda, Pajonal, H. Rivera Colon,
Barahona, Monserrate, Coto Norte, Franquez, Brenas, San Antonio and
Rio Lajas.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1850 6623 1831 6628 1825 6645 1839 6659
      1851 6661 1848 6646 1851 6640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 226DEG 10KT 1840 6645

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
244 PM AST SUN OCT 1 2017

PRZ005-006-008>010-011945-
Northwest-North Central-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Central
Interior-Western Interior-
244 PM AST SUN OCT 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LAS MARIAS...NORTHERN
LARES...WESTERN FLORIDA...SAN SEBASTIAN...ARECIBO...ISABELA...MOCA...
QUEBRADILLAS...ANASCO...CAMUY...NORTHEASTERN MAYAGUEZ...SOUTHWESTERN
BARCELONETA...RINCON...NORTHWESTERN CIALES...HATILLO...NORTHERN
UTUADO...AGUADA AND AGUADILLA MUNICIPALITIES...

At 241 PM AST, strong showers and thunderstorms were developing
across the advisory area. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning can be expected.

In addition, winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arecibo, Aguadilla, Aguada, Moca, Anasco, Camuy, Quebradillas, San
Sebastian, Las Marias, Isabela, Florida, Lares, Hatillo, La Playa,
Aceitunas, Caban, La Alianza, Rafael Capo, Bajadero and Hato Arriba.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1852 6696 1849 6672 1851 6661 1850 6660
      1833 6655 1820 6717 1830 6724 1839 6725
      1843 6717 1849 6718 1852 6712
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 206DEG 1KT 1835 6687

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
244 PM AST domingo 1 de octubre de 2017

PRZ005-006-008>010-011945-
Noroeste-Norte central-Mayaguez y vecindad-Interior Central-
Oeste interior-
244 PM AST domingo 1 de octubre de 2017

...UNA TRONADA FUERTE AFECTARA LOS MUNICIPIOS DE LAS MARIAS...
LARES...FLORIDA...SAN SEBASTIAN...ARECIBO...ISABELA...MOCA...
QUEBRADILLAS...ANASCO...CAMUY...MAYAGUEZ...BARCELONETA...RINCON...
CIALES...HATILLO...UTUADO...AGUADA y AGUADILLA...

A las 2:41 PM AST, aguaceros fuertes y tronadas se desarrollaban
a traves del area bajo advertencia. Lluvia fuerte localmente y
rayos frecuentes son posibles.

Vientos en exceso de 30 mph, son posibles con estas tormentas.

Lugares que seran afectados incluyen...Arecibo, Aguadilla, Aguada, Moca,
Anasco, Camuy, Quebradillas, San Sebastian, Las Marias, Isabela, Florida,
Lares, Hatillo, La Playa,Aceitunas, Caban, La Alianza, Rafael Capo,
Bajadero y Hato Arriba.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

Rayos frecuentes de nube a suelo estan ocurriendo con esta tormenta.
Los rayos pueden afectar a 10 millas de distancia de la tronada.
Busque refugio seguro dentro de un vehiculo o edificio.