Areal Flood Warning 57, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
905 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Moist and unstable air mass associated to a tropical wave will
continue to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern sections of Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, as well as
the US Virgin Islands this evening and overnight. Moreover,
various rivers across the eastern half of Puerto Rico are
currently above stage or near flood stage levels due to the heavy
rains and water surges. Several Flood Advisories as well as Flash
Flood Warnings continue in effect across this area. This activity
may decrease somewhat during the overnight hours, however,
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible at times due to
the trail of moisture associated with a surface low pressure, off
to the north of the Hispaniola.

For tomorrow, abundant tropical moisture will once again produce
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the islands. Since
the soils are already saturated from todays heavy rains, any
additional rainfall will result in additional urban and small
stream flooding, as well as rapid river rises. Ponding of water
along roadways, reduced visibilities, lightning and brief gusty
winds can also be expected in and around the showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

AVIATION...The moisture associated with the tropical wave will
continue to produce scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA over/VCNTY of
TJSJ/TIST and TISX/TNCM/TKPK. MVFR/IFR conditions expected to
continue over these TAFs overnight. SE winds at 10 to 15 kts with
higher gusts, becoming calm to light and VRB early monday morning
and increasing once again at 10 to 15 after 16/13z.

&&

MARINE...Marine conditions will continue hazardous to deteriorate
through Monday. Mariners can expect winds of 10-20 kt and seas up
to 8 feet across the offshore waters and up to 5 feet across the
near shore waters.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...
The tropical wave axis is over eastern Hispaniola, with the bulk
of moisture moving across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
High potential for showers and thunderstorms across most of the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with unstable weather
conditions expected though midweek as a plume of tropical
moisture works its way across the NE Carib in the wake of the
t-wave.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...A tropical wave and its
associated low pressure system will bring unsettled conditions
across the local islands through at least midweek. Late in the
morning, the axis of the tropical wave was located over the Mona
Passage. The wave is forecast to move northwestward and away from
the region tonight and Monday. However, abundant moisture behind
the wave will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms across
Puerto Rico until at least midweek. Operational models suggest
that the bulk of the activity will remain over the Atlantic Waters
north of the USVI and Puerto Rico. However, high moisture content
and instability combined with a low level jet of 20-25 kt at
925MB-850MB will likely result in showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the local islands, especially the southeast quadrant
of Puerto Rico where the models suggest the highest rainfall
accumulations. The best moisture convergence appears to be over
Puerto Rico by Monday afternoon. In terms of rainfall, most of the
islands will receive between 1 to 3 inches of rain, except the
south central and south west Puerto Rico where less than one inch
is expected through Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Weather conditions will remain very moist through Wednesday in
the wake of the tropical wave. Therefore, showers and
thunderstorms can not ruled out especially across the southeast
and northwest Puerto Rico on Wednesday. A drier and more stable
air mass is forecast across the forecast area from Thursday into
the upcoming weekend as a mid- level ridge builds over the
Northeast Caribbean and the Azores High expands farther westward
over the Eastern Caribbean.

AVIATION...
The moisture associated with the tropical wave will continue to
produce scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA over/VCNTY of TJSJ/TIST
and TISX/TNCM/TKPK. MVFR/IFR conditions expected to continue
over these TAFs til at least 16/00z. SHRA/TSRA expected to
diminish overnight. SE winds at 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts,
becoming calm to light and VRB overnight.

MARINE...Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate through
Monday as the tropical wave moves across the regional waters. The
wave will increase the winds and seas across most of the waters,
resulting in winds of 10-20 kt and seas up to 8 feet across the
offshore waters and up to 5 feet across the near shore waters.
Marine conditions will gradually improve as the wave moves away
from the area the second part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  87  80  85 /  30  40  40  30
STT  83  84  83  84 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Monday for St.Thomas...St.
     John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Monday for Anegada Passage
     Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI
     from 10 NM to 19.5N-Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10
     NM to 17N-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and
     Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

&&

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM....CAM

Perspectivas sobre condiciones peligrosas del tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
513 AM AST domingo 15 de octubre de 2017

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-160915-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
513 AM AST domingo 15 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Existe la posibilidad de tronadas con fuertes lluvias y
vientos en rafagas breves hoy, mayormente a traves de porciones de
sureste y norte de PR.

.Inundaciones...Fuertes lluvias podrian resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de rios al igual que deslizamientos cercano a terreno
empinado.

.Vientos...Vientos sostenidos en exceso de 18 nudos se esperan a
traves de las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe.

.Oleaje...Oleaje peligroso de hasta 8 pies se espera a traves de
las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico con oleaje picado de hasta 5 a 6
pies posibles a traves de las aguas cercanas a la costa.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas a traves de las playas en el norte y sureste de PR al igual
que sobre Vieques y Culebra.

.Calor...Vientos alisios del sureste resultaran en temperaturas e
indice de calor sobre lo normal a lo largo de la costa norte de
Puerto Rico, incluyendo el area metropolitana de San Juan.

.Dias Dos a Siete...lunes a sabado

La humedad e inestabilidad continuara permaneciendo alta hasta el
miercoles a medida que humedad tropical profunda continue penetrando
a traves de la region. Por lo tanto, la amenaza de aguaceros y
tronadas a traves de las islas permaneceran alta hasta mediados de
semana. Debido a suelos ya saturados, cualquier lluvia fuerte
adicional resultara en inundaciones urbanas y de rios al igual que
deslizamientos cercano a terreno empinado. Un riesgo moderado de
corrientes marinas tambien continuara hasta mediados de semana a
traves de la mayoria de las playas locales.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones,
deslizamientos y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia en San Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-160915-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
513 AM AST domingo 15 de octubre de 2017

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones del tiempo peligrosas es
para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Tronadas...Existe la posibilidad de tronadas con fuertes lluvias y
vientos en rafagas breves hoy a traves de porciones de las islas.

.Inundaciones...Fuertes lluvias podrian resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de cunetas al igual que algunos deslizamientos cercano a
terreno empinado.

.Vientos...Vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 MPH son posibles a
traves de porciones del norte de las Islas Virgenes Americanas con
vientos de mas 18 nudos a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales
y el pasaje de Anegada.

.Oleaje...Oleaje peligroso de 7 a 8 pies se espera a traves de las
aguas mar afuera al igual que a traves del pasaje de Anegada con
oleaje picado de 5 a 6 pies a traves de las aguas cercanas a la
costa.

.Corrientes marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corriente marinas
a traves de la mayoria de las playas en Santa Cruz.

.Dias Dos a Siete...lunes a sabado

La humedad e inestabilidad continuara permaneciendo alta hasta el
miercoles a medida que humedad tropical profunda continue penetrando
a traves de la region. Por lo tanto, la amenaza de aguaceros y
tronadas a traves de las islas permaneceran alta hasta mediados de
semana. Debido a suelos ya saturados, cualquier lluvia fuerte
adicional resultara en inundaciones urbanas y de cunetas al igual
que algunos deslizamientos cercano a terreno empinado. Un riesgo
moderado a alto de corrientes marinas se espera hasta por lo menos
mediados de semana, mayormente a traves de Santa Cruz.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion amplia de observadores, sin embargo, se
les exhorta a los observadores individuales a reportar inundaciones,
deslizamientos y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia en San Juan.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 PM AST SUN OCT 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLOOD            SALINAS                 17.98N 66.30W
10/15/2017                   SALINAS            PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SECTOR SAN FELIPE, AT BARRIO MOSQUITOS WAS REPORTED
            FLOODED AT ROAD PR-3.

&&

FCASTRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST SUN OCT 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      COAMO                   18.08N 66.36W
10/15/2017                   COAMO              PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDES ALONG ROAD 555 KM5.0/5.5...COAMO ARRIBA SECTOR
            LA VEGA.LIMITING ACCESS TO APPROX 200 FAMILY RESIDENCES.

&&

RMITCHEL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
1000 PM AST SUN OCT 15 2017

PRZ002>004-160400-
Northeast-Eastern Interior-Southeast-
1000 PM AST SUN OCT 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HUMACAO...NAGUABO...
YABUCOA...CANOVANAS...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...SAN LORENZO
AND PATILLAS MUNICIPALITIES...

At 959 PM AST, a very strong thunderstorm was located over Humacao,
producing intense lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Intense cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 1827 6585 1823 6569 1805 6581 1804 6582
      1803 6582 1799 6585 1797 6590 1812 6602
      1831 6588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 153DEG 172KT 1837 6597

ACOTTO

Comunicado Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
1000 PM AST domingo 15 de octubre de 2017

PRZ002>004-160400-
Noreste-Este Interior-Sureste-
1000 PM AST domingo 15 de octubre de 2017

...UNA TRONADA FUERTE AFECTARA LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIOS DE
HUMACAO...NAGUABO...YABUCOA...CANOVANAS...JUNCOS...LAS
PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...SAN LORENZO Y PATILLAS...

A las 9:51 PM AST, una tronada bastante fuerte estaba localizada
sobre Humacao, produciendo rayos intensos, vientos en rafaga, y
lluvias fuertes.

Vientos en exceso de 30 mph son posibles con esta tronada.

Lluvias torrenciales tambien estan ocurriendo con estas tormentas, y
podrian causar inundaciones localizdas. No intente conducir su
vehiculo a traves de carreteras inundadas.

Rayos frecuentes de nube a suelo estan ocurriendo con esta tormenta.
Los rayos pueden afectar a 10 millas de distancia de la tronada.
Busque refugio seguro dentro de un vehiculo o edificio.

ACOTTO/ICOLONPAGAN