Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
828 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

Convection has spread across areas along and just north of I-64.
Outside of the brief rotation on radar, things look to be calming
down with storms showing a slow weakening trend. This could
continue as instability wanes and storms move into an environment
with much less shear. Updated to trim back pops to just the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 356 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

After a wet Friday morning across eastern Kentucky, a dry afternoon
has materialized. That being said, a broken line of storms has
developed from the Indiana/Ohio line south to western Tennessee
along a cold front, with additional development across central Ohio
where surface convergence exists. Not expecting much of this
activity to propagate southeastward into eastern Kentucky given the
worked over airmass in place, although temperatures have warmed into
the upper 70s while dewpoints reside in the upper 60s. This may
allow for a few storms to stream in and develop, most notably across
the Bluegrass region nearer the greater forcing and ongoing
convection.

The aforementioned cold front will remain well north and west of the
Bluegrass region as an upper low ejects out of the Front Range of
the Rockies into the central Plains, keeping eastern Kentucky firmly
in the warm sector as a surface low moves through the Missouri
Valley toward the Corn Belt Saturday. This should keep coverage
isolated to scattered at best through Saturday, with mostly dry
conditions expected tonight. Further hindering greater storm chances
Saturday will be rising heights aloft as shortwave ridging
strengthens from the southeastern U.S. to Hudson Bay. A period of
backing southeasterly surface winds would also keep conditions drier
as downsloping takes place. Given the relatively drier conditions
Saturday, high temperatures should warm into the mid-upper 80s,
flirting with record territory. Much better shower and thunderstorm
chances will materialize Saturday night into Sunday as height falls
occur with an approaching cold front. Heavy rainfall looks to be the
primary threat with this round of showers and storms given the deep
rich moisture in place and lack of dry air to support downburst
winds or lowering freezing levels and hail.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

A deep upper level low will continue to push northeast from the
Upper Midwest into Ontario from Sunday morning through Monday
morning, where it will pivot and transition eastward into Quebec by
Tuesday. This will result in lowering heights across Kentucky
through this time. A shortwave will develop in the troughing Monday
morning across the Northern Plains, shifting southeast towards the
Ohio Valley through midweek, with the axis pivoting across eastern
Kentucky Thursday morning. Models are in fairly good agreement
during this time, however, start to diverge after Wednesday night in
their solutions. The latest ECMWF will keep zonal flow across the
region to finish out the forecast period, while the GFS will keep
troughing in place. Given uncertainty, did not waiver much from the
blended solutions.

At the surface, a low pressure system will accompany the upper level
low, moving into the Upper Great Lakes during the day Sunday,
reaching central Ontario by Sunday night, before shifting eastward
during the day Monday and continuing into Quebec Tuesday. A cold
front will extend southward from this low, dragging eastward across
KY during the day Sunday, reaching eastern KY Sunday night. As the
low continues to move farther northward, the frontal zone will begin
to shear out a bit by the time it reaches our region. Nevertheless,
this will be the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms
ahead of and along the frontal passage during the day Sunday and
into Sunday evening. Strong high pressure will move in just behind
the frontal passage, with a sharp drop in temperatures expected as
well as a quick cut off in moisture as drier air moves into place.
This will effectively cut off any remaining convection behind the
frontal passage, as well as rainfall Monday morning. Held on to pops
slightly longer than yesterdays forecast given the latest model
agreement/trends.

High pressure will remain in place for about a day across the
Commonwealth, before the secondary shortwave produces another
surface low pressure system and resulting cold front, which will
shift southeast towards the region on Tuesday. This will be a very
fast moving system, with the frontal boundary expected to pass
through eastern KY Tuesday evening/night. Warm southerly flow ahead
of this next frontal passage will once again allow for showers and
thunderstorm chances across the CWA starting Tuesday afternoon.
Another surface low pressure system is expected to develop to our SW
and move NE into the state according to the latest ECMWF. Confidence
is still a bit low on the intensity of this system, as well as the
timing, but if it materializes, we could expect precip chances
across much of the CWA from Wednesday and throughout the day
Thursday, finally tapering off for Friday.

Temperatures will be at or just below seasonable normals during this
period, with the combination of clouds/precip and upper level
troughing helping to play a role.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

Mainly VFR conditions will be seen through Saturday evening for
most areas. However, a brief thunderstorm will move through over
the next hour providing a brief period of MVFR at KSYM. Then some
valley fog will likely develop tonight with the recent rainfall
impacting KSME and KLOZ.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
701 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

KYZ044-051-052-210215-
Fleming-Bath-Rowan-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Owingsville, and Morehead
701 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected north of I-64 through 9 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through
early Monday morning, and from Tuesday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-210215-
Montgomery-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-
Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling,
Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead,
Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London,
Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg,
Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan,
Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville,
Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman,
Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins,
Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
701 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through
early Monday morning, and from Tuesday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
928 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

KYZ106>109-200215-
Johnson-Magoffin-Morgan-Wolfe-
928 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MORGAN...JOHNSON...
NORTHERN MAGOFFIN AND NORTHEASTERN WOLFE COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM
EDT...

At 928 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Florress to Lewis to Hazel Green.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts around 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Paintsville, West Liberty, Salyersville, Mason, Henry, Lewis, Moon,
Florress, Lick Branch, Pekin, Falcon, Wonnie, Burning Fork, Kernie,
Collista, Panama, Gillem Branch, Redbush, Relief and Swamp Branch.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3796 8282 3789 8269 3771 8290 3772 8292
      3770 8295 3774 8336 3783 8352 3797 8331
      3798 8302 3796 8299 3799 8297 3799 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 266DEG 22KT 3789 8315 3783 8325 3781 8343

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

KYZ069-111-112-114-200315-
Jackson-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-
1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OWSLEY...NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON...WEST CENTRAL BREATHITT AND LEE COUNTIES...

At 1025 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Vada to Macedonia. Movement was southeast
at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beattyville, McKee, Booneville, Fincastle, Turin, Travellers Rest,
White Ash, Blake, Southfork, Fillmore, Cowcreek, Grass, Maulden,
Mummie, Privett, Bradshaw, Chestnut Gap, Earnestville, Copebranch and
Scoville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3749 8405 3755 8391 3755 8390 3756 8389
      3768 8363 3767 8361 3766 8358 3751 8341
      3734 8377 3735 8378 3733 8380 3733 8383
      3732 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 295DEG 14KT 3763 8358 3746 8396

KAS

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