Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
233 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

Current conditions across the area feature the main threat across
eastern Kentucky being a moist and unstable air mass setting up
over Kentucky ahead of a slowly inching south cold front. Surface
instability has been sufficient enough to get some showers and a
few storms to develop and slide east southeast. Later this
afternoon into the evening, an MCV present over IN will shift east
providing a bit more upper level support but the overall limiting
factor despite decent shear, instability, and weak forcing will
be the shallow lapse rates with this set up. Thus heading into
this evening, the main area of concern will slide south and
southeast KY being the area to watch since some decent sunshine
occurred today as well. Will expect to see a few strong and
possibly a severe storm or two.

Heading into later tonight, the concern shifts to more of a flood
concern. Any training activity this evening will leave a saturated
boundary layer with additional rain moving in on Friday as the low
out west lifts northeast bringing through a second cold front and
increased shower and thunderstorm activity. The persistent ascent
and PWATs in the 1.20 to 1.40 range will continue to present a
flood threat. Will continue to mention this in the HWO through the
day on Friday. The convection finally weakens Friday night as the
front shifts off to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

A few rain showers could hang on into southeast Kentucky Saturday
morning. Otherwise, dry weather should return by midday and last
through the remainder of the weekend as mid level ridging spreads
over the area. A back door cold front may make a run at the area
on Sunday, but not very good model agreement on whether showers
will make it this far west, so kept the weekend dry. Ridging will
strengthen into early next week with milder weather returning to
the area as highs climb back into the 80s. The ridge may break
down by Thursday allowing for our next chance for a few showers or
storms. All in all, a pleasant stretch of spring weather is ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

A low level very unstable air mass and moist as well has lead to
some shower and thunderstorm development early this afternoon.
Thus a few TAF sites have some MVFR cigs with the cumulus
development. This activity will lift a bit as a front slides
southeast bringing a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Will
expect some IFR cigs tonight at each of the sites with this
activity and continuing through tomorrow morning. Expect them to
lift a bit heading into the late morning tomorrow. Winds will be
variable at most locations until increasing from the west and
northwest as the front slides south.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

KYZ051-052-104-106-112000-
Rowan-Elliott-Morgan-Bath-
325 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...EAST
CENTRAL BATH...SOUTHERN ROWAN AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT COUNTIES...

At 325 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Midland, or 9
miles southwest of Morehead, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Salt Lick, Blairs Mills, Yale, Paragon, Lick Fork, Bangor, Midland,
Leisure, Cogswell, Craney, Zilpo, Wrigley, Lytten, Pelfrey and Little
Sandy.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3811 8317 3800 8320 3808 8366 3815 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 275DEG 31KT 3810 8357

GEOGERIAN